Author: UPI
Publication: Steve Sailer
Date: November 18, 2000
Los Angeles, Calif.
Nov. 18 (UPI) - Because Latinos and East Asians --America's largest
new immigrant groups -- voted solidly for Al Gore, Republicans had been
searching for a spot of good news about the voting trends of America's
fast growing immigrant population. They finally found it in a new
poll indicating that Muslim Americans voted heavily for George W.
Bush.
With East Asians moving
sharply toward the Democrats, GOP strategists have increasingly pursued
the votes of West Asian and South Asian immigrant communities. These
include Muslim Americans, Arab Americans, and Indian Americans. Putting
together a Republican coalition of all these groups may prove daunting,
though, due to the ancient ethnic rivalries still roiling that part of
the world.
Although the survey of
1,774 Muslim voters by the Council on American-Islamic Relations was not
particularly scientific, its results were still worth noting. Bush
took the votes of 72 percent of the respondents. Green Party candidate
Ralph Nader -- who is of Christian Arab descent --finished second with
19 percent. Gore came in last with a mere 8 percent.
Data provided by the
Arab American Institute show a similar picture for Arabs, who overlap somewhat
with American Muslims. In the most heavily Arab districts of Dearborn,
Mich., the Arab capital of America, Bush defeated Gore by about 2-to-1.
Nader did well there, too.
Muslim American organizations
claim to represent 6 million faithful, more or less. This would be
about the same as the Jewish American population. Muslims probably
haven't actually overtaken the Jews yet, but they no doubt will fairly
soon. Muslim American numbers are growing quickly due to immigration,
large families, and conversions. In contrast, the American Jewish
Committee says the Jewish American population will slowly decline due to
low birth rates and intermarriage with gentiles.
According to CAIR spokesman
Ibrahim Hooper, Muslim Americans are divided into three roughly equal populations.
There are Muslims from South Asian countries such as Pakistan, India, and
Bangladesh. There are Muslims from the Arabic-speaking world.
And there are African American converts.
While Louis Farrakhan's
separatist Nation of Islam grabs most of the publicity given to African
American Muslims, Wallace Muhammad's orthodox Islamic Sunni movement quietly
attracts more black converts with its message of acceptance for all races.
By the way, it's unlikely that African American Muslims were adequately
represented in CAIR's survey. Black converts are not likely to be
attracted to Republicanism. Still, they might be more independent-minded
than black Christians, who voted roughly 10-to-1 for Gore.
Arab Americans number
somewhere around 3 million. The majority are Christians. Many
have roots in the U.S. going back several generations. Muslim
Arabs, though, are the fastest growing segment of the population due to
immigration. Although it's important not to assume that Muslims and
Arabs are one group, their leaders currently tend to focus on similar issues.
Both want a weakening of two counter-terrorism policies that impact mostly
Arabs and Muslims. They also want America to be less pro- Israel.
These communities are
attracted to the GOP for a number of reasons. First, they tend to
be middle class. America generally draws from that region either
well-educated professionals or members of business-savvy families.
In contrast, Europe draws the Islamic peasant masses to do the kind of
poorly paid drudgework that Mexican immigrants increasingly perform here.
Also, the GOP benefits
from Arabs' and Muslims' perception of the Democrats as dominated by pro-Israel
Jews. For instance, Hooper of CAIR derides what he believes is the
Gore-Lieberman ticket's "slavish devotion to Israel." According to a Voter
News Service exit poll, Gore picked up about 80 percent of the Jewish vote.
Interestingly, many Arabs
and Muslims find Joe Lieberman's advocacy of Israel unobjectionable.
To them, it is natural that a man should work for his ethnic group and
religion. Their ire is largely reserved for Al Gore for picking a
Jewish American as his running mate.
