Does the Bihar Governor Buta Singh know the meaning of "Ceaser's wife should be above suspicion"? If so how has he got into the mess when people Bihar were just heaving a sigh of relief that at last Bihar had some respite from the earlier Lalu regime? Does he not know that 90% of politics is perception?
Bihar is now poised for elections in November. After the fractured February Assembly poll results. President's rule will continue until then. Buta Singh had been handpicked by the Congress high command to rule Bihar. He went as a Congress agent to show the credibility of the Congress as a governing power. He was told to be firm in dealing with kidnappers and criminals, which he did initially.
However, election results have forced the Congress to see the reality that it is still in fourth or fifth position and Lalu still counts the state.
So the Congress quickly changed its tactics and has decided to align with Lalu for the November elections. Having decided this, General Secretary-in-charge Digvijay Singh is working out the modalities. As a Congress appointee, Buta Singh was informed that he had to be pro Lalu in all his actions. This conflicts with his governor's mandate to be impartial.
Going by the debate in Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha on President's Rule in Bihar this week, it is evident that Buta Singh has been made the fall guy. The provocation was the recent transfers and postings of some Bihar officers.
Although a committee said to have decided about the transfers, the Chief Secretary of the state Kang has created a crisis by going on protest leave. The NDA seized the opportunity to criticize the Governor and has marched to the President seeking recall of the Governor on the plea that he was doing Lalu's bidding.
Did Buta Singh do all those transfers at the bidding of Lalu? Everyone knows Delhi has tight control over Buta Singh. So there could be only two scenarios. One is that Buta got clearance from Centre and only after that he had gone ahead. Now that he is in trouble, the Congress has distanced itself from Buta's actions as it did in Jharkhand earlier. The second is that he slavishly followed the Centre's diktat of following Lalu's wishes.
The third angle is his own weakness which is said to be the influence of his two sons Lovely and Sweety. Buta's sons are said to be quite influential and interfere a lot in the administration.
Let us take the first scenario. Buta Singh, a seasoned politician who has seen ups and downs in his political life, is more likely to know his limits and would think twice before annoying the high command. Has he overstepped his limits in his enthusiasm?
The top brass of the congress already spread the word that they are annoyed with the behaviour of Buta Singh and he is going to be kept under watch. The Home Minister Shivraj Patil is said to have given a dressing down to Singh during a 45 minute meeting.
Although Patil defended Buta Singh on the floor of the house, senior Congress leaders including Ahmed Patel are talking of taking corrective measures. While they have not yet spelled out the corrective measures, the top brass has already distanced themselves from the actions of Bihar Governor.
One thing is certain. They will not remove Buta Singh at this juncture as it will amount to admitting the allegations made by the NDA.
The second scenario is that Buta Singh has become a total Lalu's man. He has decided to put all his eggs in Lalu's basket as he knows Lalu will protect him. Right now the Congress government at the center cannot afford to annoy Lalu since he holds the loyalties of over 70 parliamentarians.
Look at how each of the players in Bihar has reacted to the situation. All of them have one thing in common and that is the ensuing Assembly elections.
The NDA has got a new issue to beat the RJD and also the Congress by demanding Buta Singh's recall. The NDA will stretch this up to the elections and try to make it an election issue. The JD(U), which was upset about the mess in the BJP, will now use the issue to rile the UPA.
Lalu is sitting pretty and wants to make sure that the arithmetic is right next time. That is why he has allowed the Congress to persuade LJP chief Paswan to join hands with him for the elections. Paswan, however, has his own calculations and may form another front with the CPI and the CPI-ML.
However, in the absence of a consolidated UPA alliance in Bihar, Lalu will have a problem in getting majority. Even if one examines the caste base, Lalu has his Muslims and Yadav base intact amounting to 30 per cent. Of the 70 percent anti Lalu votes, Nitish Kumar has 24 per cent.
The fight is between Lalu and Nitish. The elections will now depend on how the other backward classes vote. While the vocal sections like the upper caste may be with the NDA, it is the others who make efforts to go to the polling booths and therefore they are crucial.
As far as the BJP is concerned, they have their committed votes. As far as the Congress is concerned, it is in the fourth position and cannot even aspire to be in the driving seat. It has already realized the mistake of not supporting Lalu in the February elections just as Lalu has realized that he should become more flexible in seat-sharing.
Buta's behaviour can be explained only by the desire on the part of the Congress party to keep its ally Lalu satisfied at the regional level while simultaneously keeping up the facade of good governance at the Centre.
Hence the attempts to distance itself
from Buta Singh's actions. Will the difficult balancing act pay off in
the elections?