HVK Archives: Sinking in political quagmires
Sinking in political quagmires - The Observer
Virendra Parekh
()
September 12, 1998
Title: Sinking in political quagmires
Author: Virendra Parekh
Publication: The Observer
Date: September 12, 1998
So, the Congress is willing to shoulder its constitutional
obligation to form an alternative government, if and when the
present one falls on its own. It has kept the door open for
coalition with like minded parties in the intervening period, but
cherishes the hope of coming to power on its own in the not-too-
distant future. 19 the Congress on the comeback trail? Is it
really time for the BJP to pack up?
Congressmen expect that when fresh elections are held (which are
very far away, by their reckoning), they would be able to capture
power on their own. A left-of-the-centre economic policy, Sonia
Gandhi's leadership and an ardent wooing of their traditional
support groups like Muslims, Harijans, Brahmins etc would
catapult them to power. In short, they expect Sonia Gandhi to be
another Indira Gandhi in the making.
It seems, however, that Congressmen are skating on thin ice. They
are betting on the wrong horse in all the three crucial aspects
of political strategy - economic policy, choice of leader and
social groups targeted for political support.
It is risky for a political analyst to take Congressmen seriously
when they talk about policy or ideology. Congress can be leftist,
rightist, centrist or anything else. Such flexibility would be a
positive trait if it were inspired by a genuine desire to
strengthen the economy. That is not the case with Congress. Its
thinking can be epitomised in just one short word: opportunism.
And yet, we, cannot ignore its rediscovery of commitment to
socialism and socialistic pattern of society, going back all the
way to the Avadi session held in 1955. The return to socialist
rhetoric has been tempered with the need to defend the
liberalisation ushered in under Congress rule. But the overall
drift of the resolution was unmistakably populist.
This will do the party no good. If the poor masses had really
been hit by economic reforms, they would have voted heavily for
leftist parties. But the main gainer in the last elections was
the BJP which is by no means a socialist party. The projection
of Sonia Gandhi as the supreme leader and, by implication, the
prime ministerial candidate, was driven by its internal
historical necessity.
Since the days of Mahatma Gandhi, Congress has had a
characteristic style of leadership - leadership from above, which
has been a dominant feature of the party ever since those days.
Gandhiji descended upon Congress from above, having made his name
and perfected his political techniques in South Africa.
Jawaharlal Nehru became Congress president with the blessings of
Bapu - both his own father and Gandhiji. Indira Gandhi did have
to fight a fierce battle for supremacy in the party, but only
after the prize post of Prime Minister was offered to her on a
platter by the party bosses.
Rajiv Gandhi succeeded her as Prime Minister without the
slightest opposition. And Sonia Gandhi was begged to take up the
mantle of leadership by Congressmen, despite her foreign origin,
religion and well publicised distaste for politics.
Congressmen are convinced that they cannot do without a supreme
leader. Although each Congress leader has ambitions of his own,
none of them is comfortable with the idea of shared or collective
leadership. For such a bunch, it is only natural to plump for
Sonia despite her manifest limitations.
However, one can by no means rule out the possibility that they
may have done so more to thwart one another, than for any other
purpose. For all we know, Congress leaders may not be as united
behind Sonia as they appear to be - They are trained to maintain
discreet silence and strike at an opportune moment.
However, while Sonia may be essential for the Congress, the
country can do without her services.
Sonia's foreign background, Christian religion, poor
understanding of India and its problems and political baggage
like Bofors will make her a liability for the party. There is
nothing whatsoever in her background or her personality to
attract the people and make them vote for her.
However, Congressmen hope that Sonia's leadership will lure back
to the party Muslims and Harijans who have been its traditional
vote banks, but who have now been co-opted by other parties which
are offering them more than the Congress ever could.
This brings us to the third aspect - the social support base of
Congress. From the days of Nehru to 1989, Muslims (about 12 per
cent), Harijans (roughly 15 per cent) and tribals (seven per
cent) remained a major source of support for Congress, with the
exception of the Muslims in 1977. These groups accounted for
about half of the total votes polled by the Congress.
The other half came from the higher caste Hindus, including
Brahmins, from the northern parts of India.
A major weakness of this social base is that there is no
commonality of interests between its constituents, for example,
between the Muslims and the Harijans. Thus, any attempt to expand
the support base alienates its existing partners.