The Republicans also
profit from Ralph Nader's popularity. The Green Party provides Arab
and Muslim leftist activists with an attractive alternative to the Democratic
Party. For instance, the leading Palestinian American intellectual,
Edward Said, strongly advocated Nader and the Greens. Of course,
"green" may not be a particularly evocative term to people with roots in
the tan-colored lands of West Asia. Still, the Greens offer one uniquely
attractive aspect to Muslim and Arab leftists. The Greens are a party
of the left that contains surprisingly few Jews. Although Jews had
dominated the American left since World War I, they gave only 1 percent
of their vote to Nader in 2000.
Although Nader didn't
focus much on foreign policy, he advocated a less pro-Israeli stance.
He also called for an end to economic sanctions on Iraq.
Finally, the GOP benefits
because West Asian and South Asian immigrants tend to be able to assimilate
into the white American mainstream less self-consciously than more racially
distinctive immigrants groups like the East Asians. These West and
South Asian populations belong to the overall Caucasian race. Indeed,
many Americans cannot readily distinguish West Asians from, say, European
Greeks. The South Asians do tend to look less European. Yet,
even the very dark computer programmers from South India tend to have recognizably
Caucasian features.
On the other hand, this
ability to assimilate can undermine their capacity to deliver ethnic bloc
votes. For instance, Arab Americans in Michigan divide themselves
politically along class lines, just like other white Americans. While
the Arab business-owners and professionals of Dearborn voted for Bush,
the Arab unionized autoworkers of Flint appear to have gone for Gore.
Divided and still small
(since many recent immigrants are not yet citizens), the Arab vote in Michigan
could not deliver the state to Bush. Nor could it re-elect the only
Arab American U.S. Senator, Republican Spencer Abraham.
Nevertheless, the number
of voters descended from this part of world will grow steadily over at
least the next several decades. This means that the parties will
need to carefully ponder their strategies.
Arab and Muslim Americans
are familiar with candidates treating them badly. In 1984, Democrat
Walter Mondale returned campaign contributions from Arab Americans.
And only this fall, Republican Rick Lazio staked his campaign for the New
York Senate seat on Hillary Clinton having once accepted a plaque from
a Muslim American organization. (He lost.)
Thus, Bush was able to
successfully woo Muslim and Arab leaders in 2000 by merely treating them
with respect. All Bush had to do was meet with their representatives
and, during the second presidential debate, endorse their plan to weaken
counter-terrorism laws. Eventually, however, Muslims and Arabs will
want in return for their votes more tangible benefits, such as influence
over American foreign policy.
This could cause serious
problems for the Republicans. That's because doing a favor for any
group with roots in West or South Asia is almost guaranteed to offend some
other group from there. For example, while Muslim Americans will
soon outnumber Jewish Americans, it may be generations before they rival
Jews in wealth and influence.
A pro-Muslim stance could
also alienate Hindu Indian immigrants. Muslim Pakistan and Hindu-dominated
India clash recurrently over the disputed territory of Kashmir.
With Indians making up
almost half of the highly intelligent technology workers admitted under
the H1-B visa program, Indians are outstripping all other new immigrant
groups in piling up wealth. And since Indian immigrants tend to be
articulate in English and familiar with democratic politics and the English
common law, they are likely to ultimately become quite influential in American
politics. According to demographic analyst Arthur Hu, Indian Americans
have been liberal in the past. For example, they voted for Michael
Dukakis in 1988. If Hindu Indians do indeed develop into the "new
Jews," it would be dire for the GOP to have such a talented community aligned
against them.
Similarly, pro-Muslim
positions would annoy Armenian American voters. This small but affluent
and persuasive immigrant group generally leans Republican. They've
recruited almost 100 U.S. Congressmen into the Armenian Caucus.
These representatives help the West Asian nation of Armenia in its struggles
with its Muslim neighbors: NATO member Turkey and oil-rich Azerbaijan.
This is not to say that
the GOP should not pursue Muslim and Arab votes. It just needs to
pick its opportunities carefully. There's been far too much history
in those ancient lands for any American party to appeal to all the peoples
all the time.
