Author:
Publication: The Times of India
Date: June 13, 2001
In the light of the forthcoming
visit of Pakistan's chief executive General Pervez Musharraf to India,
The Times of India spoke to defence analyst K. Subrahmanyam Excerpts:
Q. What are your expectations from
Gen. Musharraf's forthcoming visit to Delhi?
A. At this stage, it is not possible
to have any significant expectations. This is only the first meeting between
Prime Minister Vajpayee and the General who carried out the Kargil aggression.
A lot will depend upon the personal chemistry between the two. In that
respect Gen. Musharraf carries a lot of undesirable baggage.
Q. Don't you think that through
his public ad. monition of the obscurantist clergy last week, Gen. Musharraf
has made an attempt to shed some of that baggage?
A. That is true. Yet it is still
to be seen whether that was just a gesture to please the Americans or genuine
enlightenment. The jehadi groups have already come out strongly against
him. There will no doubt be several opportunities during his visit for
him to demonstrate that he meant what he said on June 5.
Q. Why did he make that speech on
the Prophet's birthday? Was he not taking a risk given the nature of Pakistan
jehadi outfits?
A. Pakistan is under great pressure.
The U.S. State Department's annual report on terrorism has not minced words
about Islamabad's involvement in terrorism. Those involved in Osama bin
Laden's bombing of U.S. embassies in Nairobi have been convicted. Russia,
the central Asian republics and Iran have expressed concern about Pakistani
extremism and terrorism. The Taliban evokes strong reactions. Even Chinese
Prime Minister Zhu Rongji, during his visit to Pakistan, may have informed
Gen. Musharraf about Beijing's worries about the jehadis. In that sense
Pakistan stands totally isolated. They need the economic drip from the
International Monetary Fund and other international financial institutions.
If Pakistan does not mend its ways, its economy will sink further.
Q. Some of the jehadi organisations
have come out openly against Gen. Musharraf.
A. That was inevitable. All religious
extremist organisations are like venomous cobras. Those who pamper them
are taking the risk of their turning against them. Zulfikar Ali Bhutto
humoured them by declaring Ahmediyyas non-Muslim and promulgating prohibition.
That did not prevent their turning against him and overthrowing him. Benazir
and Nawaz Sharif too tried to placate them and paid high prices for their
follies. Gen. Musharraf and his military colleagues face a dilemma that
their military predecessors did not face. They will have to put down the
irrational religious extremists or they will be overwhelmed.
Q. What about the Islamisation and
mullahisation of the Pakistani army?
A. If it were to happen that will
be the end of the Pakistani army. I am sure the generals know it. A mullah-dominated
Pakistani army will not be a disciplined professional force it has so far
been. Mullahs can exert influence on the army only at the cost of its discipline.
Q. Coming back to Gen. Musharraf's
visit to Delhi, do you anticipate that this will be only the beginning
of a process?
A. Yes. Fifty-three years of history
cannot be undone in one or two summits. Gen. Musharraf, having perpetrated
Kargil, has to rebuild the shattered trust and confidence before anything
else can even begin to be discussed meaningfully. Nawaz Sharif met two
Indian prime ministers (Gujral and Vajpayee) seven times and won their
confidence and trust and then stabbed India in the back in Kargil. Gen.
Musharraf has to make up not only for his own role in Kargil but for the
betrayal of his predecessor of the trust and confidence reposed in him
by people like Mr Gujral and Mr Vajpayee.
Now Gen. Musharraf will have an
opportunity to tell his story to Mr Vajpayee. Many knowledgeable Pakistanis
say that Nawaz Sharif was the originator of the Kargil adventurism and
the general only implemented his orders. I am sure that if the general
comes out clean in private with Mr Vajpayee that will contribute significantly
to confidence-building.
Q. What about the General meeting
the Hurriyat leaders?
A. We should leave it to his good
sense. He knows that by doing so he would encourage various dissident leaders
of Pakistan to seek support from Indian political leaders. There is no
dearth of dissidents in Pakistan. That will be another test to check whether
the General knows what is good for him or he is a rash person who does
not think through the consequences of his action.
Q. How should India handle him?
A. With patience. The General is
riding the tiger of religious extremism and terrorism. He is isolated internationally.
As demonstrated by his speech on June 5, he knows it. We cannot expect
him to rein in terrorism and extremism overnight. Even if he were willing,
he would need time. The real core issue on which he should have a heart
to heart chat with Mr Vajpayee is what help he needs to enable him to control
his terrorists and religious extremists and how India could help to mobilise
support from the Islamic neighbours of Pakistan. That is the core issue
for him and not Kashmir-the survival of Pakistan. He can continue his public
postures and rhetoric. One should not mind that. That would demonstrate
whether he is a patriotic Pakistani or a short-sighted adventurer out of
touch with international reality or one of those interested in making a
fortune and then live abroad like some other Pakistanis or a thoughtless
military dictator like three of his predecessors who came to an ignominious
end.
Q. What do you think of the thesis
that Mr Vajpayee preempted a U.S. move to mediate in Kashmir with this
invitation to Gen. Musharraf?
A. I do not think much of that
thesis. Look at the mess the Americans are in in the Arab-Israeli conflict.
The Americans know that Pakistani jehadis are far more irrational than
the Hamas or Islamic Jihad. Mr Vajpayee has timed his move to coincide
with maximum international pressure on Pakistani generals. We do not know
what advice he has received from Washington, Beijing and Moscow or the
pressures they are exerting on Pakistan. The Taliban, a creation of Pakistan,
has made the U.S. Congressmen wear badges: 'I am a Hindu'. A new assistant
secretary of state, who has dealt with the ISI and the religious extremists
has just taken over. Deputy secretary of state Armitage made his views
on Pakistan, quite clear during his stopover in Delhi. The Iranian elections
have once again brought President Khatami to power. The events in the Balkans
make it clear that territorial secessionism will not receive western support.
