Author:
Publication: Los Angeles Times
Date: September 23, 2001
(Compiled by Patricia Brown)
We were stunned. Shocked. Terror
on such a vast scale here in the U.S. had seemed unthinkable.
But the warnings were out there
had we chosen to hear, issued by a small band of terrorism experts and
their acolytes. They wrote best-selling books and popular magazine articles.
They conducted hearings and reported to Congress. They joined the dialogue
in academic journals and on university faculties. While none warned specifically
of commercial airliners being commandeered as human-packed missiles, they
did beg us to take seriously what one writer labeled the looming "big,
terrible thing."
But like Cassandra of Greek myth,
who predicted the disaster that a large wooden horse would bring upon Troy,
they were destined to be ignored. Here we have collected some of the unheeded
warnings of our modern Cassandras, along with their thoughts today.
THEN
Three billion men, and it takes
only half a dozen bright and evil ones to harness and deploy.
What are the odds it will happen?
Put it another way: What are the odds it will not? Low. Nonexistent, I
think.
When you consider who is gifted
and crazed with rage...when you think of the terrorist places and the terrorist
countries...who do they hate most? The Great Satan, the United States.
What is its most important place? Some would say Washington. I would say
the great city of the United States is the great city of the world, the
dense 10-mile-long island called Manhattan, the city that is the psychological
center of our modernity, our hedonism, our creativity, our hard-shouldered
hipness, our unthinking arrogance.
If someone does the big, terrible
thing to New York or Washington, there will be a lot of chaos, and things
won't be working so well anymore.
The psychic blow will shift our
perspective and priorities, dramatically, and for longer than a while.
Something tells me more of us will be praying.
* From "There Is No Time, There
Will Be Time," a piece by Peggy Noonan in Forbes, November 1998.
NOW
It feels bad to be right. It isn't
like saying "The Dow will be at 11,000 in 2000" and you're right and you
get high fives. I have been talking about and thinking about The Big Bad
Thing for many years, as have a number of people. But it's funny-Americans
are so sunny by nature that they have trouble hearing warnings. Maybe it's
this simple: people take action when they think they can affect things.
When they think they can't, they don't. World terrorism was too big to
get our attention-until now.
* Peggy Noonan
THEN
We now face distinct possibilities
of mass civilian murder the likes of which have not been seen since World
War II. The specter of terrorism carries with it the threat of violence
aimed at targets merely because of their religious, ethnic or national
identities.... The absence of bombs going off more regularly should not
lull us into a false sense of security. The presence of foreign terrorist
groups means that they have the capabilities of launching attacks here
and the ability. It is a matter of vital national interest to hold hearings
on the presence of foreign terrorist groups on American soil.
* Excerpt from a statement by terrorism
expert Steven Emerson before the Senate Judiciary's Subcommittee on Terrorism,
Technology and Government in February 1998
NOW
The fact that [the hijackers] could
go to flight school in the United States, they could live in communities,
rent safe houses, rent mailboxes across the street from CNBC; the fact
that they could get away with it and not have one scintilla of evidence
come to the attention of the FBI shows that they are deeply adept at coming
in below our radar screen. And that means we have to improve our intelligence.
* Steven Emerson, speaking to CNBC
the day after the hijackings
THEN
[America will become] increasingly
vulnerable to hostile attack on our homeland, and our military superiority
will not entirely protect us. Americans will likely die on American soil,
possibly in large numbers.
* Conclusion of the U.S. Commission
on National Security in the 21st Century, Fall, 1999
NOW
This conclusion...was followed,
on Jan. 31, 2001, with recommendations to President Bush and his Cabinet
to create a National Homeland Security Agency Had such an agency been created,
could this disaster have been prevented? We will never know. But its mandate
to collect human intelligence, to identify likely perpetrators, to apprehend
those same perpetrators, and to coordinate disaster relief efforts, would
have given us a much better chance.
* Former U.S. Sen. Gary Hart, U.S.
