Author: Shishir Gupta
Publication: India Today
Date: June 25, 2001
The relationship between India and
China have a tendency to toggle between good, bad and ugly. While economic
issues have overshadowed many problems, the nuclear threat and missile
proliferation have led to serious concerns in the past. And, lest one forgets,
it was the border dispute that sparked off hostilities between the two
Asian giants. Now a new flash point has emerged in the bilateral relationship.
The Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) has concrete evidence that
the flash floods which ravaged large tracts in the border states of Himachal
Pradesh and Arunachal Pradesh last year were caused by the Chinese.
A detailed study carried out by
ISRO scientists says the release of excess water accumulated in man-made
and natural water bodies in the Sutlej and the Siang river basins in Tibet
had led to the flooding. The Sutlej is part of the Indus river system and
enters India from Tibet in the Kinnaur district of Himachal Pradesh. The
Siang is part of the mighty Brahmaputra system and enters India in the
Upper Siang district of Arunachal Pradesh.
At 1.30 a.m. on August 1, 2000 a
50-ft high wall of water tore into the mountain gorges of Kinnaur, Shimla
and Mandi districts in Himachal Pradesh washing away everything that came
in its path. More than 100 persons lost their lives, 120 km of the strategic
Old Hindustan-Tibet highway was washed away and 98 bridges of various sizes
and shapes were completely destroyed. Official estimate of the loss: Rs
200 crore.
This was a replay of the flash floods
in Arunachal Pradesh about two months earlier on June 11. Only this time
the river that ravaged the Indian countryside was the Siang, which is known
as the Tsangpo in China and the Brahmaputra in Assam. That day, the Siang
rose by an unprecedented 100-120 ft in the border state and devastated
four districts of Arunachal Pradesh. More than 26 persons lost their lives
while three strategic bridges were swept away by the raging river waters.
Official estimate of the loss: Rs 139.50 crore.
The flash floods in the two states
were initially dismissed by the Centre as freak natural phenomena caused
by cloudbursts. In fact, they would have become nondescript files in the
National Disaster Management Cell of the Ministry of Agriculture but for
ISRO's stunning revelation that the flash floods had been caused by the
release of excess water that had collected in water bodies in the Sutlej
and the Siang river basins in Tibet. However, China has denied this and
says that there were no floods or incessant rain in Tibet at the time.
The Chinese have attributed the floods to "natural" causes on the Indian
side. But according to the Kinnaur district authorities, some bridges in
China were also destroyed by the gushing Sutlej waters.
This perhaps is not backed by facts.
When the disasters struck, it was also not raining in either Himachal Pradesh
or Arunachal Pradesh. This is precisely why there were no flood warnings
issued by the two state governments at the time.
On the other hand, ISRO's charges
are based on a careful examination of satellite images of the river basins
in Tibet. ISRO scientists pored over multi-date satellite data to investigate
the causes of the flash floods. Around 30 satellite pictures of the Siang
river basin in eastern Tibet region and 25 images of the western part of
Tibet were analysed. The ISRO findings were later submitted to the Ministry
of External Affairs. Also, during a review of the flood forecasting projects
under the Jai Vigyan National Mission last month, an ISRO representative
apprised Union Science and Technology Minister Murli Manohar Joshi of the
findings.
While the satellite images remain
classified, officials of the Ministry of Water Resources indicate that
these pictures show the presence of huge water bodies or lakes upstream
in Sutlej and Siang river basins before the flash floods took place. However,
these lakes disappeared soon after the disaster struck Indian territory.
This probably means that the Chinese had breached these water bodies as
a result of which lakhs of cusecs of water were released into the Sutlej
and Siang river basins.
The authorities are reluctant to
give out information about the "floods" in view of the "sensitive" nature
of India-China relations. But it is apparent that the floods in Arunachal
had occurred due to a breach of a lake on the Tsangpo river. ISRO has even
pin-pointed this lake at latitude 30.15 degrees North and longitude 94.50
degrees East in Tibet.
Former Arunachal Pradesh chief minister
Gegong Apang says a lake was formed after the Yigoing river-a tributary
of the Tsangpo-got blocked by massive landslides in Tibet's Bomi region
in April 2000. He alleges that the Chinese authorities took the help of
the army to breach the artificial lake, resulting in floods downstream.
Apang said the road link to Upper Siang district is still cut off from
India and the Kargo and Nubo bridges, two of the biggest steel bridges
in the state, were completely washed away and have to be rebuilt.
In Himachal Pradesh, 14 major strategic
bridges on the national highway were swept away and air force helicopters
were deployed for rescue and relief work. Kinnaur, district, famous for
its apples and alpine landscape, remained cut off from the rest of the
country for several weeks. The worst hit was the Nathpa-Jhakri hydroelectric
project which was coming up on the Sutlej river in Rampur district. Water
entered the turbine section of the multi-crore 1,500 MW project, setting
it back by almost three years. Considering that India plans to set up hydel
projects on the Brahmaputra also, it is important that such calamities
do not recur.
Keeping in view the massive damage
caused by the floods and with satellite evidence in hand, Delhi has now
taken up the matter with Beijing. While China remains firm that it did
not cause the flash floods, it has agreed to discuss an Indian proposal
to set up a flood forecasting system for the Brahmaputra river system.
But it has still not responded to a similar proposal for the Sutlej river.
A team headed by Commissioner (Eastern
Region) M.L. Goel in the Ministry of Water Resources is currently in Beijing
to seek China's cooperation in preventing recurrence of such disasters.
Goel's team will meet the director-general for international cooperation
in the Chinese foreign office and discuss the possibility of exchanging
river data for flood forecasting. A senior official of the Ministry of
Water Resources says the visit would be the first step in setting up a
joint monitoring group for better river management.
This is not the first time that
the two countries will be working together on flood forecasting and river
management. In the happier Hindi-Chini-Bhai-Bhai days of the 1950s, India
and China used to exchange flood forecasts for the Brahmaputra. But this
exercise was discontinued after the 1962 border conflict. It is in India's
interest to revive the practice.
