Author:
Publication: The Economic
Times
Date: December 20, 2000
The Central Intelligence
Agency (CIA), in a crystal-gazing exercise, has predicted that India will
be the unrivaled power in South Asia in the next 15 years but the 'decisive
shift' in conventional military power in New Delhi's favor will make the
region more volatile and unstable.
"India will be the unrivaled
power with a large military - including naval and nuclear capabilities,
and a dynamic and a growing economy," the CIA's National Intelligence Council
(NIC) said in its global threat assessment report, released on Monday.
But the report said the threat of a major conflict between India and Pakistan
will overshadow all other regional issues, particularly since both New
Delhi and Islamabad "are both prone to miscalculation".
It warned, "continued
turmoil in Afghanistan and Pakistan will spill over into Kashmir and other
areas of the sub-continent, prompting Indian leaders to take a more aggressive
pre-emptive and retaliatory action."
It said, "India's conventional
military advantage over Pakistan will widen as a result of New Delhi's
superior position," and added: "India will also continue to build up its
navy to dominate the Indian Ocean transit routes used for delivery of Persian
Gulf oil to Asia."
The 68-page report titled,
"Global trends 2015:A dialogue about the future with non-governmental experts,"
also hypothesized that "the decisive shift in conventional military power
in India's favour over the coming years potentially will make the region
more volatile and unstable." According to the document, "Both India and
Pakistan will see weapons of mass destruction as a strategic imperative
and will continue to amass nuclear warheads and build a variety of missile
delivery systems." The report said, "wary of China, India will look increasingly
to the West, but its need for oil and desire to balance Arab ties to Pakistan
will lead to strengthened ties to Persian Gulf states as well."
Also it said: "Whatever
its degree of power, India's rising ambition will further strain its relations
with China, as well as complicate its ties with Russia, Japan, and the
West - and continue its nuclear standoff with Pakistan." One of the most
provocative sections in the report was its inclusion of what it described
as eight significant discontinuities' that the document said was unlikely
but possible. One of them was China, India and Russia forming "a
de facto geo-strategic alliance in an attempt to counterbalance US and
Western influence." The report developed in the past 15 months at a series
of conferences held by universities, corporations and think tanks, said
Indian democracy in 015 "will remain strong, albeit more factionalized
by the secular Hindu nationalist debate, growing differentials among regions
and the increase in competitive party politics.'
The report said that
"high-technology companies will be the most dynamic agents and will lead
the thriving service sector in four key urban centers - Mumbai, New Delhi,
Bangalore, and Chennai. Computer software services and customized
applications will continue to expand as India strengthens economic ties
to key international markets." It said that industries such as pharmaceuticals
and agro-processing will also compete globally and noted that numerous
factors provide India a competitive advantage in the global economy.
"It has the largest English-speaking population in the developing world;
its education system produces millions of scientific and technical personnel;
India has a growing business-minded middle class eager to strengthen ties
to the outside world, and the large Indian expatriate population provides
strong links to key markets around the world."
But the report said that
"despite rapid economic growth, more than half a billion Indians will remain
in dire poverty," and added "harnessing technology to improve agriculture
will be India's main challenge in alleviating poverty in '15". -
IANS