Commission on National Security in the 21st Century co-chair, writing in
the Times of London on Sept. 13, 2001
THEN
A federal jury in New York returned
a guilty verdict against the four defendants accused of plotting the terrorist
bombing of the U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania. The successful prosecution
of these murderers represents a great victory .... Unfortunately, the trial
does almost nothing to enhance the safety of Americans. The Al Qaeda group,
headed by the notorious Osama bin Laden, will barely notice the loss of
four operatives. Indeed, recent information shows that Al Qaeda is...planning
new attacks on the U.S.
* From "Terrorism on Trial," an
Op-Ed in The Wall Street Journal by Daniel Pipes (with Steven Emerson).
Published on May 31, 2001
NOW
Militant Islamic violence against
Americans began in 1983 and has continued steadily every few months since,
taking many hundreds of lives. Unfortunately, the U.S. government's anti-terrorism
policy through this long era has been limited to the sort of trial described
above, which, even if successful, is entirely ineffective at deterring
further attacks. Let us hope that the atrocities on Sept. 11 will prod
the government and public to become newly serious about protecting Americans
from this foul aggression.
* Daniel Pipes
THEN
Many of America's most vital industries
and resources are vulnerable to terrorist attack. With little experience
of violence in the United States, Americans tend to feel safe within their
borders and so have not taken the precautions needed to ensure domestic
safety The U.S. will remain vulnerable until a major target is hit.
* From "American Renaissance," by
Marvin Cetron and Owen Davies, published in 1986
NOW
The attacks on the World Trade Center
and Pentagon are models for the future: They killed as many people as possible,
in the most dramatic manner available. The terrorist weapon for the 21st
century is not a bomb or gun, but the minicam. The timing of the World
Trade Center attack-the second plane hitting when cameras would catch it
to best effect-shows both the professionalism and the dramatic sense of
the terrorists. We can expect future attacks to be equally bloody, while
providing great footage for CNN.
Defending against this new brand
of terror will require fundamental changes in American policy. We need
not only spy satellites, but spies. We will not only capture terrorists
and bring them to trial, but assassinate them. In the past, we have criticized
Israel for its ruthless focus on national security. In the future, we will
become Israel.
* Marvin Cetron
THEN
A hit squad from somewhere in the
Middle East travels to New York City carrying a one-liter bottle filled
with one of the several chemical weapons agents we have long known Saddam
Hussein to be developing. Using a simple sprayer...they diffuse the contents
into the air over Times Square on a Saturday night or into the main concourse
at Grand Central Station at 5:30 on a weekday evening. Hundreds, maybe
thousands of people die agonizing deaths as a result.... Is there a defense
against such an event? Probably not. Imagine the televised scenes from
hospital emergency rooms overwhelmed by victims, the weeping relatives,
and then the shots of anti-American demonstrators in Baghdad dancing with
glee in the streets.)
* From "The Greatest Threat," by
Richard Butler, former U.N. chief inspector in Iraq, published in 2000
NOW
I didn't foresee that the weapon
of choice would be commercial airliners piloted by people willing to commit
suicide. But the effects were virtually identical to those described in
my book.
I accept that these terrible enemies
must be punished, but fear that if the punishment is seen to be excessive,
with large-scale civilian deaths in countries attacked, then support for
action against terrorism may vanish. Worse, the sick, demonic picture of
the U.S., which is held by the terrorists and their supporters, will gain
wider acceptance. It must also be feared that there could be terrorist
actions in response to U.S. military action, and the next round might include
other weapons, especially chemical or biological.
* Richard Butler
THEN
The face of terrorism has changed.
Acts by nationalist-separatist groups and social revolutionary groups designed
to call attention to the cause have been replaced by acts by transnational
entities where no credit is claimed. There has been a tendency to increasing
lethality. One explanation for this finding is that more dramatic acts
are required to capture public attention.
But another explanation may be found
in the changing nature of the groups. Religious terrorism has been on the
rise. There has been a rise in radical fundamentalists in all faiths, as
well as emergence of new groups. Religious terrorism, as illustrated by
the bombing of the World Trade Center [in 1993]...is judged to be particularly
dangerous. The perpetrators are killing in the name of God.