There are three major obstacles to the party rebuilding its
traditional support base: Muslims and Harijans have shifted
allegiance to parties like BSP and Samajwadi Party, where they
are much more important than in the Congress, which, by
definition, cannot be a party of sectionist interests. It
certainly cannot hope to equal the Mulayams and the Laloo Yadavs
in handing out high positions as spoils of the victory to its
allies.
Secondly, caste Hindus, having been aroused politically, cannot
be taken for granted any longer. Leaders who constantly harp on
minorities and dalits leave them cold. This holds true for the
OBCs as well.
And this brings us to the third obstacle. The middle level
peasant castes have done remarkably well economically and now
want a larger share of power, but are unable to throw up leaders
who would stay together for any length of time, especially in
victory.
The Congress still does not know what to do about them. And while
it has stayed away - understandably - from the Mulayam Singh
Yadavs and Laloo Yadavs, it has little chance of winning them
over on its own account. If this view of the Congress ideology,
leadership style and social base is valid, then it can be safely
asserted that the BJP and not the Congress is the party of the
future.
It is true that the BJP has not covered itself with glory in its
brief stint in power. Even then, its mere presence in office has
yielded some lasting benefits. It has ended its political
untouchability. Having received support from such pillars of
secularism as Mamata Banerjee, Jayalalitha, Farooq Abdullah and
the tacit approval of Chandrababu Naidu and Karunanidhi, the BJP
can no longer be tarnished as a narrow-minded chauvinist party
whose assumption of power will result in instant break-up of the
country. The bogey of anti-Muslim policies (if not pogroms) has
been belied. This will deprive the BJP's enemies of a major
propaganda weapon against it.
The immediate challenge before BJP and its allies is to transform
a system which mainly benefits those who run it. Those who have
the authority as well as the responsibility to change the system
have a vested interest in the status quo. That is why the reforms
have been tardy, slow and minimal, driven solely by external
compulsions rather than inner convictions. Swadeshi has replaced
socialism as a slogan, but the net effect is not very different.
If the BJP can apply itself diligently to this tricky problem, it
need not bother about Sonia and her brigade.
Title: Sinking in political quagmires
Author: Virendra Parekh
Publication: The Observer
Date: September 12, 1998
So, the Congress is willing to shoulder its constitutional
obligation to form an alternative government, if and when the
present one falls on its own. It has kept the door open for
coalition with like minded parties in the intervening period, but
cherishes the hope of coming to power on its own in the not-too-
distant future. 19 the Congress on the comeback trail? Is it
really time for the BJP to pack up?
Congressmen expect that when fresh elections are held (which are
very far away, by their reckoning), they would be able to capture
power on their own. A left-of-the-centre economic policy, Sonia
Gandhi's leadership and an ardent wooing of their traditional
support groups like Muslims, Harijans, Brahmins etc would
catapult them to power. In short, they expect Sonia Gandhi to be
another Indira Gandhi in the making.
It seems, however, that Congressmen are skating on thin ice. They
are betting on the wrong horse in all the three crucial aspects
of political strategy - economic policy, choice of leader and
social groups targeted for political support.
It is risky for a political analyst to take Congressmen seriously
when they talk about policy or ideology. Congress can be leftist,
rightist, centrist or anything else. Such flexibility would be a
positive trait if it were inspired by a genuine desire to
strengthen the economy. That is not the case with Congress. Its
thinking can be epitomised in just one short word: opportunism.
And yet, we, cannot ignore its rediscovery of commitment to
socialism and socialistic pattern of society, going back all the
way to the Avadi session held in 1955. The return to socialist
rhetoric has been tempered with the need to defend the
liberalisation ushered in under Congress rule. But the overall
drift of the resolution was unmistakably populist.
This will do the party no good. If the poor masses had really
been hit by economic reforms, they would have voted heavily for
leftist parties. But the main gainer in the last elections was
the BJP which is by no means a socialist party. The projection
of Sonia Gandhi as the supreme leader and, by implication, the
prime ministerial candidate, was driven by its internal
historical necessity.
Since the days of Mahatma Gandhi, Congress has had a
characteristic style of leadership - leadership from above, which
has been a dominant feature of the party ever since those days.
