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BJP likely to secure majority in UP polls - The Times of India

K Balakrishnan and G V L Narasimha Rao ()
29 September 1996

Title : BJP is likely to secure a majority in U.P. polls
Author : K Balakrishnan and G V L Narasimha Rao
Publication : The Times of India
Date : September 29, 1996

The coming elections to the Uttar Pradesh assembly might
the Bharatiya Janata Party BJP) increase its share of the
popular vote to an all-time high of 36.7 per cent, a gain
of over three points over its share in the 1993 assembly
elections.

This will also be higher by two r cent than its perfor-
mance in recent Lok Sabha elections the party had led in
242 assembly segments. However, because of the consoli-
dation of its alliances since then (the coming together
of the BSP and the Congress, and the Congress-Tiwari and
the BKKP joining the United Front), the BJP is expected
to finish with a tally of 205 to 215 seats. This is
close to the magic figure of 213 required for a majority
in the 425-seat state assembly.

The rival alliances, the BSP Congress and the United
Front, are running neck-and-neck, in terms of both votes
and seats, with the UF having an edge.

The Samajwadi Party led United Front is estimated to get
28.1 per cent of the popular vote and 100 to 110 seats.
The BSP-Congress alliance is projected to finish just
behind with 27.5 Per cent Vote and 95 to 100 seats.

These are the highlights of the pre-election opinion poll
conducted among 5197 voters spread over the six regions
of UP by the Centre for Media Studies (CMS) for The Times
of India Group.

Compared to the 1993 assembly election, the UF is esti-
mated to suffer a loss of 3 per cent in the popular vote.
This will mean a corresponding loss of 30 to 35 seats for
the alliance constituents compared to their tally of 140
seats in 1993 assembly.

The BSP-Congress alliance is projected to be a close
third. While the present constituents of the alliance
are estimated to improve their vote share by 1.5 per cent
compared to 1993, this is not expected to gain them extra
seats. Though the alliance has given a fresh lease of
life to the Congress, the party is projected to win 20-22
seats, well short of its 1993 performance.

According to the poll, Kalyan Singh is the favourite
choice among the contenders for chief ministership; he is
preferred by 37 per cent of the voters, while Mayawati
and Mulayam Singh Yadav have the support of 26 per cent
and 25 per cent of voters respectively. No other leader
figures in the race; even Ajit Singh is mentioned as the
preferred choice by hardly one per cent of voters in
Western UP.



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