Author: Hamid Gul
Publication: The Newspaper Today
Date: July 12, 2001
General Musharraf has already offered
a hand of friendship by accepting Prime Minister Vajpayee's invitation
but the crucial question is: what will come of this? Several such summits
have been held in the past but nothing substantial has ever come out of
them because India is the usurper. Pakistan has never held back when it
comes to the issue of Kashmir but India is uncomfortable about discussing
it.
A solemn commitment was made to
the Kashmiris by the Indian leadership. They were to be given a choice
to decide their future and it is the denial of this right that is at the
heart of the problem between the two countries. If Vajpayee does not seriously
discuss Kashmir, Musharraf's visit might well turn out to be a waste of
time. Just like the Lahore bus journey.
India has only two alternatives.
To either negotiate Kashmir or risk a nuclear war. I know that the Indian
armed forces are getting very restive and want to see Pakistan defeated
on the battleground but that comes with nuclear risks. We saw what happened
during Kargil. The threat of escalation led to intervention by President
Clinton. Vajpayee's invitation to Musharraf obviously has its origins in
America. The Indian prime minister is working under pressure and the lure
of incentives. There are no free lunches in Washington. India offered talks
under American pressure and expects sanctions to be lifted in return. It
also has an eye on a seat in the United Nations Security Council.
It would do well for both India
and Pakistan to remember that any dialogue that takes place under pressure
cannot work. There has to be an intrinsic logic that suits the two parties
concerned. What progress are you going to make by reclaiming Azad Kashmir?
That is not going to bring peace to Kashmir. And why this persistent question
of whether Musharraf can rein in the jehadis or not? Why should he? What
wrong are they doing in Kashmir by waging a freedom struggle? They are
only agitating for a right which is stubbornly being denied to them. How
can India talk of itself as a great democratic nation when it opposes a
vote? And why at a time when the Indian security forces are feeling the
heat?
In Agra, the two sides will at best
agree to demilitarise Siachen but that will put pressure on Musharraf.
How can he return to Pakistan with that? For, in Siachen it is the Indian
soldier who is feeling the pinch again. To my mind, the two will at best
agree to keep the dialogue going. I expect no great breakthrough because
I don't think India has had a change of heart vis-a-vis Kashmir. Unless
that happens it will be difficult to see Vajpayee in the mould of, say,
Nixon.
(The author is a former chief of
the Inter-Services Intelligence.)
