Author:
Publication: NewsInsight.net
Date: November 13, 2006
URL: http://www.newsinsight.net/archivedebates/nat2.asp?recno=1521
At the Indo-Pak talks tomorrow, be prepared
for the worst.
What position must India take in the foreign
secretary level talks tomorrow and the day after? One of caution, but be prepared
for the worst. Here's why. A critical environment change has come from the
Republican defeat in the United States and the Democrats' control of Congress.
There is a new defence secretary, Robert Gates. He is a pragmatist, a team
player, unlike his predecessor, Donald Rumsfeld, who was a unilateralist.
And the Bush administration's focus has changed, though it is not being articulated
as such. A withdrawal from Iraq will happen, sooner than later. It will be
a face saving withdrawal. That withdrawal can take anywhere between six months
to a year, and could begin three months from now or six. The key thing is
the decision to withdraw, and one can see it there in the play of things.
At any rate, this withdrawal, sooner or later, will preoccupy the Bush administration.
It will preoccupy it at the cost of preventing a Taliban overrun of Afghanistan.
It will not be a straightforward overrun. Pragmatist Gates will increasingly
expect Nato forces to take over while US troops disengage to return home.
Since Nato forces, or precisely European forces, won't have the same level
of commitment to preserve the Hamid Karzai government as, say, American forces,
the Taliban takeover looks inevitable now. Once the US leaves Afghanistan,
it won't come in again, very likely not even if Karzai is deposed. It may
not happen at all this way. But it looks very likely to happen. The mood has
changed in America. The Democratic victory clearly indicates America does
not want to prosecute foreign wars with the same ideological muscularity and
stridency as before. Whatever shape that takes in Iraq, Afghanistan looks
increasingly a goner. If it is the Taliban march towards Kabul, the Pakistan
army and the ISI won't be far behind. With the Taliban takeover, Pakistan
has its dream fulfilled again. Of using Afghanistan to gain strategic depth
against India. Our calculations of opening a second front against Pakistan
from Afghanistan may evaporate. Once Afghanistan comes under Taliban sway,
the pressure of terrorism will grow again in Jammu and Kashmir. We can withstand
the pressure. We have before. But it won't make it any easier. That is one
aspect we must prepare for, and which should inform the foreign secretary
level talks with Pakistan tomorrow. There is an added side to the weakening
of the Bush administration and the eventual collapse of Afghanistan. Even
as a weak Bush administration would be exploited by the Pakistan army and
intelligence to take over Afghanistan, simultaneously, jihadi groups will
be encouraged to peak terrorism in J and K to get the Kashmir issue Americanized/
internationalized again. But in this exercise, the Pakistan military would
be calculated to take advantage of the fission in American politics with the
Democratic victory. While the Democrats have promised bipartisan support to
improving Indo-US strategic relations, of which the Indo-US nuke deal forms
the core, growing terrorism in J and K may and will lead to pauses in this
relationship-building, especially Democratic pauses. This is natural with
someone coming new to power. They wouldn't want to go with the administration
in making long-term foreign policy decisions that may, in their opinion, imbalance
regions. If J and K flares up, with Pakistani design, almost its first casualty
will be the nuke deal. The Democrats may well halt its approval until the
situation improves, which means US intervention, but which means, in the new
situation, the Democrats riding the Republican administration, and vice-versa.
It could be confusing and dangerous. In short, therefore, expect Afghanistan
to go under, factor for a terror upsurge in J and K, and don't be surprised
if the nuke deal is delayed and all manner of American interventionism in
J and K begins. India should be prepared for all this, and therefore be cautious
in the foreign secretary level talks. And don't bet too much on General Parvez
Musharraf. Yes, the man is a veritable Houdini. He has escaped from frightful
situations, survived two Al-Qaeda assassination attempts, and so on. But he
is in for something new. The Pakistan army is facing terrorist attacks in
tribal areas. A suicide bomber killed over forty soldiers in an army training
camp near where the military had blown up a suspected Al-Qaeda terror factory.
In counter, Musharraf has spoken against terrorism affecting Pakistan, but
the opposition parties have scorned his appeal to unite at this hour. Across
the board, they want him to go. While they have always wanted him to go, now,
he may not be able to bank longer on his key constituency, the military. The
military is anyhow unhappy with his memoir, it floated counter-coup rumours
against him when he was publicizing the memoir in the US, but the terrorist
hit has shocked and awed the army. While the army cannot publicly disagree
with the anti-terror alliance with America, it would see opportunity in the
weakening of the Bush administration. While Musharraf may or may not be able
to stay the course for himself, with president Bush weakening, Musharraf is
bound to weaken. He may become even less his own man and reduce to a tool
of the military. This is another fundamental change in relation we may have
to face up to in the foreign secretary level talks. What do we, therefore,
talk about? The new foreign secretary, Shiv Shanker Menon, should be able
to do it well. Which is talk everything about nothing. No concessions on Siachen.
Maybe token CBMs but nothing substantial. No commitments on J and K. No guarantee
that the peace process will continue if terrorism continues. And, yes, the
highest vigil in J and K, and keeping our eyes and ears open in Afghanistan,
and doing what's needed to be done elsewhere. There's a climate change in
America. We have to keep absolutely, scrupulously on guard. While being cautious,
we have to preempt Pakistan all the way. The exercise should have commenced
the moment the Republicans lost Congress. Rather, it should never have been
abandoned. But at any rate, it has to be revived now. We are not talking specifics.
It is an evolving situation. Our solutions have to cater to the change. What's
clear is, we have to stop the Taliban and the Pakistanis in Afghanistan, so
as to secure J and K. The gloves, as they say, have to be off.