* From the International Conference
on Aviation Safety and Security in the 21st Century; the executive summary
on security and terrorism by Jerrold M. Post, a political psychologist
at George Washington University
NOW
What is particularly chilling is
to understand that these are perfectly normal individuals. I've just finished
a study, interviewing 35 incarcerated Middle Eastern terrorists, including
about 18 radical Islamists. And what is very striking is their normality....
They have been led to subordinate their individuality to a radical clerical
leader who tells them that this is not only not immoral, it is a sacred
requirement, an obligation.
This is really a war for people's
minds Bombs and missiles are not going to lead people to be afraid who
are willing to give up their lives. The real issue is how do we take alienated
youth in the Arab world and persuade them, help lead them to the path of
moderate political activism rather than feeling that the only path is to
give their lives for their causes.
* Jerrold M. Post in an interview
with Canada AM's Rod Black on Sept. 17
THEN
"Terrorism is the Siamese Twin of
advancing technological democracy. As such, it cannot but escalate in the
next [21st] century."
"Terrorism...is the least understood
of all contemporary plagues. One reason for that is our unsuitable emotional
response to its [actions]...Anger keeps us from effectively confronting
a menace which is driven far more by political than criminal impulses.
Then there is... our reluctance to accept the fact that our huge defense
machine can be challenged at all by such small capabilities as the terrorists
command. We forget that (the terrorists) principal capabilities are in
the psychological area...every one of their shots is 'heard around the
world."'
* Excerpts from various 1999 papers
by Konrad Kellen-a private consultant on international affairs and terrorism
NOW
"Terrorism" is the war by the weak
against the strong. But that does not mean the strong will win. Like their
opponents, the strong can win only pyrrhic victories; neither can win the
war. Our century will therefore see an escalation of armed violence and
counterviolence. Whether for us to be tough or "reasonable" in dealing
with terrorists is an idle question. Terrorism is fuelled by either response.
"Terrorism" cannot be brought to
an end because every building and every person in America is a lucrative
target, and only a tiny portion of such targets can be "hardened." Terrorists
have the choice of targets, but have not the choice of the psychological
effects of their actions. We have that choice and should use it well.
Our task, then, is primarily a psychological
one: to frustrate the terrorists by not being terrorized.
* Konrad Kellen
THEN
The consequences of international
terrorism may go far beyond anything yet accomplished by the terrorists
themselves We are approaching an age in which national governments may
no longer monopolize the instruments of major destruction. It will not
be possible to satisfy the real or imagined grievances of all the little
groups that will be capable of large-scale disruption and destruction or
to defend everybody against them Warfare will have to be redefined. So
will our ideas of what national defense means.
* From "International Terrorism:
A New Mode of Conflict," by Brian M. Jenkins, published in 1975
NOW
We are at war with terrorism. It
promises to be a long campaign. We must anticipate further terrorist attacks
against Americans, abroad and here. Terrorists will use whatever capabilities
they have, making no distinction between soldiers and civilians. We are
all on the frontline. The survival of our democracy depends on our courage,
our resolve, continued dedication to our ideals of a free society, realism
in the acceptance of risk, stoicism, tolerance, humanity and the sense
of community that we have expressed since Sept. 11. Our very peril will
make us better than we were.
* Brian M. Jenkins, senior advisor
to the president of the Rand Corp., and a specialist on terrorism for the
past several decades
THEN
I can't close this chapter without
addressing the special problems of America's greatest and most vulnerable
city, New York.
Manhattan is a narrow island, cut
off from the rest of the United States by several bridges and four tunnels
.... Viewing the Manhattan skyline is to see one of the wonders of the
world. To a trained counterterrorist, it is a frightening image of too
many high-gain, cost-effective targets for terrorists to aim at.
* "The War Against the Terrorists,"
by Gayle Rivers, published in 1986. (Rivers could not be reached for comment)
