Author: Swapan Dasgupta
Publication: The Pioneer
Date: November 27, 2005
It takes precious little time to alter the chemistry of political tittle-tattle. Barely a fortnight ago, the buzz in the know-all circles of the Capital centred on an emerging Third Front.
Salivating over the prospect of wooing Muslims with a bout of old-fashioned communal politics, the Left went hammer and tongs at the UPA Government for its alleged assault on India's "independent" foreign policy in relation to Iran.
If Manmohan Singh did not relent, the CPI(M) threatened, more than 100 Lok Sabha MPs would do what a man had to do. There was even some, presumably baseless, talk of a flamboyant leader from Uttar Pradesh actually holding out the bait of lucrative portfolios in a Third Front Government.
The voters of Bihar have played spoilsport. Rejecting Lalu Yadav and his Pol Pot version of social justice is one thing. The voters upset the calculations of punditry by actually giving a decisive mandate to Nitish Kumar and his alliance. Even Tuesday's mid-morning "secular" talk of massive gains for the Janata Dal (U) and losses for the BJP turned out to be illusory. Bihar was an outright NDA victory, effected through a synergy of two parties which have been battling together since 1995.
The effect of an NDA victory in Bihar on national politics should not be underestimated. By steadfastly holding together and mounting a responsible campaign that focussed on issues relevant to the state, the NDA has demonstrated that its obituary notices were a trifle premature. For the BJP in particular, Bihar was proof of its continuing relevance, despite the damaging inner-party controversies that have sullied its image since last summer.
The effect of Bihar on estranged NDA partners such as the TDP, AGP, AIADMK and INLD is worth observing. Simple vote arithmetic having again demonstrated its relevance in Bihar, it is only a matter of time before all the constituents realise that the alternative to swimming together is permanent irrelevance.
Yet, the translation of objective conditions into reality requires political initiative. In Bihar, almost every aspect of the NDA campaign was planned, managed and executed by the so-called "second generation" leadership of both the BJP and JD(U).
It may sound brutal, but the fact remains that the contribution of the stalwarts was either very nominal or, at times, negative. At one time, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, L K Advani and George Fernandes resuscitated anti-Congressism and forged the NDA.
In Bihar we have witnessed Nitish Kumar, Sharad Yadav, Arun Jaitley and Sushil Modi taking that legacy forward. By blending pragmatism and idealism with determination they managed a bitterly fractious polity, harmonised each other's strengths and created a winning combination. Together they demonstrated that the scepticism over the leadership qualities of the "second generation" is utterly misplaced.
The successful Bihar campaign, in a sense, holds out important lessons for a BJP that remains in denial about its post-Advani plans. Over the past six months the BJP has remained in business, not because of the veterans, but despite them. With Advani's moral authority eroded after the Jinnah controversy and Vajpayee more or less out of active politics, it is the "second generation" which has worked tirelessly, individually or in tandem, to keep the party going.
From Narendra Modi in Gujarat, Vasundhara Raje in Rajasthan, Harshvardhan and Vijay Goel in Delhi and Jaitley on the Volcker issue, individuals and State units have seized the initiative without waiting for Central direction. What is even more striking is that in many cases, the initiatives have met with the disapproval of old-timers who are confronting their own redundancy with gracelessness.
At this juncture, the BJP and the NDA need some Central direction. It is just not enough to bank on anti-incumbency. This is the reason why the BJP cannot afford another interim president who lacks authority. It is time to give a full term to someone who is ideologically sound, politically pragmatic and temperamentally modern. There is no shortage of competent candidates and there is equally no dearth of people who can constitute the collective leadership.