HVK Archives: Hindu vote-bank cemented in ravidian TN
Hindu vote-bank cemented in ravidian TN - The Observer
N Sathiya Moorthy
()
April 7, 1998
Title: Hindu vote-bank cemented in ravidian TN
Author: N Sathiya Moorthy
Publication: The Observer
Date: April 7, 1998
Is the 'Hindu vote-bank, getting consolidated in the Dravidian,
Tamil Nadu and becoming a bone of contention between the
Bharatiya Janata Party and its AIADMK ally?
"There is definitely a 'Hindu votebank' in the State now, though
it may differ from the Hindutva votebank' elsewhere," says an
informed source. "While the 'Hindutva votebank' is the
consolidation of the 'fundamentalist Hindu view' in the aftermath
of the Mandal-Mandir row, the Hindu votebank' in Tamil Nadu has
been a fallout of the 'Coimbatore blasts' of February 14, aided
in a way by the daily seizures of explosives from various corners
of the State in the past month."
These sources do not deny that the 'stability card' of the BJP
had a pull with various sections of the State electorate.
"There is no denying the 'BJP Pull,' or the 'Vajpayee charisma.
They are more political m nature, born out ofthe conviction that
BJP alone would be able to provide a stable Government at the
Centre. This conviction went along with the traditional votebanks
of the allies of the BJP, prompted by the anti-incumbency factor
against the DMK-TMC combine."
As this source points out, other than m constituencies like
Nagercoil, Tenkasi, Tiruchendur, Tiruchi, Coimbatore and
possibly South Madras, there was no 'Hindu votebank' worth the
name in the rest of the 39 Lok, Sabha constituencies in the
State.
The Coimbatore serial blasts seem to be changing that scenario.
Voters who voted on the 'bomb blasts' saw it mostly as the DMK
Government's failure on the law and order Front, flowing from the
party's unnentioned sympathy and need for the Muslim votebank. "
What has consolidated this 'anti-establishment' sentiments into a
'Pro-Hindu' feeling is the repeated seizure of explosives and the
numerous arrests of Muslim fundamentalists, which my have a
political and electoral effect. Overnight, every Muslim is looked
upon as a suspect, and every arrest and weapons recovery is seen
as one more loop in a conspiracy chain.
Interestingly, however, It is the AIADMK more than the BJP which
is making loud protests on the arrests and arms seizures.
Possibly given the Political waywardness exhibited by the AIADMK
on the eve of the swearing in of Vajpayee Government, the BJP
does not want to close all its political options, particularly
given the pro-BJP tilt visible in the six Lok Sabha members of
the DMK.
AIKDMK has been consistently demanding the of the DMK State
Government for its alleged failure on the law and order front,
and Jayalalitha has termed Chief Minister M Karunanidhi as 'anti-
national', as if to drive home the point, the BJP has been
ambiguous and equivocal at best. Though party president L K
Advani held the DMK Government responsible for the Coimbatore
blasts, his party has been shy in demanding the dismissal.
If anything, state BJP general secretary L Ganesan has been
appreciative of the DMK Government's new found resolve to end
Islamic fundamentalism in the State as shown by the seizures and
arrests. The BJP's lone legislator also stayed inside the State
Assembly when the AIADMK ally led a walkout on the opening day of
the budget session earlier this month on the 'Coimbatore blasts.'
The AIADMK - under both its founder, the late M G Ramachandran,
and now under Jayalalitha has been 'proreligion' in its political
philosophy and in the personal practices of its leaders.
Jayalalitha had taken a pro-Hindu stand on the 'Ayodhya issue'
when she was the Chief Minister, though her decision was mainly
borne out of political compulsions as she was fighting against
the Congress.
"The AIADMK started off with the traditionally religious
peripheral Congressmen who moved towards the party after the
death of Kamarai. The rank and file worshipped MGR, and for them
whatever he did or said was the right thing, religion and God
included. This being the case, the AIADMK has a stronger
religious base than either the DMK or the Congress, the latter
now m the form of the TMC.
In the company of the BJP, it could be a formidable force. But
otherwise, the BJP and the AIADMK may be fighting for the loyalty
of these 'neo-Hindu' votes.
"Should the BJP and the AIADMK part ways. as events of the past
month have hinted, it is the AIADMK with its finger on the pulse
of local issues, like law and order, that has an edge. The
traditional 'Hindutva voters' may still go with the BJP."
A lot in this regard may depend on the stability to the BJP
Government at the Centre, which is what motivated the Tamil voter
to go the BJP AIADMK way in the first place, their own
reservations about both the parties notwithstanding.
Against this scenario, even the ruling DMK seems to be doing
'something positive' to retain its votebank, which is in the
process of going the 'hindu way.'
"The ongoing arrests and arms seizures, while ensuring law and
order, also have the political advantage of the 'hindu voters,'
otherwise favouring the DMK for local reasons, returning to the
party's fold."
The DMK leadership is, however, apprehensive of the impact of
these police actions on its traditional Muslim votebank.
"The Muslims may start looking at us with suspicion, but we
cannot help it," says a party leader. "Maintenance of law and
order is paramount for the continuance of our Government, and we
are sure that the Muslim .community, at large, will appreciate
the fine distinction between hurting the community's sentiments,
and taking what's necessarily an unavoidable action against
select sections preaching terrorism.
If there is someone who may be sitting pretty on the 'Muslim
card' and losing the 'Hindu vote,' it is the TMC. Through Muslim
have been known to vote for the DMK m the past, but by
overlooking the State police crackdown on the Islamic
fundamentalists, the TMC may gain the Muslim's sympathy.
"But we cannot afford to over-play this factor as this would put
off sections of the traditional Hindu voters, who used to be
Congressmen through and through, but have s shifting their
loyalties to parties like the BJP and the AIADMK citing religious
sentiments as the reason." says a TMC ideologue. It will be a
tightrope walking."
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