Author: Najam Sethi
Publication: Tehelka
Date: August 12, 2006
URL: http://www.tehelka.com/story_main18.asp?filename=Ne081206essayp04.asp
Introduction: His fundamentalist allies have him by the neck. his people think he is an American puppet. The Taliban are rising again and Musharraf is clueless
Former prime ministers Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif once vowed to chop each other up and throw the pieces into the sea. Now they are best friends, having just signed a pact in exile to overthrow the "tyrannical regime of General Pervez Musharraf". And why ever not? They have much in common. Both have been spawned and spurned in turns by the Pakistani military.
Benazir Bhutto's father ZA Bhutto was plucked out of obscurity by Field Marshal Ayub Khan and made foreign minister of Pakistan. He then went on to become prime minister over the political carcasses of Generals Ayub and Yahya Khan but fell foul of General Zia-ul-Haq when he overarched into Bonapartism. His daughter has been on this or that side of the generals ever since.
Nawaz Sharif was nurtured in the backwaters of old Lahore by General Gilani, the Punjab Governor and a former isi head, and gifted to General Zia. But as pm from 1990 to 1993, the ungrateful fellow stepped on the toes of two Army chiefs and lost his job. Given a second chance in 1997, he sacked Army chief General Jehangir Karamat in 1998, but was dispatched by General Pervez Musharraf in 1999 just as he was readying to sack him and crown himself Amir ul Momineen, or Grand Ruler of the Faithful.
Thus, both Bhutto and Sharif must thank Pakistan Army generals for their good fortune in ruling Pakistan and their own bad politics in being exiled from it.
But their self-inflicted tragedy is nothing compared to the love-hate relationship of the fundamentalist parties, Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) and Jamiat-e-Ulema-e-Pakistan, with the Pakistan Army. The ji got the rough end of the stick from the secular General Ayub Khan in the 60s but was embraced by the Islamist General Zia in the 80s. Since then, the Army has mollycoddled the ji and the Jamiat-e-Ulema for doing its strategic bidding in Afghanistan and Kashmir. But now Musharraf is running with the hare (the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal or six-party religious group comprising the ji and Jamiat-e-Ulema that rules in the North West Frontier Province and Baluchistan and supports Al Qaeda and the Taliban) and hunting with the hound (the US), so trouble is brewing. The mullahs have decided to join forces with Bhutto and Sharif to overthrow Musharraf.
If this is remarkable, so too is the disarray in the ruling Pakistan Muslim League (Quaid) (PML-Q), or King's Party. Having shed two pms since the 2002 elections, there is now a Forward Bloc of oppositionists within the ruling alliance that is led by Farooq Leghari (a former Bhutto-appointed president who switched, sacked her government and later joined hands with Musharraf) and an Outside Block of oppositionists within the alliance comprising turncoats from the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP). Last week, the Muttahida Qaumi Movement, an ally in Sindh, stabbed the PML-Q chief minister by resigning all cabinet positions, and threatened to sit in the Opposition with the PPP.
But the international scene is even more complex and dangerous. Relations with India, Afghanistan and America are slipping. This could impact on the domestic situation and weaken Musharraf's hand further. Consider the contradictions in Musharraf's situation.
He is perceived as a US puppet in a widely anti-American country. But America and the international media are getting increasingly angry with him for not leashing the Taliban and ending US losses in Afghanistan. He is perceived as a peacemaker with India but India is making him look foolish by not reciprocating his flexibility. He talks of democracy and free and fair multi-party elections next year. But he refuses to doff his uniform. He is afraid of getting legitimacy from a new parliament after elections and has all but outlawed the two mainstream parties and exiled their moderate and still-popular leaders. He insists Pakistan is shining because of his economic policies but admits that people in the urban areas are hurting because of them. Worse, Pakistan's tribal periphery is bristling with a quarter of the Army and a great new game replete with foreign intervention, human assets and technical liabilities is underway with unforeseen consequences. Now, India says that Pakistani jehadis have a hand in the Mumbai bombings. Similarly, the US and Afghanistan say Pakistan is responsible for the Taliban's resurgence in Afghanistan. Musharraf denies these charges but counters that India, Afghanistan and "others" have a role in creating and supporting the Baluch insurgency. What's the meaning of this? Where is Musharraf's Pakistan headed?
The scales seem to be tilted against Musharraf's Pakistan because America is on the side of India and Karzai's Afghanistan. This is because the US is building a long-term global-strategic relationship with India against China while trying to maintain a short-term regional-tactical one with Pakistan because of Al Qaeda and the Taliban. Thus, instead of Pakistan benefiting from an internationalisation of the Kashmir dispute through jehadi attacks, it has suffered by being branded a hotbed of terrorism. Similarly, instead of improving its bargaining position vis-à-vis Kabul owing to the Taliban card, Pakistan and Musharraf have now got to contend with the dangerous and destabilising consequences of the birth of Talibanism inside Pakistan as well as a potential deterioration in its relationship with the US.
The developing "squeeze" on Pakistan is increasing. Both the jehadis and the Taliban have become so autonomous that they are now obstructing Pakistan's path of dispute settlement with India and Afghanistan. Domestically, too, they have obliged Musharraf to stick with the mullahs rather than to share power with the progressive parties for political survival. Are there any signs that Musharraf is becoming aware of the pitfalls of this strategy and is taking steps to extricate himself and Pakistan from this mess?
Over 200 Taliban were rounded up in Quetta two weeks ago. A hundred or so Taliban refugees have been marched back into Afghanistan recently. Pakistan has also provided US and British troops some support to combat the Taliban in Afghanistan. In exchange, the UK has banned the Baluchistan Liberation Army (BLA) and the US ambassador to Islamabad has defended Musharraf and criticised President Karzai. Significantly, Islamabad has denounced the perpetrators of the Mumbai blasts and urged India to keep the peace process on track. Incredibly, too, Musharraf is moving to amend the anti-women Hudood laws and said that he wanted to make alliances with "progressive forces", a possible step in the direction of forging a broader policy consensus. Is he serious about changing foreign and domestic policies or is he trying to fob off his detractors?
It is significant that the UK and the UAE have still not extradited the bla leaders to Pakistan, and Washington is insisting on full democracy and civilian control over the military in Pakistan. Questions are being asked in India over whether Musharraf is still the right man with whom to do business. So time is short and options are fleeting. The jehadi and Taliban "assets" have spawned powerful anti-Pakistan and anti-Musharraf "liabilities" at home and abroad. If these are not dismantled swiftly and decisively, Musharraf's Pakistan could plunge into another domestic and international crisis again.
Sethi is editor of The Friday Times and Daily Times in Pakistan