HVK Archives: Three facts and Two assumptions
Three facts and Two assumptions - Asian Age
M J Akbar
()
4 August 1996
Title : Three facts and two assumptions
Author : M J Akbar
Publication : Asian Age
Date : August 4, 1996
Fact Number One: Saffron sunrise on horizon. If another
general election is held anytime in this century, the
Bharatiya Janata Party will come to power at the Centre,
possibly on its own and certainly in the company of a few
satellites happy with the regional clout they would get
in exchange. This is so obvious that it hardly bears
reiteration. In the next elections, the BJP would not
only retain what it won in the last, but add to its
numbers in Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar,
Karnataka and add a substantial chunk of the urban vote
all across India. The cities of India watched the few
days of Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee with great
care, and liked what they saw.
Fact Number Two: Man seated on rocking chair. Prime
Minister H.D. Deve Gowda is according to all reports a
good man, but both the fact and the appearance of
stability are beyond his reach. And as the fragility of
this government begins to become apparent under the
pressure of power, the chips are beginning to fall away
from an edifice which was not very healthy to begin with.
His primary problem is not with the BJP in Opposition, or
the Congress, waiting for his act to crumble, but with
his own United Front which looks as if it should be
renamed the Untied Front. It was no less a person than
Mr V.P. Singh who gave first indication of distance from
the government he helped create in an interview to Seema
Mustafa for The Asian Age. The rumble was followed by a
roar from Laloo, once again in an interview to Seema
Mustafa, who suggested that calling Congress and Mr P.V.
Narasimha Rao communal was nothing except a part of
electoral politics. After the roar came a serious bite:
Mr Singh's home minister in 1991, Mufti Mohammad Sayeed,
decided that he had had enough and resigned from the
Janata Dal.
Fact Number Three: Lazarus sa ' ys he is alive. The
Congress has no intention of dying as yet, however
suicidal it may seem from time to time. Indeed, the
party surprised everyone by taking itself seriously on
the eve of the Uttar Pradesh elections and patching
together an alliance with the Bahujan Samaj Party. For a
party under oxygen in the north since 1989 this was a
major coup, effected by the joint efforts of all the
senior leaders of the Congress. Those who see this as
only an electoral compromise miss the point. The
principal reason for the decline of the Congress in Uttar
Pradesh and Bihar has been that it has lost its basic
support among the Dalits and the Muslims. The alliance
with the BSP will renew the relationship between the
Dalits and the Congress, albeit through an indirect
route; and if the Muslim mood can be softened through the
drip-drip-drip policy of persistence then we have the
makings of a revival, at least in theory. The wooing of
the Shahi Imam and his son Ahmed Bukhari by the Congress
is totally consistent with this gameplan.
Option Number One: Huge rush to buy tickets for Titanic.
The United Front ministers begin to behave as if they are
destined not only to rule for five years but are certain
to be re-elected. They actually believe that the 150-odd
Congress MPs will be content to sip coffee in Central
Hall for five years, and that Mr Narasimha Rao will never
discover the nerve to pull that red carpet away from
under their feet. The home minister continues to act as
if he has no responsibility towards anyone except the
CPI, and if MPs get irritated and angry because of
decisions like withdrawal of personal security, well, bad
luck to them. The tensions between the Prime Minister
and his party chief, Laloo Prasad Yadav, keep mounting
until the latter is convinced that Mr Deve Gowda's main
ambition is to destroy any challenge to his authority
from Bihar. Mr Yadav even suspects that the CBI has been
instructed to get him through the investigations of the
startling misappropriation of government funds in Bihar.
The strong Muslim lobby in the Janata Dal is convinced
that C.M. Ibrahim has taken over, and instead of being
shunted into oblivion it is far better to continue with a
place of some relevance in a party like the BSP (Arif
Bhai is already there, isn't he?).
Come September/October and Mulayam Singh Yadav turns
certain that there is a conspiracy by his allies to deny
him the job he really wants: chief ministership of Uttar
Pradesh. This is why he has been defeated in the
Assembly elections in the state: not because he messed it
up, but because there were a dozen knives bleeding him
from the back. He starts some old-fashioned wrestling
with fellow Cabinet ministers even as the BJP, fresh from
a sweeping victory in Uttar Pradesh, goes on the
offensive against the government. The Congress, which
was fighting on its own, begins to fret and fume; things
are not made easier by some intemperate statements from
the Communists who return to their favourite corruption
and Narasimha Rao theme. Their compulsions are changing:
they have to guard against the possibility of being seen
as bedfellows of the Congress with an election
threatening to strike any moment. Some incident lights a
fire. When Rajiv Gandhi gave support to Chandra Shekhar,
it was two constables from Haryana loitering outside his
house who broke the alliance. The Congress is already
angry that Deve Gowda used the Intelligence Bureau to get
information on Narasimha Rao's meetings with Janata
leaders. Now it discovers that despite the assurances
given by the Prime Minister, the surveillance has
continued. Anger. Storm in Parliament. Deve Gowda
suddenly loses his famous patience and recommends to the
President of India that he should order another general
election.
Hullo, Prime Minister Vajpayee, sorry for keeping you
waiting.
Option Two: Incredible achievement! Good sense strikes
MPs! At some point after the end of the Budget session
of Parliament, the Steering Committee of the United Front
sits down and comes to the conclusion that senior leaders
like Biju Patnaik are correct in their assessment that
this show cannot go on like this, and that only a full
fledged alliance with the Congress can create a
government which will last five years. The CPI is asked
whether it has any objection to being in government along
with the Congress: if it says no, then it is requested to
give support from outside. Negotiations are opened with
the Congress for such an alliance, and specific
discussions are held about the sharing of portfolios so
that there is no rancour later. The specific names of
the ministers who will be given these portfolios remain
at the discretion of the Prime Minister. The real
problem of course is who shall be the Prime Minister.
There are three options: Mr Deve Gowda continues till the
completion of a year and then hands charge to a Congress
nominee for the rest of the term. The Congress demand
for leadership of the government since it is the largest
component of the expanded United Front is conceded. Thee
third option is that a mutually acceptable third person,
like Chandra Shekhar, is named for the job.
All three are untidy, but they are certainly better than
the fourth option: tossing a coin. Unless, of course,
everyone is agreeable on the fifth option: Prime Minister
Vajpayee.
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