BJP front to cross 300 mark: Survey
Pioneer News Service / New Delhi
The Pioneer
September 3, 1999
Title: BJP front to cross 300 mark: Survey
Author: Pioneer News Service / New Delhi
Publication: The Pioneer
Date: September 3, 1999
The Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance would get
a total of 308 to 318 seats in the forthcoming elections, according to
the national poll survey carried out for The Pioneer by the Research &
Development Initiative.
The Congress and its allies are tipped to secure 145 to 150 seats, 20
seats less than what they had in the 12th Lok Sabha. The opinion poll,
conducted in 81 representative parliamentary constituencies spread
over 16 States last week, reveals that the Congress on its own would
secure the lowest tally since Independence.
Based on interviews with 14,850 eligible voters, the survey observes
that the initial euphoria of nuclear explosion and Kargil is gone and
has been replaced by issues of stability and Ms Sonia Gandhi's foreign
origin.
As for the leader who could lead the nation to the new millennium, 55
per cent voted for Mr Atal Bihari Vajpayee and 33 per cent for Ms
Sonia Gandhi.
On the Congress president's foreign origin issue, 48 per cent persons
said she should not hold high political office. However, 38 per cent
felt the origin of the person does not matter as long as he/she shows
exemplary commitment towards the country. Of the 300-plus seats
predicted for the NDA, the BJP alone would cross the 200-seat mark for
the first time. In the last Lok Sabha, the party had 182 seats.
The Congress, on the other hand, may manage just 125 seats on its own,
which would be much lower than what it secured in 1977 (154), 1996
(137) or 1998 (142).
The survey attributes the NDA gain to the pre-poll split in the
Congress by Mr Sharad Pawar, as well as the formidable electoral
alliances the BJP had struck in Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal, Karnataka
and Bihar.
These two factors, according to the poll, had considerably weakened
the Congress. However, the Congress is slightly better placed in Uttar
Pradesh, Punjab and Kerala.
In this context the poll notes that except in Punjab, where the
Congress will gain at the cost of NDA constituent Shiromani Akali Dal,
in the other two States, the party eat into the voteshare of third
front parties like the Samajwadi Party and the Left Front.
According to the survey, both the BJP and Congress-led fronts would
gain in terms of projected vote share. While the NDA would increase
its vote share by 3.9 per cent to reach 41 per cent, the Congress-led
alliance would poll 33 per cent of the total votes. The two fronts
would not be cutting into each other's vote share, but gaining at the
cost of smaller parties, which is expected to lose 7.8 per cent vote.
State-wise, the poll predicts a spectacular showing for the BJP in
Gujarat where it is tipped to bag 18 of the 26 Lok Sabha seats,
improving its 1998 tally by two.
In Maharashtra too, the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance is likely to bag 28 of
the 48 seats, a net gain of 18 over previous year's tally. The survey
findings indicate that Mr Pawar's Nationalist Congress Party would cut
into the Congress vote by 19 per cent and the BJP-Sena combine vote by
six per cent in the State.
In Karnataka, the inclusion of the Janata Dal's Patel faction in the
BJP/Lok Shakti combine does not seem to have harmed the NDA's
prospects in Karnataka. The survey predicts 18 seats for the alliance,
a gain of two over 1998.
In Bihar too, the survey finds the BJP/Samata/JD(U) alliance gaining
five seats and increasing its vote-share by six per cent.
Interestingly, though the RJD/Congress alliance would lose seats, it
would register a gain of two per cent votes.
In West Bengal, the survey predicts a spectacular gains by the
Trinamool Congress. However in Tamil Nadu, the survey says that the
BJP-DMK tie-up could face a stiff resistance from the AIADMK/Congress
combine in some pockets. In other words, it would not be a sweep as
expected in the State.
The poll predicts that the DMK-BJP alliance would bag 24 seats and the
AIADMK-Congress combine 15. The TMC is unlikely to get a single seat.
In Andhra Pradesh, the survey indicates a tally of 30 for the BJP-TDP
combine, a gain of 10 at the cost of the Congress. In this election
the BJP has made stability as one of its poll planks. But as many as
17 per cent of the respondents say that constant conflict among the
constituents has been the biggest failure of the BJP-led alliance.
Another 16 per cent feel that the Government was unable to provide
stability.
Despite its gains, not many people see the BJP as poor-friendly. It is
still regarded as the party of Brahmins and Banias.
The sample survey conducted by the RDI was based on structured
questionnaires administered to respondents selected by following
systematic random sampling procedure. Extensive qualitative reasearch
was carried out in over 50 Lok Sabha constitutencies to validate the
quantitative findings. The margin of error is expected to be around
2.5 per cent.
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