Author: Shishir Gupta
Publication: India Today
Date: June 24, 2002
Introduction: US Defence Secretary
Donald Rumsfeld's visit offers further evidence that India's coercive diplomacy
is paying significant dividends
This is, in every sense of the phrase,
a defining moment in the history of India's decade-old war against cross-border
terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir. Admittedly, it has come with considerable
help from Washington. Even so, it has the potential to permanently end
infiltration of Pakistan-backed terror groups. Or, in a worst-case scenario,
keep them penned up till the October elections in Jammu and Kashmir are
over, in itself a major victory for Indian diplomacy.
No wonder External Affairs Minister
Jaswant Singh looked tired but elated after the visits of US Deputy Secretary
of State Richard Armitage and Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld. While
Armitage had conveyed the unambiguous message that Pakistan President General
Pervez Musharraf has decided to "permanently" end infiltration into Jammu
and Kashmir, Rumsfeld declared, "I have seen indications that the Al-Qaida
is operating near the Line of Control (LoC) in Jammu and Kashmir."
In effect, the international community
is now substantiating the Indian stand that Pakistan is squarely behind
the wave of terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir. South Block has other reasons
to celebrate. Since the Kaluchak massacre, the External Affairs Ministry
and the Prime Minister's Office (PMO) have shown remarkable synergy in
handling the international community and the diplomatic-military offensive
against Pakistan. For the past month, Jaswant and the man widely perceived
as his bete noire, Brajesh Mishra, national security adviser and principal
secretary to the prime minister, have marched in step and consulted each
other on the Indian response to Pakistani actions and pressure from the
international community almost on a daily basis. The duo gambled on coercive
diplomacy rather than the military option against Pakistan and it appears
to have paid off, at least for the present.
Shortly after returning from a visit
to the subcontinent, UK's Foreign Secretary Jack Straw told the House of
Commons on June 10 that Britain was convinced there was a "clear link"
between the Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and terrorist groups
such as the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT), Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) and Harkat-ul-Mujahideen.
More significantly, Straw added that there was no point in getting involved
in the "historiographical exercise" of UN Security Council resolutions
on Kashmir. Instead, it was important to find a way out to resolve the
"bilateral dispute that has international implications".
For Islamabad and General Pervez
Musharraf-till recently the poster boy of the global coalition against
terror-the irony could not have been starker and the message more explicit.
Straw's House of Commons statement and Rumsfeld's comments are clear indicators
that the major global players now side with Delhi on its stand that de-escalation
on the India-Pakistan borders and a dialogue with Islamabad is only possible
after a visible end of cross-border terrorism in Kashmir and dismantling
of the terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (PoK). Addressing
the Asia Society on June 10, US Secretary of State Colin Powell said: "Musharraf
has assured us the cessation of activity would be visible and would be
permanent and would be followed by other activities that had to do with
the dismantling of camps that led to the capacity to conduct these kind
of operations." This is precisely the response India was hoping for.
In diplomacy, there are no free
lunches. The US and UK want both India and Pakistan to undertake a cycle
of mutually reinforced actions that lead to de-escalation of tensions and
finally a dialogue on all outstanding issues, including Jammu and Kashmir.
That process is already in motion. Last week, Delhi lifted the January
1 ban on Pakistani aircraft and airlines using Indian airspace, recalled
the operationally deployed Indian Navy's warships from the Arabian Sea
and decided "in principle" to send its high commissioner back to Islamabad.
India's actions are based on its
assessment that infiltration into Jammu and Kashmir is visibly on the decline.
Intelligence reports say that only 40-45 infiltrators had crossed the LoC
since Musharraf's aggressive May 27 speech and satellite imagery has shown
tents housing terrorists near Muzaffarabad in PoK being taken down. During
his recent visit, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Anatoly Safanov had been
taken to PoK by the Pakistani Army in order to convince Moscow of steps
Islamabad had taken against Kashmir terrorists and their infrastructure.
This information was later conveyed to Delhi by the Russians.
Further, India is no longer making
an issue of the list of 20 terrorists whose extradition it has been demanding.
Armitage, during his visit, had told his Indian counterpart that while
Musharraf was committed to ending infiltration, he had cited "Pakistan
honour and dignity" to justify Islamabad's refusal to act on the list.
