HVK Archives: Indian missiles fuel nuclear arms race
Indian missiles fuel nuclear arms race - The Times Wednesday
Christopher Thomas
()
April 15, 1998
Title: Indian missiles fuel nuclear arms race
Author: Christopher Thomas
Publication: The Times Wednesday
Date: April 15, 1998
India has developed a longer-range version of the Prithvi, its
surface-to-air missile, capable of reaching Pakistan's main
cities and installations. it marks a further escalation of the
arms race between the old enemies, both capable of quickly
developing nuclear weapons.
The news coincided with talks in Delhi yesterday between Atal
Behari Vajpayee, the Prime Minister, and Bill Richardson, the
American Ambassador to the United Nations, who is paving the way
for a visit by President Clinton to Pakistan, India and
Bangladesh in the autumn. Mr Richardson raised American concerns
about nuclear and missile developments by two of the world's most
belligerent neighbours, but clearly India is in no mood to budge.
The new Government in Delhi is committed to remaining nuclear-
capable, the more so since Pakistan's successful testing last
week of an intermediate-range missile, the Ghauri. The test, in
effect, removed India's missile superiority over its neighbour.
The technology for the Ghauri almost certainly came from China,
another neighbour with whom India has fought a war. India's
growing sense of vulnerability guarantees that President Clinton
will be unlikely to persuade Delhi to restrain its missile or
nuclear programmes. Its intermediate range Agni missile, capable
of reaching deep into Pakistan and China, no longer represents a
sense of security because of rapid military developments across
its borders.
Pakistan is now theoretically capable of landing a missile almost
anywhere in India. It sent an aggressive message by naming its
missile the Ghauri after an Afghan raider who raped and pillaged
in India. The test of the Ghauri exposed the duplicity of China's
policy towards India, with which Beijing has been outwardly
friendly while secretly transferring the latest missile
technology to Pakistan.
Neither India nor Pakistan has deployed missiles: for either to
do so would start an even more intensive scramble for
superiority. With political instability on both sides of the
border, that would increase the danger of nuclear conflict.
India's current Prithvi, its only missile in production, has a
range of about 100 miles, but the latest version will be able to
travel twice as far - enough to strike Islamabad and Karachi. It
is mobile and fast, travelling at 2,250mph.
China has helped to develop Pakistan's military capability since
the 1980s as a counterweight to Indian strength in the region.
The successful test of the Ghauri ensured that Islamabad now at
least equals Delhi's missile capability.
The United States may seek to influence Indian nuclear policy by
offering civilian nuclear co-operation or greater foreign
investment in return for freezing or rolling back developments in
nuclear weapons technology. The new Indian Government is unlikely
to be interested in such a deal, especially as it came to power
promising to keep open the nuclear option, It has sought to
downplay that Promise, aware that any such move would bring swift
international repercussions.
A nuclear test would almost certainly lead to sanctions by the US
and retaliatory moves by the International Monetary Fund and the
World Bank. Aft election pledge to carry out such a test has thus
been quietly buried.
But all indications are that India will seek to push forward its
nuclear weapons capability while falling short of testing and
serial production. That will alarm, among others, the Central
Intelligence Agency, which described the Indo-Pakistan border as
the world's most likely nuclear battleground.
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