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The North East Council (NEC)'s Business Summit was to have been held this week at Delhi. It has been postponed on the orders of the Election Commission. It is a missed opportunity and could be misinterpreted in the Northeast. The NEC consists of Governors and Chief Ministers of all the eight northeastern States- Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Mizoram, Manipur and Tripura. It is chaired by the Assam Governor, at present, Lt Gen (retd) Ajay Singh. Seven out of these eight States were once part of greater Assam. The NEC, established in 1972 as an advisory body, has little to show by way of results.
Although it upgraded itself as a regional planning organisation, it has no teeth. The NEC is meant to integrate the security and development. Lt Gen HS Kanwar, Director General Assam Rifles, who reports to the MHA, is the present security advisor to the NEC. At its last meeting in the Sikkim capital, Gangtok, members were still quibbling over what comes first: Security or development, whereas it is common knowledge the two are interdependent. Development is in fact a tool for combating insurgency though both Afghanistan and Iraq and, at home, Jammu & Kashmir have shown that a minimum level of stability and security is essential before development projects can be undertaken. Their success would be contingent on the extent of the involvement of the people.
The northeastern States share just one per cent of their border with 'Mother India'. The remaining 99 per cent are contiguous with foreign countries. The Northeast is still called the forgotten frontier, linked tenuously with the mainland by a 20 kilometre-stretch called the Siliguri Corridor. Strategically, it is more sensitive than J&K. Shillong, the capital of Meghalaya, is closer to Bangkok than to Delhi and many mainstream Indians confuse Bangkok with Gangtok.
The sarcasm in the Northeast about joining the mainstream may have lost its bark but not the bite. This was evident from a two-day workshop last week in Shillong organised by the Assam Rifles. In the region, social and ethnic structures are still fragile, political maturity is nascent and emotional integration only notional. The creation of Bangladesh has hampered development. Yet the potential for turning it into an economic hub given its vast oil, gas, hydropower and other natural resources is immense. A joint study by Indian Oil and a British company has found India's Northeast to be richer in oil and gas than the Middle East. But the best news from the Northeast is that insurgency has been marginalised. The romance with insurgency is over.
What is left are small groups fighting over a share of the cake. Even this residual insurgency would be contained but for the sanctuaries for the UnderGround (UG) in Bhutan, Bangladesh and Myanmar. Removing these is the combined function of diplomacy and military action. More worrying than the sanctuaries is the politics of insurgency: The nexus between politicians, UG, bureaucrats and the underworld in some States, Manipur and Tripura leading. The law and order situation in these two States borders on insurgency due to electoral politics.
Sikkim and Mizoram by comparison are success stories with the highest levels of development and per capita income. Former Chief Minister Nar Bahadur Bhandari used to say: "Sikkim has merged with India but it will never let itself be submerged," referring to migration. His successor Pawan Chamling runs a model State despite poor infrastructural connectivity. He has neither allowed a single Maoist to enter Nepali-predominant Sikkim which shares half its western border with Nepal, nor the Gorkha politics of North Bengal to disturb his one-party rule.
Mizoram has an equally enviable record of political and internal stability, despite a two-decade long insurgency. At least two of its Chief Ministers were leaders in the UG. Present Chief Minister Zoramthangla was deputy to the founder of the UG Mizoram, Laldenga. Mizos still clamour for leaders like Lalthanhawla, a former Chief Minister not in the UG. Except for the foothills, Arunachal Pradesh is peaceful. The capacity of the UG in Assam has been reduced to merely extortion and ransom. Insurgency has been contained.
In Nagaland, the two main insurgent groups are overground and bound by a ceasefire and dialogue till 2004. Nagaland is the mother of all insurgencies in the Northeast. Local politics and the demand for Greater Nagaland have imperilled the security situation in Manipur, aided by the multiplicity of security forces operating autonomously outside the Unified Headquarters. That is one reason cited for Choorachandpur being called a 'liberated zone'. Tripura is the other case of mixing politics with insurgency. That leaves Meghalaya relatively unaffected by neighbouring insurgencies despite rivalries between Khasis, Bengalis and Gorkhas.
The nexus with UG in the region is rampant. In October 2002, the Chief Minister of Megha-laya admitted two of his Ministers had links with the UG. One of them-real name Adolf Lu Hitler-was arrested. Similarly, a Minister was arrested in Arunachal Pradesh in May 2003. Things were so bad in 1995, that the Chief of Army Staff, Gen SR Chowdhury, and Eastern Army Commander, Lt Gen RN Batra, had publicly elaborated on the infamous nexus and how it was undermining operations of the security forces. In Manipur, the Government was even accused of hindering security operations against the UG. In 1997, Union Home Minister Indrajit Gupta and the Manipur Chief Minister signed an MOU to investigate the nexus but the report remained underground.
The joke at the time was that while Manipur Chief Minister Reishang Keishing, a failed politician was trying to be a good soldier, Gorkhaland's Subhash Ghisingh, a failed soldier was attempting to become a good politician. It is not just in J&K but in the Northeast too that the security forces have been combating insurgency with one hand tied behind their back while the State is cohabiting with non-state actors.
Without a regional macro-strategy on security and development, it would be difficult to make the Northeast an investment-friendly region. Because law and order is a state subject, each State acts in partisan and not national interest. For instance, Assam has a Unified Headquarters, but Manipur with 18 UG groups and nearly a dozen security outfits, does not.
The 168-year old Assam Rifles, called the sentinels of the Northeast, will soon be taking over operational control from the army in the region barring Assam. This is both a reflection of the capacity of the Assam Rifles and the improved security situation. In its new role, it will also be manning the border with Myanmar. By 2007, it will expand from the present 40 to 46 battalions and in time take charge of Assam too. Its contribution to the security and development of the Northeast is significant. It is now bringing 250 schoolchildren from the rest of India to the region for a familiarisation tour. It has helped in shaping the environment and in regional integration as no other fighting force has been able to do.
If development is the best safeguard
against insurgency, creating a middle class of stakeholders is vital for
its sustenance. It is the collective will of the people of Nagaland that
has acted as both an incentive to the peace process and a deterrent for
its detractors. Some bold steps are needed to strengthen internal security
and stability. Foremost among these is depoliticising national security
and cobbling together a consensus on it. Politicians with proven links
with the UG should be sent to Siachen and left there. The NEC must be revitalised
by making it a statutory body with the Home Minister as its Chairman. Only
a regional approach to security and development will make the Northeast
an economic hub. While the Lalthanhawlas and the Chamlings can show the
way, it is ultimately the people who will win the war against alienation
and insurgency. The distance between Delhi and Shillong however can't change.
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