Author: K Subrahmanyam
Publication: The Times of India
Date: September 22, 2001
PRESIDENT George Bush, in his address
to the joint session of the Congress, has made it clear that the proposed
war against terrorism will not follow the patterns of previous wars.
He has made specific reference to
the use of special forces and covert operations. Most commentators who
are making predictions about the war are extrapolating from previous experiences
-- the Vietnam war, the Afghan war and the Gulf war.
There is the usual repetition of
cliches that the US cannot accept body bags coming home and has no will
to fight a prolonged and sustained war. It is not realised that this is
the first time since 1813 that the US faces an attack by foreign forces
on its home targets in continental US.
This attack was on its economic
system and political values. The unity of the US, as never before in history,
was demonstrated in the two parties getting together behind the president.
This was not the situation during
the Vietnam war or the Gulf war. Now, justified or not, there is a real
sense of threat to US values, society and homeland which it is determined
to defeat.
The US is putting together a global
coalition against terrorism. Europe, Latin America, Russia, the Islamic
nations, India, Indonesia, Japan and Australia have all supported the coalition's
aim.
While China has not joined, all
indications are that Beijing will not stand in the way. Never before in
history has the US been able to put together such a coalition. This again
is a major difference.
It will take about six weeks for
the US and its allies to put their forces in position in the bases around
the Persian Gulf. The force will be largely air- and sea-based with a small
component of marines and special forces.
There will be no land battles and,
therefore, no stream of body bags. In all probability, the forces of the
Northern Alliance of Burhanuddin Rabbani, who is the ruler recognised by
the UN, will start their offensive operations as the US airforce destroys
the artillery and armour of the Taliban.
The Pakistanis, who were the backbone
of the Taliban army, have been withdrawn. With the US air effort destroying
the Taliban's equipment, the Northern Army will not have much difficulty
in moving down and taking over various Afghan cities like Kabul, Herat
and Jalalabad.
Unlike in the eighties, when the
Mujahideen derived all their logistic and manpower support from Pakistan
backed by the US, this time the Pak-Afghan border will be closed with no
oil or food getting through.
Most of the governors in Afghanistan
are as purchasable as they were when the Pakistan-Taliban forces advanced
in 1994-97. Therefore, in the land campaign in Afghanistan, no significant
US forces will be involved.
They may use heliborne special forces
for specific operations but not large numbers of regular forces as happened
in Vietnam or by the Soviet Union in Afghanistan in the 80's.
When a sizeable portion of Afghanistan
is freed from the Taliban, president Burhanuddin Rabbani can invite US
forces to operate from Afghan soil. That would again be using armed helicopters,
US aircraft and special forces.
All this would take a few weeks
after the beginning of the operation which will most probably be in the
latter half of October. Food supplies too will become a useful tool to
turn the populace against the Taliban.
In the course of this war, the training
camps of the Taliban and Osama bin Laden will be destroyed. By the end
of the year, an anti-Taliban government will be in Afghanistan exercising
control over most of the country.
Meanwhile, if general Musharraf
succeeds in blockading Afghanistan and assisting the US in destroying the
Taliban, he will get his reward in terms of significant economic aid. But
general Musharraf has to survive the internal opposition of the jehadis
and keep the army together under his control.
The destruction of the Taliban and
its replacement by a non-Taliban government will be a strategic defeat
for Pakistan brought about by its own submissive support to the US.
At that stage, the US will have
to devote attention to Pakistan itself. Afghan extremism will not be destroyed
unless the Pakistani jehadi network is eliminated.
By this time, general Musharraf
and the Pakistan army would have to make up their minds about containing
the jehadis. In that effort, they will have the full support of the US
and the international community.
Without shutting down the madarsas,
eliminating the jehadis and cracking down on the narcotics traffic, the
US war on terrorism would not succeed.
The US, having given the carrot
of economic aid to Pakistan, is likely to tell general Musharraf to either
cleanse Pakistan of terrorism and extremism or face the full weight of
economic sanctions, including an oil blockade, by the coalition against
terrorism.
General Musharraf is not likely
to have any choice. In order to save Pakistan which he claims is a fort
of Islam, he will have to accept those conditions and start the process
of cleansing Pakistan.
The Americans are not likely to
overlook president Musharraf's reference, in his speech of September 19,
to the Holy Prophet making tactical compromises with the Jews and residents
of Mecca so that he could later take them on and defeat them.
The war against terrorism cannot
be won unless Pakistan is reclaimed from terrorism. American strategists
are using Pakistan against its terror child -- the Taliban.
While this war is being fought,
the dynamics of it will subject the Pakistani army and elite to enormous
pressure and force them to restructure fundamentally the country's polity.
In that sense, general Musharraf
is right in comparing the present situation to 1971. That war resulted
in a change in Pakistan from military dictatorship to a democracy. This
war is likely to force Pakistan to give up terror as an instrument of policy.
If that does not happen, Pakistan
will be plunged into a near civil war or an actual civil war situation.
If the international community provides adequate and appropriate help,
Pakistan can be helped to rebuild itself as a democracy purged of terrorism.
There are sceptics in this country
who wonder whether the US will go that far. The US will in its own national
interest since the origin of all this terrorism is Pakistan.
All Pakistan's neighbours, including
China, have an interest in ensuring that jehadi elements are removed from
Pakistan. So do the majority of people in that country.
