Author: Brahma Chellaney
Publication: The Hindustan Times
Date: June 2, 2002
URL: http://www.hindustantimes.com/nonfram/020602/detfor03.asp
The Musharraf regime is employing
nuclear blackmail to deter India from attacking terrorist sanctuaries inside
Pakistan, and using diplomatic blackmail against the US by threatening
to divert troops from the Afghan border.
Disabling Pakistan's nuclear blackmail
holds the key to forcing it to act against transnational terrorists on
its soil.
While the West constantly worries
about terrorists acquiring weapons of mass destruction, Pakistan continues
to harbour state-supported terrorists with its nuclear weapons being controlled
by Islamist generals.
The present crisis offers an opportunity
to the US and India to advance their common goal to see a moderate Pakistan
cleansed of its terrorist networks and nuclear perils.
India has already made an important
contribution to 'Operation Enduring Freedom' by compelling Musharraf in
January, under the threat of war, to agree to clamp down on terror groups.
The challenge since then has to
make Musharraf translate his promises into deeds. Pakistan's disinclination
to match its anti-terrorism pledges with deeds has paralleled India's reluctance
so far to match its reprisal threats with action.
But with the approaching monsoon
rains intensifying pressure on India to act before its military options
are constrained, US Deputy
Secretary of State Richard Armitage
and Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld need to deliver some blunt messages
to Musharraf when they separately visit the region in the coming days.
As President Bush put it, it is
for Musharraf to defuse the crisis by halting cross- border incursions.
Despite the doomsday scenarios being
conjured up in the West, this is an on-going conflict and an increase in
fighting cannot necessarily signal Armageddon.
Unless US pressure can make Musharraf
pull back from the brink, Pakistan's one- sided war against India would
become two sided.
The best way for Rumsfeld and Armitage
to accomplish their missions is to explicitly convey to Musharraf that
the US will not allow Pakistan to employ nuclear terror to shield its export
of terror. If this failing state, brimming with jehadis dared to unsheathe
its Chinese-aided nuclear weapons at any point, US and Indian forces should
be ready to swoop down and take them out.
With the US military in a position
to control Pakistan's airspace, the Pakistani generals should know that
US forces would not sit back and allow them to carry out a nuclear first
strike against India.
Stripped of their ability to engage
in nuclear blackmail, these generals will then have no choice but to clamp
down on their surrogate terror networks.
