When Pakistani president General Pervez Musharraf stated last month that the time had come for his country to consider establishing diplomatic relations with Israel, his comments triggered an intense - and often angry - debate within the country. JID's regional analyst reports on a policy which is set to have a significant impact on the general's attempts to stabilise Pakistan, as well as his own political future.
Despite very considerable opposition to the policy at a popular level, there is an increasing view within Pakistan's ruling circles that the establishment of diplomatic ties with Israel will be vital to the country's future interests.
The following points are noteworthy in this context:
* Concerned over the growing military relationship between Israel and India, the present Pakistani leadership believes that normalising ties might help to limit the scope of the emerging alliance with Delhi.
* Pakistan's military chiefs are also hoping that such a move will facilitate arms sales by Israel.
* The Pakistani government feels that the prospect of recognising Israel might help thwart an impending alliance between the pro-Israel and pro-India lobbies in the USA.
* It also expected that such a move would soften US Congressional opinion over the Bush administration's promise of $3 billion in aid to Pakistan spread over the next five years.
* In recent months Musharraf has come under pressure from Washington on a number of issues other than the continuing campaign against terrorism. Pakistan's recognition of Israel is just one of a list of 'favours' that the USA is requesting from its Pakistani ally.
Establishing normal relations with Pakistan, the only Muslim country which has nuclear capability, is an important strategic goal for Israel. it hopes that gaining diplomatic recognition by a populous Muslim country such as Pakistan will help to undermine hardline opposition towards Israel in other non-Middle Eastern Muslim countries.
Despite determined opposition by most political parties to any move to recognise Israel, Musharraf seems determined to push forward with his agenda in the near future. JID's well-informed sources indicate that the Pakistani authorities, particularly the military leadership close to the president, have already taken the decision to establish direct links Israel.
However, before announcing Islamabad's
recognition, Musharraf is keen to test the likely reaction, both at home
and abroad. It is essential for his political survival that the level of
risk involved will be adequately rewarded - by Washington and Israel -
and that Pakistan's standing in the Muslim world will not be seriously
damaged.