Absolute majority for BJP front predicted
Posted by Ashok Chowgule (ashokvc@giasbm01.vsnl.net.in)
Hindustan Times
August 31, 1999
Title: Absolute majority for BJP front predicted
Auhtor: HT Correspondent
Publication: Hindustan Times
Date: August 31, 1999
THE BHARATIYA Janata Party and its allies are poised to gain an
absolute overall majority in the 13th Lok Sabha. This is the outcome
of a poll survey conducted earlier this month in 76 Lok Sabha
constituencies spread over 15 States.
While giving a total of 300 seats to the BJP-led alliance, called the
NDA, the survey forecasts a combined tally of 146 down by 20 seats
when compared to the 1998 results for the Congress and its regional
partners.
Of the 300 seats for the NDA, the BJP is expected to get 190 seats.
The Congress by itself is likely to win in only 123 constituencies.
The ruling alliance's seat-share is expected to marginally decline,
from 89 to 75, in the North. But the survey shows major NDA gains (51
seats) in the Southern, Eastern and Western States. Among the factors
ostensibly helping the BJP-led front are the Congress split in
Maharashtra and a likely poor showi ng by the CPI-M and the
Congress-RJD combine in West Bengal and Bihar, respectively. Even in
Andhra, the BJP-TDP alliance appears headed for "substantial" gains.
According to the survey, the BSP is gaining at the BJP's cost in UP.
The Congress and its allies also seem to be faring better in UP,
Punjab and Tamil Nadu. But these gains are more than neutralised in
the Eastern and Western Zones.
Commissioned by The Hindustan Times, the survey was conducted by
ACNielsen, formerly known as MRAS and reputed to be the world's
largest market research company. The findings are based on interviews
with 13,959 voters between August 14-23.
The HT-ACNielsen analysis is based not just on the respondent's
voting intention but also his (claimed) previous voting behaviour. The
swing in the voting intention is
the primary input in the model developed by ACNielsen.
The projected increase in the NDA's aggregate score is on account of
a 1.8 per cent vote swing from 39.8 per cent in 1998 to 41.6 in 1999.
The Congress and its allies, despite the fall in the number of seats
they are likely to win, are also expected to register a 1.4 per cent
vote growth, from 29 per cent to 30.4.
A decline of 17 seats, from 114 to 97, is predicted in the combined
score of other parties: The Left, the BSP, the SP, the AGP, the TMC,
the HVP, the RPI and the National Conference besides the Nationalist
Congress Party.
This is because of the 3.2 per cent erosion in their vote bank in
favour of the BJP and the Congress. The Janata Dal which split a few
weeks ago, was, for the purpose of the survey, counted among the
parties that are independent of the two main alliances. However, the
Samata Party and the Lok Shakti, which have since formed the Janata
Dal (United) in tandem with the Sharad Yadav faction of the JD, were
included in the BJP-led alliance.
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