Author: Swagato Ganguly
Publication: The Statesman
Date: September 28, 2001
Will the US led coalition go only
after bin Laden or topple the government that provides him succour? Since
little intelligence appears forthcoming about bin Laden's whereabouts,
one may turn out inseparable from the other.
Bin Laden's recent statements, aired
on a TV channel in Qatar, make manifest how close he is to the Taliban
regime - "we are steadfast on the path of jehad with the heroic, faithful
Afghan people, under the leadership of Mullah Mohammad Omar". One might
add that Mullah Omar, the Taliban's absolute and inscrutable ruler, also
happens to be his father-in-law.
Omar has warned that the Americans
cannot emerge from the current crisis by murdering him and bin Laden, a
message they ought to take seriously. They have to take a hand in the economic
and political reconstruction of Afghanistan, altering the horrific dispensation
Omar has imposed on it with crucial help from Pakistan. The Taliban not
only terrorises its people but also allows the Al Qaida to export terror;
the two have to be treated as part of the same complex.
DARK VISION
To provide an illustration of the
nature of the Taliban regime - it has converted a football stadium, funded
by the UN to provide entertainment to local people, into a locale for the
only sort of entertainment allowed nowadays: public executions. Such things
as television, music and even the flying of kites are anathema. In today's
Afghanistan women are not allowed to go to work or to school; they are
shot in football fields on mere suspicion of adultery.
This dark vision of humanity, emanating
from the middle ages, is not unrelated to the mentality which led to the
destruction of the World Trade Centre. This is not just a war against one
man but a war of ideas. The civilised world should understand that it is
impossible to pursue "business as usual" with the Taliban, even if their
Pakistani mentors try to get them off the hook.
Fortunately there are signs that
the West understands this. Jack Straw, the British foreign secretary, told
the BBC that the international coalition involved in the "war against terrorism"
was keen to ensure a proper government in Afghanistan. The Americans have
initiated contact with the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance. The alliance
has already demonstrated its capabilities by raining rockets on Kabul the
night the World Trade Centre was attacked.
Mohammad Fahim, who succeeded Ahmad
Shah Masood as the commander of the alliance, has held talks with General
Anatoli Kvashin, chief of the Russian general staff, in Dushanbe, the capital
of Tajikistan. Britain has signaled its interest in forming a democratic
regime in Afghanistan; Tony Blair has been in touch with Vajpayee on the
question. Given the involvement of Afghan mujahedin in terrorist attacks
in Kashmir, not to mention the duplicitous role played by the Taliban during
the IC-814 hijack, India should be in the forefront of promoting alternate
political arrangements in Afghanistan.
The difficulties of a military campaign
against the Taliban should not be underestimated. Nevertheless, the analogy
with the Soviet experience in Afghanistan does not hold. In this case,
the Americans will not be trying to hold Afghanistan; they want to turn
it over to a representative government. During the Soviet occupation of
Afghanistan the rebels were supplied and trained by the Americans, the
British and the Pakistanis. In this case, there is an international coalition
backing the Americans, and the Taliban's supply lines can be effectively
cut off.
In an attempt to cover his tracks
Musharraf has called off Pakistani officers and "volunteers" working for
the Taliban, which considerably weakens them. In addition, the harshness
of their regime means that the population, by and large, is hostile to
them.
FOOD FACTOR
A cliché doing the rounds
in the current situation is that Afghan tribals are fiercely independent
and will not brook foreign troops on their territory. This one, however,
can be turned on its head: it remains to be seen whether they will brook
operatives of the Al-Qaida, foreigners who are mostly Arabs, given an opportunity
to be rid of them. After all two Arab men, posing as journalists, assassinated
Ahmad Shah Masood, the leader of the Northern Alliance.
The Americans will not need to deploy
ground troops in large numbers, as they can rely on anti-Taliban groups
already in the country and on the march. President Bush's address to a
joint session of Congress indicated that this is going to be a thoroughly
unconventional war, and made particular mention of special forces and covert
operations.
An offensive by the Northern Alliance,
for example, would draw out the Taliban to defend their territory, in which
case air power could be used to destroy their forces. As more intelligence
comes in with the advance of anti-Taliban forces, special forces or airborne
troops could be used to neutralise the defenders of bin Laden or the Taliban
leadership.
Afghanistan is facing a humanitarian
catastrophe due to shortage of food. The Red Cross, normally allowed to
operate in combat zones, has been drummed out by the Taliban, which has
also seized UN food supplies. Food and other humanitarian aid could be
set up on territory controlled by the alliance. The catastrophe could be
averted by making available large-scale humanitarian aid on alliance-controlled
territory, which would wean the population away from the Taliban.
Afghanistan tends to be portrayed
in somewhat monolithic terms as a fiercely fundamentalist country. The
hegemony of the Taliban, however, is reinforced by the fact that the theological
seminaries run by it offer food and shelter in a country where almost everybody
is hungry. If alternate means of food and shelter become available, the
world will be surprised at the speed with which the Taliban's hegemony
unravels.
NO EXCEPTIONS
Since the US and other Western countries
have declared war on terrorism in the name of democratic principles, instead
of treating Afghanistan as an exception, they should keep faith with the
notion that democracy, humanitarian reconstruction and economic development
can be adequate substitutes for fundamentalism. There can be no more powerful
demonstration of the ideas they stand for, one that would undermine the
ideological terrain on which terrorism thrives.
What may cause headaches is the
constitution of a future government, as the Northern Alliance consists
disproportionately of Panjshiris, Hazaras and Uzbeks, who are distrusted
by the majority Pashtuns. The Pashtuns, in addition, dominate southern
Afghanistan, and make up the majority of the 50,000 strong Taliban army.
Significant overtures, therefore, need to be made to the Pashtuns to form
a representative government, and avoid the danger of the country splitting
into two halves leaving Pakistan to foment trouble again in its southern
half.
It is here that Afghanistan's erstwhile
King Zahir, a Pashtun himself but with whom the northern alliance has been
in touch for the last two years, could act as a bridge figure. Zahir's
reign is seen in retrospect as a period of peace, prosperity and modernisation.
He has himself signalled that he is not interested in reviving the monarchy,
but would not mind presiding, as a symbol of unity and reconciliation,
over an interim administration run by the UN, paving the way for free elections.
At which point, if the international
community is to win the war of ideas, it would have to turn to Pakistan
- the last remaining bulwark of jehadi forces in the region. Its job will
be half-done if it rids Afghanistan of terrorist camps, but leaves Pakistan
untouched.
(The author is Assistant Editor,
The Statesman.)
