HVK Archives: Saffron spreads South
Saffron spreads South - Rediff on the Net
TVR Shenoy
()
September 23, 1998
Title: Saffron spreads South
Author: TVR Shenoy
Publication: Rediff on the Net
Date: September 23, 1998
South Indians consider Vijayadashmi the most auspicious day to
start children on the road to education. But the custom of
vidyarambham isn't confined to the young. Adults too rededicate
themselves to their work on Vijayadashami after the festival
gives a welcome reason to lay aside the tools of their trade. I
enthusiastically recommend the ceremony to all my colleagues in
the media business.
I think all of us have been obsessed with the headline news,
things like juicy quotes from the likes of Jayalalitha or Laloo
Prasad Yadav. But upon reflection, the single most far-reaching
political development of recent times is nothing to do with
Sonia Gandhi, or Jayalalitha, or the pygmies in the Rashtriya
Loktantrik Morcha. It is the gradual way in which the political
map of South India is being redrawn.
India south of the Vindhyas was once considered an impregnable
Congress fortress. Even the rise of regional parties didn't dent
this fiction; it was felt the Congress was the only national
party that could sway voters in South India. And it was agreed
that if any national party could challenge the Congress it would
not be the BJP, that "Hindi" party. But times have changed.
The BJP-Lok Shakti alliance won 16 of Karnataka's 28 Lok Sabha
seats earlier this year. This was no aberration judging by two
rallies, in Madras and in Hyderabad.
Tamil Nadu witnessed three major functions in honour of
Annadurai this year. Jayalalitha's AIADMK chose Tiruchirappalli,
Karunanidhi's DMK held sway in Tirunelveli, and the MDMK hosted
a joint celebration in Madras. The BJP, represented by no less
than the prime minister himself, was present at the Madras
convention. It turned out to be the best attended of the three.
Two days later, on September 17, Hyderabad celebrated its
liberation from the Nizam's misrule. The chief guest at one
function was L K Advani. A rival gathering boasted the presence
of two former prime ministers -- "Telugu bidda" Narasimha Rao
and Inder Kumar Gujral. But their joint attraction could
scarcely fill a single hall, while the Union home minister drew
a giant audience.
Up to a few months ago, it would have been unthinkable to bill
Atal Bihari Vajpayee, an acknowledged Hindi poet, as the star
speaker at a function commemorating Annadurai, that champion of
Dravidian consciousness! So what has changed?
For one thing, the Congress has lost its primacy. There isn't a
single South Indian state ruled by the Congress. The Left Front
governs Kerala, the DMK is in possession of Tamil Nadu, the
Telugu Desam has an unshakeable majority in the Andhra Pradesh
legislature, and the Janata Dal still clings on to Karnataka.
True, the BJP also doesn't have ministers in Madras,
Thiruvananthapuram, Hyderabad, and Bangalore. But three of the
four chief ministers have repeatedly praised the Vajpayee
government. (Kerala's E K Nayanar is the exception.) They have
expressed the hope that the ministry in Delhi serves a full five-
year term. But they have no kind words for the Congress.
Even Jayalaltiha is trying to mend bridges with the BJP. At one
public meeting she accused the home minister of eating his words
on dismissing the Karunanidhi ministry. That was widely
reported. What was not reported was that an AIADMK emissary met
L K Advani the very next day to deny that she had said anything
of the sort.
If the BJP doesn't lack allies, what of the Congress? Its only
potential partner is Kerala's Left Front. But what good does
that do? Joining hands ultimately means vacating the Opposition
space to the BJP. One Congress leader told me in confidence,
"The CPI-M tasted power when the United Front ruled Delhi and
liked the experience. Now it wants to repeat the experience with
our help. But I have no plans to commit suicide."
As the Congress wrestles with that dilemma, the BJP is gathering
strength all over South India. For the first time in the
political history of this country, there are two national
parties vying for the allegiance of voters in the South, not
just the Congress battling several small regional forces.
Patna may have the headlines today. Jayalalitha's tantrums might
send reporters scurrying down to Madras again tomorrow. But the
real story is the grassroots revolution being wrought by the BJP
in South India, something that could change the very face of
politics decisively in the years to come.
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