Gandhiji descended upon Congress from above, having made his name
and perfected his political techniques in South Africa.
Jawaharlal Nehru became Congress president with the blessings of
Bapu - both his own father and Gandhiji. Indira Gandhi did have
to fight a fierce battle for supremacy in the party, but only
after the prize post of Prime Minister was offered to her on a
platter by the party bosses.
Rajiv Gandhi succeeded her as Prime Minister without the
slightest opposition. And Sonia Gandhi was begged to take up the
mantle of leadership by Congressmen, despite her foreign origin,
religion and well publicised distaste for politics.
Congressmen are convinced that they cannot do without a supreme
leader. Although each Congress leader has ambitions of his own,
none of them is comfortable with the idea of shared or collective
leadership. For such a bunch, it is only natural to plump for
Sonia despite her manifest limitations.
However, one can by no means rule out the possibility that they
may have done so more to thwart one another, than for any other
purpose. For all we know, Congress leaders may not be as united
behind Sonia as they appear to be - They are trained to maintain
discreet silence and strike at an opportune moment.
However, while Sonia may be essential for the Congress, the
country can do without her services.
Sonia's foreign background, Christian religion, poor
understanding of India and its problems and political baggage
like Bofors will make her a liability for the party. There is
nothing whatsoever in her background or her personality to
attract the people and make them vote for her.
However, Congressmen hope that Sonia's leadership will lure back
to the party Muslims and Harijans who have been its traditional
vote banks, but who have now been co-opted by other parties which
are offering them more than the Congress ever could.
This brings us to the third aspect - the social support base of
Congress. From the days of Nehru to 1989, Muslims (about 12 per
cent), Harijans (roughly 15 per cent) and tribals (seven per
cent) remained a major source of support for Congress, with the
exception of the Muslims in 1977. These groups accounted for
about half of the total votes polled by the Congress.
The other half came from the higher caste Hindus, including
Brahmins, from the northern parts of India.
A major weakness of this social base is that there is no
commonality of interests between its constituents, for example,
between the Muslims and the Harijans. Thus, any attempt to expand
the support base alienates its existing partners.
There are three major obstacles to the party rebuilding its
traditional support base: Muslims and Harijans have shifted
allegiance to parties like BSP and Samajwadi Party, where they
are much more important than in the Congress, which, by
definition, cannot be a party of sectionist interests. It
certainly cannot hope to equal the Mulayams and the Laloo Yadavs
in handing out high positions as spoils of the victory to its
allies.
Secondly, caste Hindus, having been aroused politically, cannot
be taken for granted any longer. Leaders who constantly harp on
minorities and dalits leave them cold. This holds true for the
OBCs as well.
And this brings us to the third obstacle. The middle level
peasant castes have done remarkably well economically and now
want a larger share of power, but are unable to throw up leaders
who would stay together for any length of time, especially in
victory.
The Congress still does not know what to do about them. And while
it has stayed away - understandably - from the Mulayam Singh
Yadavs and Laloo Yadavs, it has little chance of winning them
over on its own account. If this view of the Congress ideology,
leadership style and social base is valid, then it can be safely
asserted that the BJP and not the Congress is the party of the
future.
It is true that the BJP has not covered itself with glory in its
brief stint in power. Even then, its mere presence in office has
yielded some lasting benefits. It has ended its political
untouchability. Having received support from such pillars of
secularism as Mamata Banerjee, Jayalalitha, Farooq Abdullah and
the tacit approval of Chandrababu Naidu and Karunanidhi, the BJP
can no longer be tarnished as a narrow-minded chauvinist party
whose assumption of power will result in instant break-up of the
country. The bogey of anti-Muslim policies (if not pogroms) has
been belied. This will deprive the BJP's enemies of a major
propaganda weapon against it.
The immediate challenge before BJP and its allies is to transform
a system which mainly benefits those who run it. Those who have
the authority as well as the responsibility to change the system
have a vested interest in the status quo. That is why the reforms
have been tardy, slow and minimal, driven solely by external
compulsions rather than inner convictions. Swadeshi has replaced
socialism as a slogan, but the net effect is not very different.
If the BJP can apply itself diligently to this tricky problem, it
need not bother about Sonia and her brigade.
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