Author:
Publication: www.stratfor.com
Date: June 18, 2002
URL: http://www.stratfor.com/standard/analysis_view.php?ID=204900
Farooq Abdullah, India's chief minister
of Kashmir, announced June 18 that assembly elections in Indian-controlled
Jammu and Kashmir would be held in October, with the new government taking
power by Oct. 14. From New Delhi's point of view, the election is a crucial
test of the Pakistani government's commitment and ability to control militants
in Pakistan-controlled Kashmir.
Indian officials realize that Islamabad
couldn't restrain the militants even if it wanted to. But New Delhi wants
and needs to clearly show the rest of the world, particularly the United
States, that Pakistan is an irresponsible neighbor and therefore an untrustworthy
ally in the global war against terrorism.
In late May Indian media cited unnamed
military officials as saying New Delhi would hold off on attacking Pakistan
if Islamabad would ensure that Kashmiri militants would not interfere with
the October election in Jammu and Kashmir. The military later called the
report speculation. In either case, New Delhi will not draw down its troop
levels along the Line of Control in Kashmir or the rest of the border with
Pakistan until after October due to the possibility of more militant attacks
in the run up to the election.
This will keep India in a position
to strike into Pakistan or Pakistan-controlled Kashmir if the situation
deteriorates rapidly. And there are already signs that Pakistani-based
militants are preparing to disrupt the polls. Indian forces June 18 killed
a Hizbul Mujahideen militant in south Kashmir, who in addition to weapons
and communication gear was carrying "stockpiles of anti-election campaign
materials," the Hindustan Times reported.
For Islamabad, the pre-election
period is also of critical importance. International attention continues
to focus on Pakistan as the emerging center of al Qaeda operations and
activity. Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf is already under increasing
domestic pressure for attempting to rein in Kashmiri militants and quell
al Qaeda activities. This puts him in a tough position because if his campaign
is successful, it will trigger a domestic backlash, but if it is unsuccessful,
it will further weaken his foreign standing.
For New Delhi, then, the Jammu-Kashmir
election is shaping up as a win-win situation, especially as the All Party
Hurriyat Conference, a collection of Kashmiri nationalist and pro-Pakistani
parties, appears set to boycott the poll due to the ongoing standoff between
India and Pakistan. This would leave the door wide open for the pro-Indian
parties participating in the election.
If India avoids the militant attacks
and the polls go off without a hitch, then New Delhi proves to the world
that the people of Kashmir support Indian control. If the elections are
compromised by militant activity, however, New Delhi has a clear case against
Pakistan and may turn the United States against its former ally, allowing
India or Washington to take care of the militant problem with a military
olution.
