HVK Archives: Bid to rock UF government may not succeed
Bid to rock UF government may not succeed - The Times of India
M D Nalapat
()
22 August 1996
Title : Bid to rock UF government may not succeed
Author : M D Nalapat
Publication : The Times of India
Date : August 22, 1996
While the BJP and the Congress may be political rivals,
their members and officials are united in one mission: to
brief elements in the media about the "instability" of
the Deve Gowda government. For t BJP, it is one more
step in its quest to occupy the space hitherto filled b
the Congress by underlining that only a BJP-led
government can be stable. For the Congress leadership,
insecurity is the weapon of choice to keep Mr Gowda in
line.
Thus, close on the heels of reports about telephone
tapping, reports have begun appearing about the
likelihood of the early demise of the Gowda government.
While some commentators speak of elections this year,
others say that the next parliamentary poll will take
place Its 1997, more than three years before it Is due.
Such predictions are reminiscent of the constant refrain
throughout 1991-93 that the Narasimha Rao government was
"about to fall".
What saved Mr Rao then, and what is keeping away the
possibility of the collapse of Mr Gowda's government now,
is fear among the MPs that they may lose in a fresh
election. The pounding given to sitting MPs in the just-
concluded Lok Sabha elections and the fall of
"impregnable" fortresses, such as the AIADMK's in Tamil
Nadu, have created respect for the Independence of the
voter in the legislative wings of political parties.
They would prefer not to undergo a quick repeat of the
poll ordeal.
Short of three outcomes - withdrawal of support by the
Congress, a -pull-out by the regional formations from the
government, or a major revolt within the Janata Dal - the
Deve Gowda government Is likely to continue. What are
the chances of each of these three outcomes?
Conventional wisdom has it that the bulk of the 140
Congress MPs would be eager to have their party join the
Deve Gowda government "in order to share in the fruits of
power". Such a conclusion may be flawed for two reasons.
First, should the Congress join the government, 20 of its
MPs, at most, would become ministers. These would almost
all be the "big" names, with the smaller fry left out.
These days, In contrast to the servility seen during the
Gandhi family era, Congress MPs are unwilling to accept
dictation from their "leaders". Thus, they see little
charm in joining the government just so that a handful of
"seniors" can once again get berths.
Second, the Gowda government has ensured that members of
"friendly" parties are not neglected. Today, a Congress
MP is treated with much more attention by a minister or
even the Prime Minister than he was in Mr Narasimha Rao's
time, While the Congress is technically outside the
government, its MPs are in effect made to feel a part of
it. Therefore, despite the occasional leaks to the
media, the mood of the Congress MPs does not favour
bringing down the government.
The second threat is a pull-out by the regional
formations. The pull-out by any single group - even
major ones such as the TDP or the DMK will not ipso facto
lead to the fall of the government. At the same time, Mr
Gowda would then be free to use the resources of the
investigating agencies at his command to expedite
inquiries against such apostates. None of the regional
groups now in the UF would like the idea of
investigations of the kind that have taken place into the
deeds of former prime minister P.V. Narasimha Rao.
Keeping in view the fact that the BJP needs nearly 100
more MPs to cobble together a stable coalition, as also
the fact that the left parties are unlikely to support a
Congress-led government, the prospects for an alternative
government appear slim. As long as these dynamics
persist, no regional party is likely to try and pull down
the government.
And what of the third possible threat: fissures within
the Janata Dal? What saves the party is its very
insignificance. Had there been 150 or even 100 MPs,
splits may have been more likely. With just 45 members
in the Lok Sabha, the chance of a split posing a threat
to the government is low. Also, as in the Congress, the
grip of the satraps in the JD is weakening. Few MPs
would stand by Mr Laloo Yadav should he attempt a revolt.
Even fewer within the Samajwadi Party would continue to
back Mr Mulayam Singh if he were to bolt from the ruling
UF. The operative word, of course, is "ruling".
There is another threat: a possible coalescing of public
opinion against the Deve Gowda government on the lines of
what took place with the V.P. Singh regime in 1990.
However, whether It is CTBT or Sukh Ram, Mr Deve Gowda is
taking decisions that win him public applause. in the
final analysis, this Is what will keep him In office.
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