HVK Archives: The 1998 election marks a watershed
The 1998 election marks a watershed - The Pioneer
Surya Prakash
()
April 13, 1998
Title: The 1998 election marks a watershed
Author: Surya Prakash
Publication: The Pioneer
Date: April 13, 1998
While calling for a "very candid" in-house assessment of the
state of the party, the political resolution adopted by the
Congress at its AICC session in Delhi this month said "this is a
time for self-introspection and admission of the stark realities
that stare us in the face". Whatever the party may or may not do
pursuant to this AICC directive, it is obvious that those who
drafted this document had understood the import of the peoples'
verdict.
The "stark realities" that stare the party in the face are as
follows: One, until 1998 the Congress could claim that whether or
not it came to power in an election, it had the biggest share of
the popular vote and no other political party was anywhere near
it. This is no longer the case. The Congress' vote share is down
to 25.72 per cent and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) which has
25.38 per cent is now breathing down its neck. Two, for the
first time after Independence, the Congress has lost its perch as
the party with the widest electoral support and as the only pan-
Indian party. The BJP has now snatched this trophy from the
Congress. After the recent election, the BJP has representatives
in the Lok Sabha from more states and union territories than the
Congress. Three, since 1989, the vote share of the Congress in
parliamentary elections has fallen by 14 per cent whereas that of
the BJP has risen by 14 per cent.
Electoral statistics indicate that the Congress has a lot to
worry about. As the accompanying graph shows, the party, which
bagged 45 per cent of the national vote in the first Lok Sabha
poll held in 1952 has managed to secure just 25.72 per cent of
the vote in the election to the Twelfth Lok Sabha. The extent of
the downslide can be gauged from the fact that since 1952, the
Congress party's vote share has dropped by a staggering 20 per
cent.
The trajectory of the BJP curve on the other hand has been almost
unidirectional. Beginning with a humble 3.10 per cent of the
vote in 1952 when it was known as the Jan Sangh, the party made
slow progress during the Nehru and Indira Gandhi eras. But the
party's fortunes took an obvious upturn when it crossed the two
digit mark for the first time in 1989. In the Lok Sabha poll held
that year, the BJP secured 11.50 per cent of the national vote.
Then came the spectacular jump to 20.10 per cent in 1991. In 1996
the party appeared to have hit a plateau winning just 20.29 per
cent of the vote but it has improved its vote share by a huge 5
per cent since then, touching 25.38 in the recent election. This
means that since 1952, the Jan Sangh-Bharatiya Janata Party's
vote share has improved by 22 per cent. In other words, its gains
almost correspond to the Congress party's losses.
But the story of the declining fortunes of the Congress party is
not confined to voting percentages alone. It extends to another
area as well, namely the party's reach. Despite its falling
percentages, the Congress always claimed, and rightly so, that it
was the only authentic national party, which secured votes and
parliamentary seats across the length and breadth of India. After
the recent Lok Sabha poll there is clear evidence that the
country now has two nation. al parties-the Congress and the
BJP.
In 1996, the Congress has won seats in 26 of the 32 states and
union territories despite its vote share dropping to 28.80
percent. No other political party could boast of such a wide
political base. The BJP, which bagged seats in 12 states and
union territories, lagged far behind and was a poor second to the
Congress. All other parties, many of them described as .national"
parties by the Election Commission, were not in the race at all.
The Congress could therefore scoff at other parties and claim
that it was the only party which had a truly national base. The
story is however different in 1998. This time the Congress has
won seats in 17 states and 3 union territories whereas the BJP
has picked up seats in 17 states and 4 union territories, which
means the latter has MPs from more states and union territories
than the Congress. Between 1996 and 1998, the Congress'
representation in the Lok Sabha has shrunk from 26 states and
union territories to 20 whereas that of the BJP has risen from 12
of these units to 21.
Yet another indicator which shows that it is now a neck and neck
race between these two parties is the number of constituencies
where each of these parties registered a victory or was the
runner-up in the recent election. The Congress contested 462
seats, won 141 seats, and stood second in 157 constituencies. The
BJP contested 384 seats, won 180 seats and stood second in 125
others.
The 1998 Lok Sabha election has meant bad news to several other
national parties as well. Between 1996 and 1998, the vote share
of the Janata Dal has crashed from 8.80 to 3.20 per cent and even
the two Communist parties have been punished by the voters along
with other constituents of the United Front. The CPIs vote share
has dropped from 1.97 to 1.74 per cent while the CPI(M) has seen
a fall in popular support from 6.12 to 5.21 per cent. The two
Communist parties have together dropped just over one per cent of
the vote over the last two years. The disastrous performance of
the UF in this election could be interpreted as the voters'
rejection of the Third Front. The only national party which has
withstood the onslaught of the BJP in these elections is the BSP.
Its share of the vote has risen over the last two years from 3.64
to 4.66 per cent even though it's seats in Parliament is down
>from 11 to 5.
But coming back to the Congress and the BJP, what the future
holds for each of them will depend on how they read these
electoral trends. The Congress cannot hope to recover ground
unless it consciously sheds its cultivated opposition to regional
parties and coalition politics. There is enough evidence since
1989 to show that it can no longer hope to win a mandate on its
own, even if its leader is a member of the Nehru-Gandhi family.
Voters, in many states have shown a preference for regional
Congress parties which espouse local causes or other regional
parties. The Congress will therefore have to go out of the way
to assure smaller parties that it is willing to share power with
them and is reconciled to the realities of the coalition era.
The BJP, on the other hand, will have to guard against misreading
the 1998 verdict as an improved mandate for its core philosophy.
A good part of the fresh electoral support that it secured in the
recent elections can be traced to its strategic alliance with the
AIADMK in Tamil Nadu, the BJD in Orissa, the Lok Shakti in
Karnataka and the Samata Party in Bihar. Its decision to project
a moderate like Mr Vajpayee as its prime ministerial candidate
also helped it to win over new supporters. These alliances can be
retained only if the party operates within the ambit of the
National Agenda drawn up by all the coalition partners. Any
restlessness within the BJP on this score could drive away
sensitive alliance partners and throw the party back to the
electoral plateau that it hit in the first half of the 1990s.
The 1998 poll has dramatically brought these two parties on par.
Where they go from here will depend on the lessons they draw from
cold electoral statistics. If either of them fails to grasp the
meaning of this verdict, there will be no photo finish next time
round.
Cong and BJP
Performance since 1952
1998 lok Sabha election
--------------------------------------------
Party Cong BJP
--------------------------------------------
Contested 462 384
Won 141 180
1st runner-up 157 125
2nd runner-up 87 74
---------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------
Year Cong BJP
--------------------------------------------
1952 45.00 03.10
1957 47.80 05.90
1962 44.70 06.40
1967 40.80 09.40
1971 43.70 07.40
1977 34.50 -----
1980 42.70 -----
1984 48.10 07.40
1989 39.50 11.50
1991 36.50 20.10
1996 28.80 20.29
1998 25.72 25.38
---------------------------------------------
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