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WASHINGTON: A Bush White House should acknowledge India's progress towards becoming a major Asian power and engage it on a much larger canvas than South Asia, a bipartisan panel of influential foreign policy analysts has advised presumptive President-elect George W.Bush.
In a sweeping reassessment of India's place in U.S foreign policy and national security considerations, the panel said the Indian economy has been growing at about 7 per cent since 1991 and most international observers believe the growth can continue. This would make India the world's fourth largest economy (in purchasing-power-parity terms) by 2015.
''An economy of that size would increase India's ability to modernise its military forces, develop a credible nuclear deterrent, and deepen US - India linkages. In short, if current trends hold, India will emerge as a great power,'' the panel said in its report ''Taking Charge: A Bipartisan Report to the President Elect on Foreign Policy and National Security.''
Among the far-reaching recommendations the panel makes to Bush vis-à-vis India are:
Strenghten economic cooperation - including efforts to remove the remaining economic sanctions. Remove bureaucratic impediments to civilian high technology transfers
Enhance military to military cooperation in the form of joint exchanges, training, exercises, and eventually *joint operations* wherever possible
Encourage Indian integration into multilateral security and economic organisations in the Asia-Pacific region
Develop common approach with India on terrorism, stability in Asia, proliferation, peace operations etc
In sharp contrast to its upbeat outlook of India, the Blue Ribbon panel that worked under the aegis of the conservative think tank Rand Corporation painted a dismal picture of neighbouring Pakistan, saying that country was in "serious crisis" and is "pursuing policies counter to important U.S interests."
While it was the Clinton administration that began the process of delinking India and Pakistan by forswearing a zero-sum game, the Rand panel goes much further in advising Bush to formulate a new South Asia policy that proceeds from ''decoupling India and Pakistan in U.S calculations.''
''U.S relations with each state must be governed by an objective assessment of the intrinsic value of each country to American interests in this new era,'' the panel said in its transmittal letter to the President-elect that consisted of a summary of its recommendations.
Among its specific recommendations - which are bound to send shock waves in Islamabad considering the hopes it has placed in a Republican dispensation - the panel has called on the incoming administration to increase pressure on Pakistan to ''show restraint in Kashmir, and to focus on solving its own internal problems.''
The panel urged Bush to ''clearly communicate to Pakistan's civilian and military leadership your strong preference for restraint in Kashmir.''
The report said Pakistan continues to be beset by unhealthy political, economic, and strategic trends that have become both intractable and mutually reinforcing. The most disturbing of these trends has been the growth of Islamic extremism.
''Extremist groups thrive because of Pakistan's continuing state failures and because they are intentionally supported by Pakistani military and secret services in pursuit of the latter's goals in Kashmir and Afghanistan, ''the panel's report said in a damning indictment of Islamabad's policies.
The report is endorsed by some of the most prominent foreign policy thinkers in Washington on both sides of the ideological divide. Among them are former Defence Secretary Frank Carlucci, Rand Corporation's Lynn Davis, Carnegie Endowment's Jessica Mathews, former Lockheed Martin CEO Norman Augustine, and Harvard University's Ashton Carter. Some of them are tipped to be in a Bush Administration.
In a scathing critique on the state of the Pakistani nation and its policies, the panel said Islamabad appears committed to using its emerging nuclear capabilities for strategic cover as it challenges India through its support for insurgents in Kashmir.
Islamabad also sponsors Taliban in Afghanistan. Given the Taliban's ties with terrorists such as Osama bin Laden, the threat they pose to stability in Central Asia, and the possibility that Taliban-style Islamic extremism might spread even to Pakistan itself, ''Pakistani policies have the potential to pose a broader challenge to U.S interests,'' the panel said in its report.
The panel said the disruption of democratic governance resulting from the military coup in October 1999 is likely to continue well into the foreseeable future and the military is likely to be formally involved in governance even after Gen.Musharraf leaves office.
In contrast, it said India's democratic institutions remain both durable and robust. However, it cautioned that the ''traditionally liberal and secular character of the state is increasingly contested by a variety of new Hindu fundamentalist groups in Indian politics.''
However, it is the Talibanisation of Pakistan that the panel is most concerned about. It urged Bush to consider increased pressure -- ''including using the leverage of international financial assistance'' - to curb Islamabad's sponsorhip of extremist groups such as the Taliban and to gain Pakistan's cooperation in the fight against international terrorism.
In its scrutiny of what it called "assymetric warfare," the panel told Bush he will need to place high priority on continuing efforts to neutralise terrorists, using both established and new techniques. This includes technical responses, vigorous pursuit of terrorists, and - where possible - ''efforts to reduce or eliminate political motivations (or sources of political tolerance) for terrorism.''
While the panel report
glossed over the non-proliferation issue and virtually accepted India's
nuclear status, there was a dissenting note by Carnegie's Jessica Matthews
questioning the sidestepping. She wanted the panel to discuss how the US
could best reconcile the reality of India's place in the world with the
U.S global responsibility to curb nuclear proliferation.
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