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When you have a military ruler firmly in place, and who had further fortified himself with the power to make or break governments at his sweet will, the outcome of highly flawed elections to State and national legislatures ought to be of little consequence. At least to his own survival.
Therefore, the results of Pakistan's general election should not affect the fortunes of General Pervez Musharraf. At least that is how the General and his coterie would view the results.
The hung outcome in the election to the National Assembly suits the military dictator very well. He can influence the formation of the national government, ensuring that his real opponents who constitute the main two parties are denied a say in government.
Since no party has come anywhere near the half way mark in the 272-member National Assembly, the General would not be in a great hurry to help the emergence of a viable government.
For sure, he can turn around and boast that he had done his duty by democracy, proved his credentials by holding the general election, and it wasn't his fault if the people failed to elect a new government. The lack of mandate for a new government, the General may convince himself, was a mandate for continued military ruler. Given the US's continued dependence on him to wage her war against terrorism, the world at large would do little to unsettle President Musharraf from his high perch in Islamabad. Jackboots will rule Pakistan, election or no farcical elections.
A far more disturbing outcome is the good showing by the rabidly anti-American and rabidly pro-Al Qaeda and pro-Taliban conglomerate of six Islamic fundamentalist groups. The Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal, a hotchpotch alliance of Islamic groups, has won majorities in the two most sensitive provinces border Afghanistan and which are known to have served as the recruiting and training grounds for the Islamic militants, including the Taliban.
The MMA had already captured a clear majority in the North West Frontier Province by Friday evening and appeared set to do so in Baluchistan as well. The rise of these Islamic jehadi groups openly protesting against the ongoing US-led campaign against terrorism should worry peace-loving people everywhere. These groups had only one slogan: anti-Americanism.
And they had one hero: Bin Laden. The flushing out of the remnants of the Taliban and Al Qaeda from NWFP and Baluchistan could become difficult if the MMA was allowed to occupy the seats of power.
But, like it or not, the rise of the jehadi MAM would further strengthen the grip of General Musharraf over the sinews of power in Pakistan. For, he would now be able to extract a bigger price in money and machines from the Americans in the name of neutralising the threat posed by the MAM. And the helpless Americans would be only too willing to support the military ruler, and help secure his `gaddi', if only to track down the fugitive terrorists from Afghanistan.
The short-sighted US policy which
easily abandons cherished ideals of basic human rights and democratic self-rule
for immediate gains has once again been exposed as a failure in Pakistan.
The US love affair with yet another Pakistani General is bound to go sour.
But not before the General has taken them for a thorough ride. As for the
impact on India, there is little that can be expected to change for the
better. If any thing, the rise of the Islamic fundamentalists is bound
to increase the threat from the jehadi-terrorists to this country.
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