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Publication: Newsinsight.net
Date: September 12, 2006
URL: http://www.indiareacts.com/archivedebates/nat2.asp?recno=1477
In steady underperformance, the UPA government tops.
Why isn't the Manmohan Singh government afflicted with a mid-life crisis? The joke answer may be, it doesn't have a life. It might be true too. Governments usually begin with great promise. They raise hopes. Then midway, the fear of elections takes over. The tough growth policies surrender to populism. The politicians overwhelm the managers. The PM, if he or she also leads the ruling party, gets preoccupied with electoral matters. The government keels over much before the term end. In recent history, it happened with Rajiv Gandhi and P.V.Narasimha Rao. Rajiv was assailed by fears of the Bofors fallout. The mid-term syndrome more classically affected Narasimha Rao's government. But why has this government escaped it? Or has it? It returns us to the no-life proposition. This government took months to stabilize. Two years perhaps. It was not the numbers' stability. That was there. Despite the Left's blow hot blow cold attitude, there was no threat to the government. The fear that if the government fell, the BJP/ NDA would take over, was real. At different times, the Congress leadership used this bogie to keep the Left in line. Often the Left too, especially Jyoti Basu, reiterated this themselves. But despite the numbers' stability, there was no policy direction, nothing to show that the government was headed anywhere. This rudderless state continued for well into the second year of government. The only firmness came in the Indo-US nuclear deal. The PM made it a personal article of faith. Once the PM attaches a personal stake to anything, then no pressure works. Not even Sonia Gandhi's. On the nuke deal, Manmohan Singh had his way. The Left and the BJP may take his commitments to Parliament as a manner of sense of the House resolution. It is a commitment all right. But it is not a resolution. The PM, all said and done, had his way. For the rest though, he was unable to give direction. On economic policy, the Left has held him hostage. The Left's own governments in West Bengal and Kerala follow contradictory economic policies. One is pro-reform. The other is anti. But it has not helped the PM any. For the remarkable economic administrator that the PM is, his stamp of authority is faint. Two and a half years down, he does not appear in control. So, in that sense, despite the numbers' stability, there was no forward movement on policy. The government never came to life, as it were. It was a government that stabilized late. As late as almost its mid term. So when a government starts so delayed, when would a mid-term crisis occur? You might more appropriately call it a commencement crisis. That crisis has not ended. The other reason this government has no life is because the cabinet is so deadbeat. When you don't peak, why would you ever fall? Let us be honest. Who has peaked in this government? For himself, Manmohan Singh would give five upon ten, maybe lower. His ministers, from the brightest like P.Chidambaram to the incompetent like Anbumani Ramdoss, rate less than five. Zero to three. And don't bet on growth. Economy watchers have begun to give a thumbs down for some months now. The cookie could crumble if Manmohan Singh does not push the Left on reforms. But this is not really about rating the government. It is just to tell the government has no life. Neither is the PM keen to inject any. On the way to the NAM summit, he ruled out a cabinet reshuffle but promised a foreign minister. We will see when that happens. But frankly, how can any PM get on with this cabinet? What can they deliver, to name just two, Arjun Singh and Shivraj Patil? All the Congress ministers owe their jobs to Sonia Gandhi. To her, therefore, they owe their loyalty. The PM, thus, is a minimum PM. He is probably the most powerless PM in recent years. With neither the PM at his peak, but rather in the dumps, nor the ministers performing in their fiefs, the government has never reached a high ground, forget a summit, to qualify for a fall. If you are a consistent low performer, the smallest spikes will show. The taper down causes no alarm. Which is why, if you notice, there is no alarm either in the government or the party leadership about the steady underperformance. No one worries about the election ahead. The smugness does not go away despite the Congress rout in West Bengal and Kerala, being forced into a coalition government in Assam, losing Bihar again, and very likely losing UP as well next year. The point is also this. Mid-life crisis or mid-term despair is a frame of mind. If you have gotten used to mediocrity, a below par performance, or don't know better, you will be comfortable with the stability and security that mediocrity and underperformance bring. Stability and security become a pursuit. Anything but rocking the boat. You don't want to take chances with life or the government. That's what's happened to this government. This government has become risk averse. Not having taken risks, this government does not feel risked. Can this state of affairs continue? In politics, it is called drift. Drift was not evident in Rajiv Gandhi's primeministership. He just choked up. Narasimha Rao let go after he lost some southern state elections. Drift was more evident in Indira Gandhi's last term, pre-Operation Bluestar. It is very hard to imagine that she would have returned with any comforting majority. Political historians might discover that her assassination and Rajiv's delayed coalition politics by a decade if not more. It might also pose an interesting conundrum. Does drift lead to coalition politics? Or are they mutually assisting? This though is both a coalition government and adrift. The future obviously depends on the political environment. The political environment never remains the same. But it has changed in undefined, inconclusive ways. The political constants, so-called constants, have changed. The bankable votes are no longer so bankable. Let us not be more specific. But whether it means another term of drift or a decisive change is hard to say. It is no easier to reckon if another will replace this set of drifters. But as citizens, you and I are sunk if government after government gets to believe they lose nothing by not performing - and everything to gain.