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Posted by Ashok Chowgule (ashokvc@giasbm01.vsnl.net.in)
San Jose Mercury
September 13, 1999.
Title: U.S. says Pakistan has full Chinese missile system Author: Publication: San Jose Mercury Date: September 13, 1999. WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A new U.S. intelligence report states publicly for the first time that Pakistan has received M-11 short-range ballistic missiles from China, raising once again the question of whether U.S. law warrants imposing tougher sanctions against Beijing, administration and congressional sources said Monday. The unqualified conclusion, contained on page five of the declassified intelligence report on missiles issued Thursday, states: "Pakistan has Chinese- supplied M-11 short-range ballistic missiles." The statement, which reflects the consensus of the U.S. intelligence community, revives a long-simmering dispute between the intelligence community and the policymakers. The State Department and the White House have long taken issue with such assessments, arguing that while Pakistan has acquired components of M-11 missiles, the evidence does not prove Islambad actually possesses complete systems. The issue of whether Pakistan possesses only missile components or whether it has full systems is significant because China could be subjected under U.S. law to more serious sanctions for such a transfer than have been imposed in the past. But imposing sanctions now could cause new problems in U.S. efforts to work cooperatively with Beijing on many issues and, administration officials said, they are unlikely to happen. "That's the first time that I'm aware of in an unclassified forum that there has been that specific a statement" on China transferring complete M-11 systems to Pakistan, one administration official said about the new intelligence report. "This is obviously a more significant statement than what has been said before publicly" about the extent to which Pakistan possesses M-11 capability, he told Reuters. A congressional source agreed, saying: "That's the first time in an unclassified document that the administration has admitted categorically that Pakistan has Chinese-supplied missiles." "Now the question is, when is the administration going to impose sanctions?" he added. In fact, the National Air Intelligence Center at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base in Ohio hinted at the intelligence community's finding in an April 1999 report on ballistic and cruise missile threats. It included Pakistan in a chart on short-range ballistic missile systems, indicating that Islamabad had fewer than 50 M-11 launchers. But that was a rather obscure reference and escaped wide notice, even among administration experts. Nevertheless, the fact that Pakistan has complete Chinese M-11 systems is one of "the worst kept secrets.... It has been common knowledge" in the intelligence community and the government for years, one intelligence source said. A State Department official insisted that the finding contained in the latest national intelligence estimate on missiles -- which includes input from the department's own intelligence bureau -- is not based on any new information. As a result, it does not change the view of policymakers that there is not sufficient proof that Pakistan has complete missiles, he told Reuters. "In terms of a determination, we have not reached a legal conclusion that Pakistan has received full M-11 missiles," the official said. He noted that the United States has a responsibility to impose "very high evidentiary standards" before imposing sanctions, especially when a government like China has denied providing Islamabad with complete missile systems. In two instances -- once by President George Bush's administration in 1991 and again by President Clinton in 1993 -- the United States imposed mild sanctions on China for transferring M-11 components to Pakistan. But the sanctions were lifted in both cases when Beijing agreed to, but did not formally sign, the global Missile Technology Control Regime, which aims to ban the spread of ground-to-ground missiles capable of sending a 1,000 pound payload 186 miles. The sanctions were category 2 sanctions, covering the transfer of missile components and dual-use items. Harsher sanctions are called for in event of a category 1 violation, covering the transfer of complete systems. http://www.sjmercury.com/breaking/docs/039139.htm
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