Author: Narendra Gupta
Publication: The Indian Express
Date: June 13, 2002
The approach of US Ambassador Robert
Blackwell triggering off an exodus of foreign national from India was not.
as termed by the MEA. 'ham-handed'. It was definitely by design. This is
corroborated by the fact that although there was a lessening of tension
on the borders, the US staff reissued a warning to its citizens 'strongly
urging' them to leave India. On the same day. Britain did exactly the same.
The advisory to leave India was followed by Israel, the UN and some other
countries. Japan chartered an aircraft to fly out its nationals.
Besides creating difficulties for
Indians in obtaining visas, the impact of the citizens of Western countries
and Japan fleeing India is likely to damage the country's economic recovery
and. perhaps, have a long lasting adverse effect on foreign investment
With the departure of foreign members of bilateral organisations, relations
by India with them have got suspended. The US-led exodus in some
sectors is like 'a new kind of sanctions regime'.
Coupled with this action is the
announcement by Lloyd's of London that they are putting some Indian ports
on the list of risky destinations. The list includes Kandla. Jawaharlal
Nehru Port Trust (JLNPT) in Navi Mumbai and Mumbai port. This means that
ships stopping at these ports will have to pay a war-risk premium. The
export of food-grains and the import of edible oil from these ports will
be affected by the additional premium.
It would be important to determine
the game plan for these apparently unconnected actions by the Western powers.
Last week. President Pervez Musharraf has promised the US Deputy Secretary
of State, Richard Armitage. that Pakistan will curb all trans-border incursions
into India. In return, Armitage wanted the Government of India to reciprocate
appropriately to reduce the tension on the borders.
It is, therefore, apparent that
the travel advisory and the additional levy at Indian ports is nothing
but a gentle arm-twist or an attempt to economically coerce India to accede
to the wishes of the Western powers. This is probably to provide a quid
pro quo for their old ally Pakistan.
Countries have realised the importance
of trade, finance and markets for the well being of a country and its people.
Since it is politically prudent to avoid the use of military force, the
currency of power has shifted substantially from military force to economic
clout.
However, the American attempt is
very thinly disguised. There are a large number of expatriates not convinced
by the war scare and who are staying put at their posts. These in-dude
Coca-Cola chief Alex Von Behr. head of SmithKline Beecham Simon Scarff;
Bruoe Wehlau, the CEO of Axcend India. The staffs of Citibank and GE are
also not convinced about any impending war.
At the same time, TV teams from
various American channels arc in India. NBC has an agenda of showing the
likelihood of a nuclear war in India. When a defence analyst told them
that there was going to be no war, let alone a nuclear war, they did not
appear convinced as it was probably against their brief-The CBS anchor
was fixated about Kashmir. Upon being told that the present confrontation
was not about Kashmir but about trans-border terrorism, he did not seem
convinced. Obviously, disinformation was to be fed to the American public.
It appeared quite contrary to the travel advisory that these two teams
were moving about quite freely and comfortably in New Delhi without any
fear of war!
Although the Pakistani president
has made the right sounds and has impressed the American officials, we
need to be very circumspect in agreeing to de-escalate our military posture
or our diplomatic decisions, regardless of pressure by the various major
powers. Were we to accept any lowering of our guard without Pakistan implementing
irrevocably on the ground all its promises, the efforts made by India in
the last two months will be lost without any gains whatsoever. Were that
to happen, we would never be able to replicate our actions from the same
moral high ground and get Pakistan to agree to what it has now.
(The Writer is a retired air vice-marshal)
