HVK Archives: Birthpangs of a stable government
Birthpangs of a stable government - The Observer
Dina Nath Mishra
()
April 23, 1998
Title: Birthpangs of a stable government
Author: Dina Nath Mishra
Publication: The Observer
Date: April 23, 1998
A question is being asked as to how long the Vajpayee government
would last. Arguments are being put forward that the BJP-led
government suffers from internal contradictions similar to those
of United Front governments. Predictions are being made that it
would fall sooner than the latter. The way Vajpayee government
has passed its first month provides superficial symptoms the
fragility of the government. There can be another way of looking
at it. Anti-BJP politicians and media persons started with the
presumption that BJP and its allies would hardly get 220 seats.
But when the figure touched 255 they jumped to another conclusion
that the combination would not get the additional number to form
the government. When after getting 12 additional members,
Vajpayee came within the striking distance of absolute majority
and formed the government, they created another wave of
uncertainty that he may not win the confidence vote. Now again
Surjeet and Bardhan and their media counterparts are making a
mountain out of every molehill. The prophecy that the BJP-led
government would crumble under its own weight of contradictions
too is going to meet a similar fate. Small mercy then that both
of them said on April 20 that they are in no hurry to bring down
the government. They would rather wait and watch than to do
anything rash. Congress spokesperson ruled out any plans to take
advantage of the crisis faced by the BJP government.
The political arithmetic of the 12th Lok Sabha and small
numerical edge of the ruling alliance suggest the vulnerability
of the Vajpayee government. But stability does not depend on
arithmetic alone. Political chemistry and the climate too play a
vital role in stabilising a durable formation. This time when
Chandrababu Naidu of TDP opted out of the UF and favoured a BJP-
led government, it was clear that the balance of contradictions
worked in favour of BJP unlike 1996. It was symptomatic of the
climatic change of politics in India.
In coalition politics, every group has to bear its own load of
contradictions and evolve a methodology to deal with the
unfolding challenges. In the case of BJP, hitherto unknown
challenges are numerous. Many feel directly threatened by the
very existence of BJP in the seat of power at the Centre. Many of
them suffer from deep-rooted suspicions regarding BJP and hence
the resistance. In this background, when BJP and its allies came
to power they found a hostile terrain facing it. A definite
residual hostility of parties like SP, CPM, CPI, RJD and Congress
makes them enjoy any discomfiture of BJP irrespective of the
national interest or general interest of the masses. Most of
these parties treat the BJP not as an opponent but as an enemy.
In the cross-fire, heat is bound to be generated. The country has
seen stagnant and corrupt stability. It has also seen political
stability at the Centre and instability in states. BJP wants a
dynamic stability which alone can usher in change. BJP could have
very well acceded to the demand of dismissal of Karunanidhi
government and made peace with Jayalalitha. But at what cost?
Stagnant stability may be good for enjoying power, but certainly
it is bad for the country.
That is why Jayalalitha's wines of blackmailing tantrums
gladdened the whole lot of anti-BJP forces. A whisper in Chennai
by Jyalalitha was splashed as thunder in the media.
A temporary bubble at the surface was made to be clear evidence
of looming instability. The fact of the situation is different.
Everybody knows that she is facing numerous corruption charges.
She thinks that if assembly elections of Tamil Nadu are held
within three months, she has good chances to win a majority,
which would provide her power enough to get rid of the mess in
which she is in.
When Muthaiyya was chargesheeted she took a moral stand and told
him to resign. And then she made a whole controversy around it
and asked for the resignation of other chargesheeted ministers
namely Buta Singh, Ramkrishna Hegde and Ram Jethmalani. Dr
Subramaniam Swamy heightened the controversy by asking Vajpayee
to drop L K Advani, M M Joshi, and Uma Bharati for they too were
chargesheeted in connection with the Babri demolition. Meanwhile,
Supreme Court came out with a judgment on JMM bribery case in
which Buta Singh too was found guilty and cleared for
prosecution. The pressure for his resignation mounted. Contrary
to expectations, he adopted a belligerent stance and equated
himself with ministers like Advani and Joshi whose cases are
polls apart. He had to be dropped.
Right from the beginning Dr Subramaniam Swamy conspired against
the BJP. But for Jayalalitha he could not have managed to win
Madurai seat. His presence in the list of BJP and its allies was
the chief source of discomfiture In the BJP camp. First, he
conspired to hijack the AIADMK alliance of Tamil Nadu minus BJP
to Congress camp. Having failed in this game he wanted to be a
finance minister: having failed in it Dr Swamy conspired to
defeat Vajpayee's confidence vote in Lok Sabha. Dr Swamy had
Planned to manage a few members from the alliance parties to
abstain from voting but in vain. Dr Swamy did not vote for
Vajpayee's confidence motion. The controversy after Muthaiyya's
resignation was also the result of Dr Swamy's conspiracy.
Jayalalitha lent her helping hand, for it suited her game-plan
vis-a-vis Vajpayee government.
The air of uncertainty about the stability of Vajpayee government
emanating from Chennai may appear to be coming directly from
Jayalalitha. But, it is has been originating from Dr Swamy. It is
understood that BJP and other allies have decided to throw out Dr
Swamy along with his one-man Janata party. It is likely to be
executed in days.
In fact, it appears that BJP is prepared for the worst, i e a
minority government if it comes to that, rather than bowing to
the unreasonable dictates of any of its alliance partners. After
all, even in our country there have been minority governments
headed by Indira Gandhi and Narasimha Rao. A number of countries
have seen minority govermnents. In a given political situation,
there is no alternative to Vajpayee, for many Congress MPs and
even those of the Left would not agree to Sonia becoming Prime
Minister. Soma and Sharad Pawar both would prefer Vajpayee
rather than the other. Nobody would like to go to elections
within such a short span. First, why should Jayalalitha withdraw
her minister or support? She too does not have an alternative.
Given President's disposition towards using Article 356, no
leader can assure Jayalalitha the dismissal of Karunanidhi
government. In all fairness, it must be said that at no point of
time did she threaten not to support Vajpayee government.
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