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Recent events in UP have established without the shadow of doubt that in this populous, volatile, and politically crucial state, the BJP has successfully replaced the Congress as the dominant party. Henceforth, political equations and alignments in the State will focus around the saffron party,, in much the same manner as they once revolved round the Congress. An interesting political alchemy is in process in the State, with possible consequences at the Centre, by the time of the next elections. What is
lready clear, however, is that the BJP has breached the seemingly impregnable ideological apartheid in which it had hitherto been caged. This is no mean victory. In a fundamental sense it is a far greater achievement than Mr Kalyan Singh's success in retaining his office.
The BJP is understandably pleased with the developments in UP, notwithstanding reservations within the party itself over the kind of elements that have joined hands with it. On the one hand, the Congress and self-proclaimed secular parties such as the BSP, SP and the JD, exhausted themselves in arrogant and premature rejoicing over the impending "fall" of the Kalyan Singh Government, and neglected their own flock. On the other hand, the anti-BJP forces found themselves in complete disarray over the unexpe
ted sequence of events which saw the opposition parties cut a sorry figure in the state Assembly in full view of the world media. while the UF Government and the Congress party were virtually routed by President KR Narayanan's decision to return the Cabinet's recommendation of central rule in the State for reconsideration.
The BJP's victory, however, needs to be assessed within a larger framework. Chief ,Minister Kalyan Singh deserves kudos for challenging and smiting his volatile and unstable coalition partner at a moment when it was politically too early for the BSP to cry foul. Not only did this bring the simmering unrest with Ms Mayawati's leadership within her own party to the fore, it created doubts among other parties about her reliability as an ally, as witnessed by the SP's speedy backtracking on the, possibility o
a pact with the BSP. In the long-run, Ms Mayawati's penchant for short-lived governments, in concert with varied consorts, will also create doubts in the minds of her Dalit constituents about her efficacy in protecting their interests.
On the other side of the coin, while the MLAs who broke away from the Congress and other parties were primarily motivated by personal gains, including the fear of early elections, it remains to be seen if they have the calibre to carve nut a slice or the votebank of their respective parent organisations, and present it to the BJP by the time of the next polls. If they can truly help the party transcend the apparently static caste-communal divisions which are inhibiting it from acquiring its own majority,
r Kalyan Singh's experiment will be more than a one-time wonder.
Media reports have made much of the criminal backgrounds of' some of the defecting legislators. The most popular, and puerile, argument is that the presence of such elements in the, "secular" parties was acceptable because they were not made, ministers (though one could well question the status of the Union Defence Minister himself). In fairness, it should be accepted that the BJP, though it does strive to set higher standards of conduct in public life, has to operate within the constraints of the existi
g political situation. Unrealistic yardsticks applied to one party, without changing the ground rules for all, vitiate the atmosphere. It was precisely such a warped political climate that allowed the Cabinet to recommend imposition of central rule when Mr Kalyan Singh had already proved his majority. Nevertheless, the UP situation has renewed interest in the Election Commission's move to all.
At a deeper level, the UP developments should be seen as part of a larger movement in which a new order is struggling for supremacy in the face of stiff resistance from the old. The hysterical, self-righteous "anti-BJP is politically morality" hypothesis will no longer suffice to rally the nation; but those leading the resistance have no other weapons in their armoury. The situation is extremely fluid, and while self-seekers are the more obnoxious part of any change, they are at the same time the harbinge
s of a transformation in socio-cultural-political perceptions at the grassroots level. The sheer dimensions of the change can be gauged from the fact that those who applauded a "copybook" President for the alleged complicity of one regime in the Babri demolition, had to beat a hasty retreat when another questioned the political morality and constitutionality of dismissing a majority Government headed by the same leader. And with that step, we entered the portals of a new political culture.
Having said that, we must concede that there is some legal merit in Ms Mayawati's claim that legislators who defied her party whip should legitimately be disqualified. Yet, and this is equally important, the actual voting on the floor of the House that day cannot he invalidated because certain MLAs violated their party discipline. Actually the time has come to give a serious second thought to the relevance of the Anti-Defection Act itself. Most experts and analysts are unanimous that the statute has fail
d to achieve its primary objective of preventing floor-crossing, but surprisingly, none has commented upon the extent to which the Act is an infringement on the dignity and freedom of the individual legislators.
To my mind, this issue acquires a special urgency today as we are at an historic cross-roads in which individual choices will determine our collective destiny. It is nobody's case that legislators should be able to violate their respective party whips with impunity. On the contrary, legislators hardly ever violate their party line, leave alone whip. In practice, the whip is a device by which a party impresses upon its legislators the importance it attaches to a particular issue in the House, such as a no
confidence motion, and makes their attendance mandatory. But, as the voting in the recent Presidential and Vice-presidential elections showed, legislators happily follow the party's dictates even in the absence of a whip.
In the present context, we need to consider whether the casting of votes by individual MLAs or MPs has any meaning at all if the whip is so sacrosanct, or whether we can dispense with this formality altogether by permitting party leaders to declare their positions, after which the Speaker can simply announce the result on the basis of each party's known strength in the House. This may sound ridiculous, but in its present incarnation the Anti-Defection Act is precisely so totalitarian, it leaves no scope f
r a conscience vote in an extraordinary situation.
The events in UP have already taken a toll on both the ruling UF as well as the Congress party. The regional parties are distinctly uncomfortable with the Congress party's consistent lack of respect for constitutionally elected governments, and the impunity with which it orders (or forces) their dismissal. Given the manner in which the so-called "national" parties within the Front succumbed to the Congress blackmail, it is reasonably certain that the parties comprising the Government will not enter the e
ectoral fray together, whenever elections are held. The regional parties at least will hedge their bets by going to the polls alone, and looking for the best options later. The Congress on the other hand, will try to entice Front constituents like the Samajwadi Party and Mr Laloo Prasad Yadav's RJD, for fear of being alone at the hustings. All of this means a massive subterranean shift is under way in Indian politics.
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