The Indian Government has also selected Harsh Bhasin as India's high commissioner
to Pakistan though his name has not yet been sent to Islamabad for formal
accreditation. On other issues raised by the Americans, India has dug in
its heels. One was that India should withdraw its strike aircraft from
the forward bases near the India-Pakistan border. India says it wants Musharraf
to not only turn off "the tap of infiltration but drain the reservoir feeding
Kashmir terrorism" before it will agree to any such step. Delhi has pointed
out that as late as June 8, six terrorists tried to cross the LoC in Mendhar
sector in Jammu and Kashmir despite the presence of a Pakistani Army picket
on their route. Delhi told Rumsfeld that terrorists are still waiting to
infiltrate into Jammu and Kashmir from "launch pads" in PoK. The Indian
assessment is that more than 2,500 terrorists are massed along the LoC
in Gurez, Kupwara, Baramullah, Uri and Poonch sectors.
Further, radio intercepts prove
that PoK-based terrorists are still in touch with their fellow jehadis
in Jammu and Kashmir, exhorting them to keep their powder dry for another
day. The Indian leadership made it clear to Rumsfeld that the US could
not "segment" its fight against terrorism by restricting its anti-Al-Qaida
operations to Afghanistan and Pakistan tribal areas. Implicit in this was
the suggestion that the US should also take action against terrorist groups
such as LeT and JeM in Pakistan, the support base of the global Al-Qaida
network.
The key issue now is a mechanism
to patrol the LoC and monitor activities in PoK. Delhi has proposed joint
patrolling of the LoC by troops from both sides while Islamabad wants international
observers. Home Minister L.K. Advani told a British newspaper that India
would prefer international observers in PoK instead, since terrorists were
infiltrating from the Pakistani side.
The bottom line, as far as Delhi
is concerned, is that once tension is reduced and infiltration visibly
ended, India would like a joint patrolling mechanism with Pakistani troops.
Both sides would be equipped with sophisticated electronic sensors to detect
infiltration. In fact, during his trip to the US in January, Advani was
specially briefed by Kent Biringer, director, Sandia National Laboratories,
New Mexico, on how electronic sensors can be used to make infiltration
difficult for PoK-based terrorists. The US may be willing to sell underground
sensors to India as part of the direct military sales under the ongoing
bilateral defence cooperation though Rumsfeld said that the proposal for
sensors "did not reach any conclusion". Washington, however, has indicated
its willingness to share technical and human intelligence on terrorists
and terror groups with both India and Pakistan.
The Indian perception is that Pakistan
will check infiltration but at the same time ask its jehadis operating
inside Jammu and Kashmir to raise the level of violence close to the assembly
elections in the state. Islamabad can then claim that the violence is part
of the indigenous "freedom struggle" and not terrorism. Islamabad is hoping
its current moves to stop infiltration will give it the leverage to exert
international pressure on Delhi to resolve the Kashmir dispute on a priority
basis. On a visit to the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia last week,
Musharraf termed the recent Indian steps to defuse tensions "cosmetic"
and reiterated his three-point formula for peace in the region: de-nuclearisation
of South Asia, strengthening of deterrents and resolution of the Kashmir
issue.
The Indian government is fully aware
that the Americans are planning some action against Iraq, possibly by September.
Hence, American pressure for the start of a dialogue on Kashmir and de-escalation
of forces can only get stronger. However, Delhi is taking no chances. Indian
Army commanders met last week and decided that there will be no change
in force "posturing" or withdrawal of troops along the western borders
at least till the Jammu and Kashmir elections since it would be difficult
to mobilise again if there is another terrorist strike. The commanders
decided to undertake "cost cutting measures" (it costs Rs 33 lakh per day
to operationally maintain a strike corps near the border). The Indian Air
Force has already stopped augmenting its forward air bases with more personnel
last week but there is no change in its operational status. Even though
the navy has pulled back, it has the capability to re-deploy within 12
hours.
All this is to convey to Washington
and Islamabad that the threat of war may be receding but Delhi will need
a lot more evidence before Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee finally
agrees to shake Musharraf's hand.
