HVK Archives: It's finally dawning on the US that the Cold War is over
It's finally dawning on the US that the Cold War is over - The Sunday Observer
Anil Athale
()
10-16 August 1997
Title: It's finally dawning on the US that the Cold War is over
Author: Anil Athale
Publication: The Sunday Observer
Date: August 10-16, 1997
Much has been written about the relationship between the world's "largest"
(India) and "greatest" (USA) democracies. But since the end of the Cold
War, most of the erstwhile communist countries of Europe have also become
democracies, and former analogies no longer hold. Moreover, it is naive to
attribute good relationships merely to forms of government. Else, when
monarchs ruled the world, international relations should have been
excellent, which they never were.
The United States, as the world's most influential economic and military
power, matters far more to India than India does to the US. Many of the
security problems and economic troubles India faces can be traced to
American policies.
Some American diplomats agree to what is obvious: that many US policies,
like the massive supply of arms to Afghanistan and the mollycoddling of
theocratic Pakistan, were the result of US global interests and not
specifically directed at India. Yet, the fact remains that those policies
were to result in the killing of more than 20,000 Indians in terrorist
violence in the Punjab and elsewhere. As K P S Gill, former head of the
Punjab police, recently said, the violence in Punjab escalated only after
American arms found their way there.
Since India lacks military or economic clout in the US, the Americans have
generally been insensitive to legitimate Indian concerns. But there is
another reason for the asymmetrical relationship between the two. India has
always had, even at the height of Indo-Soviet friendship, a strong pro-US
bureaucratic lobby, partly out of ideology and partly out of the generous
flow of dollars (or PL 480 surplus rupees). But the US administration has
had an entrenched anti-India faction that has been conditioned by Cold War
politics.
Now, almost six years into the post-Cold War era, the American bureaucratic
mindset seems to be changing and the dangers of backing illiberal states is
becoming apparent. Also, by a happy coincidence, the "Krishna Menon" of the
US, Robin Raphel, is leaving the office of assistant secretary of state
responsible for the Indian subcontinent. Like Menon for the Soviets, Ms
Raphel was even more zealous than the Pakistanis on Kashmir and related
issues. Her departure will surely lessen the abrasions between the two
countries.
But more than personalities, it is the shift of the world's power balance
to the Asia-Pacific region from the traditional Middle East that will prove
crucial.
In the American perception, Pakistan forms part of the Middle East while
the rest of South Asia falls in the Asia-Pacific region. The sections that
deal with these two regions were often at loggerheads, but right till the
end of the Gulf War, it was generally the Middle East interests that
prevailed.
All that has now changed as the Association of South East Asian Nations,
Japan, and China have come to occupy the centre stage. It appears that a
struggle is on within the US administration over its China policy: whether
to accommodate China or to contain it. The recent leaks in the Washington
papers, one about Indian deployment of the Prithvi missile and another
about the Chinese missile threat to India, were part of this struggle.
Both stories were untrue as India has not deployed Prithvi to its
battlefield locations (Qallundar is the peacetime location of the unit
holding these missiles) and the Chinese missile threat to India has been
common knowledge for several years. The timing of the leaks, not their
content, is significant. The "contain China" lobby may well wish to set
India up to cover the Chinese western flank.
Another significant straw in the wind is the scheduled Naga conclave in
Atlanta, Georgia. It appears that under American influence, the Church is
finally coming round to the view that the Nagas must make peace with India.
Most observers of the Indian North-East are aware of the US influence in
northern Burma, cultivated since World War II. It seems the US is as
worried as India about the possible Chinese inroads into Burma In its drive
to the Bay of Bengal and an outlet to the sea.
geography has dealt China a bad hand as far as access to the open seas is
concerned. It is to be expected that China, wishing to become a
superpower, will attempt to rectify this. The chaotic northern Burma
appears to present the best opportunity for this.
If northern Burma is to be saved from falling into Chinese hands, only
India can do it. And the co-operation of the Nagas and other tribals in
the North-East is essential for this. Therefore the unusually favourable
American interest in peace in the region.
While the exact contours of the US policy shift are not yet clear, one can
assume that irrespective of which school of thought - containment or
accommodation - wins, the US would like to keep its options open. If this
is to have any meaning, a strong and peaceful India is a necessity.
In the coming years, as Chinese power grows, the US will increasingly
become sensitive to Indian concerns. No amount of lobbying by Pakistan or a
few anti-Indian US Congressmen can change the facts of emerging
geopolitics. It will be some time before this shift becomes visible, but
indications of it are available.
In the 50th year of Indian independence, a new chapter may well begin in
Indo-US relations. As this will be based on long-term convergence of
interest and not fake sentiments, it is likely to be both durable and
fruitful. The first indication may well be in India being accommodated in
the revamped Security Council of the United Nations.
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