U.S. says Pakistan has full Chinese missile system
Posted by Ashok Chowgule (ashokvc@giasbm01.vsnl.net.in)
San Jose Mercury
September 13, 1999.
Title: U.S. says Pakistan has full Chinese missile system
Author:
Publication: San Jose Mercury
Date: September 13, 1999.
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A new U.S. intelligence report states publicly
for the first time that Pakistan has received M-11 short-range
ballistic missiles from China, raising once again the question of
whether U.S. law warrants imposing tougher sanctions against Beijing,
administration and congressional sources said Monday.
The unqualified conclusion, contained on page five of the declassified
intelligence report on missiles issued Thursday, states: "Pakistan has
Chinese- supplied M-11 short-range ballistic missiles."
The statement, which reflects the consensus of the U.S. intelligence
community, revives a long-simmering dispute between the intelligence
community and the policymakers.
The State Department and the White House have long taken issue with
such assessments, arguing that while Pakistan has acquired components
of M-11 missiles, the evidence does not prove Islambad actually
possesses complete systems.
The issue of whether Pakistan possesses only missile components or
whether it has full systems is significant because China could be
subjected under U.S. law to more serious sanctions for such a transfer
than have been imposed in the past.
But imposing sanctions now could cause new problems in U.S. efforts to
work cooperatively with Beijing on many issues and, administration
officials said, they are unlikely to happen.
"That's the first time that I'm aware of in an unclassified forum that
there has been that specific a statement" on China transferring
complete M-11 systems to Pakistan, one administration official said
about the new intelligence report.
"This is obviously a more significant statement than what has been
said before publicly" about the extent to which Pakistan possesses
M-11 capability, he told Reuters.
A congressional source agreed, saying: "That's the first time in an
unclassified document that the administration has admitted
categorically that Pakistan has Chinese-supplied missiles."
"Now the question is, when is the administration going to impose
sanctions?" he added.
In fact, the National Air Intelligence Center at Wright-Patterson Air
Force Base in Ohio hinted at the intelligence community's finding in
an April 1999 report on ballistic and cruise missile threats.
It included Pakistan in a chart on short-range ballistic missile
systems, indicating that Islamabad had fewer than 50 M-11 launchers.
But that was a rather obscure reference and escaped wide notice, even
among administration experts.
Nevertheless, the fact that Pakistan has complete Chinese M-11 systems
is one of "the worst kept secrets.... It has been common knowledge" in
the intelligence community and the government for years, one
intelligence source said.
A State Department official insisted that the finding contained in the
latest national intelligence estimate on missiles -- which includes
input from the department's own intelligence bureau -- is not based on
any new information.
As a result, it does not change the view of policymakers that there is
not sufficient proof that Pakistan has complete missiles, he told
Reuters.
"In terms of a determination, we have not reached a legal conclusion
that Pakistan has received full M-11 missiles," the official said.
He noted that the United States has a responsibility to impose "very
high evidentiary standards" before imposing sanctions, especially when
a government like China has denied providing Islamabad with complete
missile systems.
In two instances -- once by President George Bush's administration in
1991 and again by President Clinton in 1993 -- the United States
imposed mild sanctions on China for transferring M-11 components to
Pakistan.
But the sanctions were lifted in both cases when Beijing agreed to,
but did not formally sign, the global Missile Technology Control
Regime, which aims to ban the spread of ground-to-ground missiles
capable of sending a 1,000 pound payload 186 miles.
The sanctions were category 2 sanctions, covering the transfer of
missile components and dual-use items. Harsher sanctions are called
for in event of a category 1 violation, covering the transfer of
complete systems.
http://www.sjmercury.com/breaking/docs/039139.htm
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