Author: Celia W. Dugger
Publication: The New York Times
Date: June 5, 2002
Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee
briefly lifted hopes this morning for a rapprochement between India and
Pakistan when he said India would consider joint patrols with Pakistani
troops to catch Islamic militants trying to sneak into Indian Kashmir.
But the hopes were short lived.
The notion that India, on the brink of war with Pakistan, would agree to
let Pakistani soldiers patrol its territory seemed incredible - and it
was.
Indian officials quickly clarified
that Mr. Vajpayee meant that such patrols could only start after the current
crisis had past and India itself was convinced that Pakistan has stopped
helping the militants cross the line that divides Kashmir between them
- militants who have committed terrorist acts against Indian civilians.
"The positions remain the same,"
said P.K. Bandyopadhyay, spokesman for India's ministry of defense. "To
take it as a thaw in relations is premature."
Pakistan did not like the idea,
anyway. Pakistan's military ruler, President Pervez Musharraf, has suggested
that the United States or the United Nations independently monitor infiltration
- an idea Mr. Vajpayee rejected as "impractical."
"Given the state of Pakistan-India
relations, mechanisms for joint patrolling are unlikely to work," Pakistan's
foreign office said.
The confusion about the joint patrolling
idea is symptomatic of the deeper confusion about whether Gen. Musharraf's
claim that he has stopped the infiltration of militants is true. This is
the key issue in the current military standoff - one in which the two nations
have had a million troops at the ready along their border since December.
Senior Indian intelligence officials
here in the capital say that it's still too early to know whether the general
did, as he claims, order his army commanders to seal the line of control
in Kashmir and stop infiltration. India's home minister, L.K. Advani, took
the same position.
Indian military and intelligence
officials in Kashmir itself say they believe, based on intercepts, that
the order has been given not to cross into Indian territory and that infiltration
is down - though they, too, say there is still no definitive evidence.
But today, Mr. Vajpayee said it
continues. "We have information that infiltration is on and terrorist camps
are functioning across the border," he said at a press conference in Almaty,
Kazakhstan after attending a regional meeting on regional security. "As
per one assessment, over 3,000 terrorists are active in these camps."
And India's defense minister, George
Fernandes, told reporters in Bangalore, "There is no concrete evidence
of any substantial or noticeable drop in infiltration."
The uncertainty about levels of
infiltration has translated into an uncertainty about whether India and
Pakistan are headed for war or peace. Some days, officials say things that
raise the hope the crisis may be defused. Today would not rank as one of
those days.
Asked Wednesday whether tensions
were easing, Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld, captured the mercurial
tone of the crisis. "At various times during the day, you might say, `My
goodness, that's a good sign,' or `My goodness, that's not such a good
sign.' And it happens from day to day it shifts and changes somewhat."
In Lahore, Rawalpindi and other
cities across the Pakistani province of Punjab, there were moments that
seemed like bad signs. Sirens wailed during air raid drills to test preparations
for a possible air attack by India. Officials also checked the readiness
of bomb disposal squads and police emergency services.
In Washington, President Bush appealed
to the leaders of India and Pakistan today to use words rather than guns
to resolve their differences. But with feelings still high, the State Department
strongly urged Americans in those two nuclear-armed countries to leave
and said Americans planning to travel to the region should postpone their
trips.
Mr. Bush called Prime Minister Vajpayee
and President Musharraf , urging them to "take steps that will ease tensions
in the region and reduce the risk of war," Ari Fleischer, the chief White
House spokesman, told reporters.
Mr. Vajpayee returned to the capital
today after the meeting in Almaty, but before he left he gave a news conference
where he took India's usual tough line. He said there will be no talks
or de-escalation of India's military build up until India believes Pakistan
has dismantled what India calls "the infrastructure of terrorism."
India launched its military build
up in December after five heavily armed men attacked Parliament. The latest
installment of this crisis began May 14 when three men murdered 32 people
in the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir. Most of the victims were wives
and children of soldiers. India blamed both attacks on Pakistan-backed
militants.
"Pakistan claims infiltration has
stopped," Mr. Vajpayee said today. "But we want the terrorist camps across
the border to be closed down too. After these steps are taken and verification
of these actions are carried out, we can think of further steps which could
lead towards a de-escalation."
Mr. Vajpayee's statements suggested
that India is not willing to engage in a diplomatic process in which Pakistan
would first stop infiltration, then wait for a reciprocal gesture from
India - perhaps, moving some troops away from the border - before Pakistan
moved on to dismantle the camps. Some western diplomats have hoped such
a process could begin with the issue of infiltration.
But Mr. Vajpayee's remarks today
suggested that Pakistan will have to stop infiltration and dismantle the
camps before India would be willing to take concrete steps to reduce tensions.
