HVK Archives: Vaghela pitches in
Vaghela pitches in - The Indian Express
Editorial
()
22 August 1996
Title : Vaghela pitches in; Mehta could survive : good government may not
Author : Editorial
Publication : The Indian Express
Date : August 22, 1996
Shankarsinh Vaghela has begun what promises to be a long
battle of attrition against the Bharatiya Janata Party.
It is the only form of warfare he is in a position to
wage at this stage. The BJP Government in Gujarat has
been seriously weakened as the unprecedented dismissal of
nine rebellious ministers proves. But its own battalions
are still large and it has the means to win over the
fence-sitting Khajurias with ministerships and other
public offices. Unless, and this seems, unlikely, there
is a serious falling out between Chief Minister Suresh
Mehta and Keshubhai Patel over methods of managing the
rebellion, the party should be able to hold on to power
for the foreseeable future. In the midst of a crisis
Mehta can be expected to go along with Patel as long as
his gaddi is assured. What the BJP has lost is the
agenda-setting initiative and its fortunes will depend on
when and how it recovers its voice.
Vaghela's mobilising tactics based on appeals to Gujarati
pride and the backward classes have for the time being
put Hindutva in the shade. On both those counts he
benefits from the dominant rhetoric in the country
following the ascent to power at the Centre of regional
and OBC parties. As he demonstrated at the launch of his
Rashtriya Janata Party, he is prepared to beat every
available drum from the Narmada project and royalties on
oil and gas to caste and poverty to rally support. His
ambiguity on Hindutva is calculated to keep the RJP's
door wide open to dyed-in-the-wool saffronites and
disgruntled BJP elements in other States and even,
perhaps, the minorities. He clearly has considerable
potential for nuisance but his claim that as many as 90
MLAs are ready to switch sides seems far-fetched since
such a degree of alienation has not been in evidence.
The figure is significant for what it reveals about
Vaghela's aims. He does not want to lead a rump of the
BJP but to split it down the middle. With 45 MLAs, the
number he took to Khajuraho, any government he tried to
form would be tarred form the start by its dependence on
a Congress party which contends for the same vote banks
as the RJP. A strategy which leads to the gradual
erosion of his parent party makes more political sense
for him as it did too for another notorious and highly
successful schemer in Gujarat, the late Chimanbhai Patel.
In order to avoid losing its organisational coherence as
well as party workers and more of its reputation, the BJP
will have to think of ways of altering the nature of the
battle. Raising the temperature with aggressive Hindutva
would be a natural inclination but unwise because of law
and order consequences and, with the adversary this time
not the Congress but one of the family, credibility will
suffer. Good governance would be a more rewarding
approach. The outcome of the UP polls will be a pointer
to whether cutting its losses and going for an early
election is an option for it in Gujarat. Meanwhile the
people have nothing to look forward to but a long spell
of instability.
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