Author: Thomas L. Friedman
Publication: The New York Times
Date: February 20, 2002
I could tell that Saudi Arabia had
undergone a big change since I last visited when I checked into the Sheraton
Hotel here and the desk clerk was a Saudi. Five years ago, the hotel owner
would have been a Saudi but the clerks and key hotel personnel all would
have been imported labor from the Philippines, Pakistan or Lebanon. Not
anymore.
Today, with the oil boom over, the
Saudi economy can no longer afford the welfare net that once guaranteed
every Saudi a government job. Since 1980 Saudi Arabia's population has
exploded from 7 million to 19 million, thanks to one of the highest birth
rates in the world and zero family planning. Meanwhile, per-capita oil
income has fallen from $19,000, at the height of the oil boom in 1981,
to about $7,300 today. With less money trickling down to sustain extended
families or bloated government offices, several million Saudis are now
unemployed, underemployed or taking jobs they never would have before.
To soak up all the unemployed here,
Saudi Arabia will have to learn how to drill human oil wells. That is,
its crude oil wells built an impressive infrastructure, but they can't
sustain the future. Saudi Arabia will be able to thrive only if it can
reform its schools to build young people who can innovate and create wealth
from their minds - not just from their wells.
That means revamping the overcrowded
Saudi universities, which right now churn out endless graduates in Islamic
studies or liberal arts, but too few with the technical skills a modern
economy demands. It also means revamping the Saudi legal system to attract
foreign investors to create jobs. That means real transparency, rule of
law, independent courts and anti-corruption measures.
Without those changes, this country
is going to get poorer and poorer, because 40 percent of the population
is under 14 - meaning the biggest population bulge hasn't even hit the
labor market yet. This could be dynamite. In December an end-of-Ramadan
youth brawl erupted on the Jidda coastal road, during which the crowd turned
against the police and shouted anti-government and anti-U.S. slogans, leading
to some 300 arrests.
The good news is that a move was
already afoot before Sept. 11 to begin English education - and more teaching
about the world beyond the domain of Islam - in the fourth grade instead
of the seventh, which will start next year. But with extensive class time
devoted here to teaching Islam, often by rote, shifting students to more
independent thinking in other areas won't be simple, and already has conservatives
grumbling. "We are now in the middle of a major change of our education
system," said Khalid al-Awwad, the deputy education minister for curriculum.
"It will be based on the idea: Think global, act local."
The bad news is that the only top
leader of the al-Saud ruling family who has reformist instincts, and is
untainted by corruption, is the aging Crown Prince Abdullah. But he is
often stymied by his brothers or traditionalists. When the Crown Prince
proposed letting women drive - so Saudi Arabia would not have to employ
500,000 expatriate chauffeurs to shuttle women - he was blocked by conservatives.
This is also a problem for middle-class Saudis who can't afford chauffeurs.
"I have a man who works for me who has three daughters," said a Saudi businessman.
"He's constantly having to leave work to drive his daughters home from
school or somewhere else. It affects productivity." Imagine being a Saudi
man with six daughters and no chauffeur - that's a soccer dad on steroids.
Leaders like to make changes here
the gradual "Saudi way" to keep the peace, but that may no longer be possible.
"You can make people change with time, but do we have the time?" asks Oil
Minister Ali al-Naimi. "With globalization, I don't think we have time.
We are living in a crystal ball now. People see what's happening worldwide
on every screen."
We have a stake in Saudi success.
Almost all of the 15 Saudi hijackers on Sept. 11 came from one of the country's
poorer regions, 'Asir, which has recently undergone a rapid but socially
disruptive modernization. As one middle-class Saudi put it to me: "The
problem here is not Islam. The problem is too many young men with no job
and no university and nowhere to go except to the mosque, where some [radical
preachers] fill their heads with anger for America. Every home now has
two or three not working. This is the real problem."
