Author: M V Kamath
Publication: Organiser
Date: June 16, 2002
Introduction: Musharraf is a nobody
who, if he still continues to be in power, does so by grace and favour
of the united States. Pakistan is an occupied country. US troops are stationed
in Pakistan and if Washington gives the nod, all of Pakistan's nukes, nuclear
centres and weaponry could be put under lock and key in five minutes flat.
What the west has to worry about
is not a war between Pakistan and India but an uprising in Pakistan itself
that can go out-of-hand.
Let us face up to truth. India is
being fooled not by the likes of General Pervez Musharraf-he is completely
irrelevant-but by the western powers and more notably the United States.
Gen Musharraf can fret and fume, he can test-fire a dozen missiles if he
cares to, he can make distasteful statements concerning India's treatment
of its so-called minorities, but it is not he India has to reckon with
but the man who presides over the fortunes of the United States of America,
George Bush. It isn't even worthwhile for India to answer Musharraf or
rebut his arguments. To begin with there are hardly any minorities worth
counting in Pakistan. They all left Pakistan years ago or have since been
driven away. The dalits there are treated like slaves, fit only to' clothe
menial jobs. How many dalits have ever made it to the Pakistan legislatures?
How many have ever become ministers? The General cannot hide the fact that
Pakistan is an Islamic state where minorities have no place. Only a sick
mind like his can, throw mud at India. But if anybody thinks he is a power
to be reckoned with, he has another guess coming. He is a nobody who, 'if
he still continues to be in power, does so by grace and favour of the United
States. Pakistan is an occupied country. US troops are stationed in Pakistan
and if Washington gives the nod, all of Pakistan's nukes, nuclear centres
and weaponry could be put under lock and key in five minutes flat. The
US troops are not there to please Mushrraf; he himself can be placed in
a lock-up and not a dog will bark. For the time being it pleases the United
States to let him bloat his power. He is useful for Washington at this
stage, just as his military. predecessors in years past starting from Yakub
Khan down were useful in America's fight against die then Soviet Union.
Presently Pakistan's usefulness has to deal not with the Cold War but with
the oil resources of Central Asia. It may not be all that well known but
right now there are nearly 3,000 US Army personnel in Khirgistan, an unspecified
but increasing number in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan and in all there are
thirteen major US air bases in the CIS countries. And let it also be known:
the US is physically present in large numbers in Afghanistan, the Philippines,
Japan, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman, not to speak of
Germany and some other NATO states. If the United States so desires, it
can place all of Pakistan's nuclear weaponry in safe custody or have them
transferred to another country and Musharraf will only be left to grind
his teeth. That is the truth and the whole truth about Pakistan's show
of muscles. The United States does not want to see Musharraf humiliated
and will let him do some play-acting; it is not Musharraf that India has
to deal with but George Bush. In this matter even Blair is irrelevant.
For the time being it pays the United States to frighten India a bit. It
is not by accident that stories have been floated by western agencies that
in a short war Pakistan will have the upper hand, that Pakistan, in fact,
has more nuclear weapons than has India or that in a short nuclear war
the total casualties will exceed 12 million. The whole idea is to persuade
India to make some solid concessions to Musharraf. This is a pressure that
is different from the kind that is being exerted on Pakistan. This is more
subtle pressure which, surely, Delhi understands full well. The question
is whether India can make some meaningful concessions to Pakistan to help
Musharraf save his face. It must be remembered that he does not have his
country with him. Several political parties have openly refused to accept
his invitation for a meeting. These parties loathe him. He knows, too,
that the ,referendum' that he recently 'won', was a major farce. There
is a small segment within the Pakistan Army that Musharraf cannot control.
Even his hold on the ISI is tenuous. The ISI is still going its own way
and that is no secret either to Musharraf or to the United States. Against
this background India has to maintain its cool. In 'order to help Pakistan
handle its domestic problems, the World Bank has agreed to give Islamabad
$500 million. Pakistan can be brought to its knees not only by delaying
economic aid but also by futurely refusing it any more. Japan has already
made it clear to Musharraf that, should he continue, with his war-like
preparations Tokyo may turn off its aid. That is just the beginning. More
such threats from other countries are likely to follow. India may take
credit for making some sound diplomatic moves, but by and large Musharraf
has no friends. He says he will not start a war; he knows full well that
he cannot afford one, even if the western powers generously permit him
to initiate a conflict. He has hardly $5 billion in his kitty and in a
week's time he will go bankrupt. What the west and again, the United States
in particular - has to worry about is not a war between Pakistan and India
but an uprising in Pakistan itself that can go out-of hand. Islamabad's
hold over Baluchistan and Sindh, at best, is tenuous. According to the
International Centre for Peace Initiatives, internal contradictions within
the Pakistan Army are such that its basic unity is questionable. For instance,
the army has shown a reluctance to take action against Markazud-Dawa Wal
Irshad (MDI) or Jama'at ud Da'awa (its new name), even though the group
leader Hafiz Saeed was arrested. Says the ICPI: "The masses have sympathisers
in the army who can just decide not to follow orders from the top, despite
the highly professional nature of the Pakistani army so far. Merely because
the Pakistani army has not yet experienced a serious revolt so far, it
does not necessarily rule out such a possibility in the future". This does
not mean that India should not keep up its own pressure on Pakistan, especially
along the Line of Control. Given time, Pakistan may collapse under its
own internal contradictions when it will be time for India to move in.
But in everything it is wise to coordinate all action with that of the
United States, as long as it is in India's interests to do so, always remembering
that what the United States does is what it thinks is in its own interests,
and that is a policy that India, too, must follow. India must not reveal
its hand to anybody, least of all to Pakistan. Musharrafs bullying must
be taken for what it is: bullying. When Pakistan says that it will not
hesitate to use nuclear weapons it has already conceded defeat on the military
front. But from now onwards Washington must be told that for every drop
of blood shed in India at the hands of terrorists, the United States itself
is to blame. Musharraf may not be able to stop terrorists. But the United
States can. And should.
