archive: Kargil to war
Kargil to war
Editorial
The Statesman
May 28, 1999
Title: Kargil to war
Author: Editorial
Publication: The Statesman
Date: May 28, 1999
Reflexive Western worries, and the downing of the two Indian jets by
Pakistan notwithstanding, there's real hope that Kargil win not end in
a war. That the two Prime Ministers are - still talking-is one
reason. That a war will cripple both economies, and especially
Pakistan's, is another. A third is that what has happened in Kargil
over the last fortnight is very much a part of the Kashmir conflict
that the two sides have been engaged in for years. True, both the
extent of militant infiltration in Indian territory and, therefore,
India's response has been greater than 'usual' but that is not enough
reason for war. Pakistani-backed militants can continue their
demented jihad and Indian security forces can carry out their often
hamhanded response without the generals on either side having to lead
their troops into battle. The fourth reason is the Bomb. Officially
nuclear-armed now, India and Pakistan know that a full-scale battle
will bring the wrath of the global community upon them. Neither can
afford diplomatic isolation, and neither can hope that major powers,
including China, will take sides. Two poor countries fighting while
the world condemns them unequivocally is a spectre that should haunt
gung ho types on both sides.
However, having said this, one must warn that war is not impossible.
Two factors can provoke it. One, the Indian retaliation in Kargil,
like Nato's bombing of Kosovo, hits the wrong targets, which in this
case means across the line of control, giving Pakistan the 'right' to
retaliate. This becomes more important in the fight of the downing of
the jets. Second and related, if Islamabad, humiliated that the
militants have drawn a strong response from New Delhi, escalates its
response along the LoC, which may well have the momentum to turn into
a war. Every sane person in both countries will hope neither of this
happens. But every Indian must tell their government, and New Delhi
must acknowledge it, that the onus lies more with the bigger
neighbour.
Some may consider this unfair in that the provocation for what is
happening Kargil has clearly come from Pakistan, which seems to think
that every domestic problem can be solved by "freeing" Kashmir.
India, after all, is trying to clear its own territory of elements who
have clearly not come in peace. Peaceniks may condemn air strikes as
a means but no one can argue New Delhi's response should have been
inaction. But despite this, as the more responsible party to the
conflict, India, should take the lead in calming tempers and urge
moderation. Militarily it must not continue the air strikes beyond
what is assessed as the necessary minimum and take the maximum care
that bombs don't pummel PoK. Diplomatically, Vajpayee must keep on
talking to Nawaz Sharif, send a special envoy if necessary - Jaswant
Singh is the best choice. And politically, he must keep jingoistic
elements in his party and Parivar at bay.
Mr Vajpayee has to face another question: why was there such a major
intelligence failure over the infiltration in Kargil? Had that not
happened, militants could probably have been tackled without air
strikes. And the Prime Minister, among others, would have had an
easier time.
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