Author: M.V. Kamath
Publication: The Free Press Journal
Date: June 6, 2002
URL: http://www.samachar.com/features/060602-fpj.html
After permitting General Pervez
Musharraf to indulge in a lot of bluff and bluster, the western powers
are slowly beginning to increase their pressure on Islamabad. This is clear
from the firm statements made by British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw both
in Pakistan and in India. In Islamabad Straw made it very clear to Musharraf
that he can't pass off terrorists as "freedom fighters" and that "all the
memberstates of the United Nations, including Pakistan, have the responsibility
to bear down effectively and consistently on all forms of terrorism, including
cross-border terrorism". That is telling it as it is. For some weeks now,
the western powers let Musharraf have his way to keep him in power. The
western powers need him not only to finish off the al Qaida in Afghanistan
but to contain fundamentalism in the oil rich C.I.S. countries in central
Asia, notably Kirghistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Kazakhistan.
The western powers are afraid that if Pakistan collapses, then they will
have a major problem on hand. It is for that reason that Musharraf was
given some leeway. But Musharraf knows - and all the world knows - that
if the United States so wants it, it can lock up all of Pakistan's nukes
and missiles and, if necessary Musharraf himself.
Pakistan enjoys only a limited amount
of sovereignty. He has really no powers; he has to take orders from Washington
or else. True, the western media, taking a cue from the State Department
has been telling frightening stories about what Pakistan can do. One story
said that in the short run Pakistan can beat India. Another said that Pakistan
has three times the nuclear bombs that India possesses. A third story said
that in a nuclear war as many as a 100 million people can get killed and
grievously wounded. All these stories are planted ones to get India to
make concessions to Pakistan beyond what it is willing to make. India has
treated such stories with the contempt they deserve. India also has not
shown much concern to the threatening noises Musharraf has been making
in statement after statement, and has treated them coolly, if not with
measured disdain. And that is the way Musharraf should be dealt with.
But let this be plain: if the western
powers want to, all of Pakistan's nuclear bombs can be put out or transferred
to some other country for safe keeping. And even if they are left intact
in Pakistan, no military leader dare use them. In this matter of use of
nuclear weapons, there are no two minds in the western world. Musharraf
by now has learnt his lesson. Commanders of Pakistan-based militant groups
are trying to evolve a new strategy. According to reliable reports, the
latest crackdown on orders of Musharraf has ended infiltration - even if
for the time being. Musharraf's theory that Pakistan's support to insurgency
in Jammu & Kashmir is based on moral grounds has had no takers. The
latest information is that the Pakistan government has blocked the wireless
communication system used by militants on both sides of the LoC.
There is also specific information
that Hizb-ul-Mujahideen supremo Syed Salahuddin is in trouble. For India
these may be short term diplomatic gains and it is keeping its ears on
the ground. So far India has been playing its cards well and has not allowed
itself to be pushed around or to take recourse to war. The truth is that
even while the western powers want to clamp down on terrorism, they want
Musharraf at least for the time being. Pakistan's usefulness to the western
powers is not yet over. During the time of Yakub Khan, Pakistan was useful
as a front line state in the Cold War. Subsequently, it was useful to keep
the Soviet Union out of Afghanistan.
Now that Russia has been formally
taken into the NATO block as a junior partner, the US needs Pakistan for
it to keep an eye on the oil-rich CIS countries. What is not so well known
is that the United States, to quote The Economist, is hunkering down in
Central Asia. Presently there are nearly 3,000 US and western army personnel
in Khirgistan. At Manas airport, near Bishkek, the capital of Khirgistan,
a multi-national force has encamped. Says The Economist: (4 May): "A dozen
bombers, six American and six French, support the war against remnants
of the Taliban regime and the al-Qaida network. There are tanker aircraft
supplied by Australia and France, and transporters from Spain, the Netherlands,
Denmark and Norway. South Korea has sent a medical team".
Just the money spent on items such
as fuel, gravel, food and makeshift beds is estimated at $ 16 million,
a tidy sum in a country of 4.9 million where the majority lives in utter
poverty. But it is not just Khirgistan that is of importance to the US.
As The Economist again put it: "Central Asia's growing strategic importance
for America and its friends is also affecting the region's atmosphere in
more subtle ways". For example neighbouring Uzbekistan has also provided
a military base, at Khanabad, for western forces. The immediate explanation
is that these bases are wanted to destroy the al Qaida in Afghanistan,
What is unsaid is that the western forces in these bases will also be needed
to keep Central Asia's oil resources firmly in the control of the West.
This is where Pakistan, and its
military ruler Musharraf come in handy for the United States. Neither can
be let down to a point where a resurrection is possible. According to the
International Centre for Peace Initiatives there are "ominous signs" of
revolt, as in the emergence of a new group in Pakistan called the National
Movement for the Restoration of Pakistani Sovereignty. This group came
into existence as recently as February 2002 and some of the former heads
of ISI - like General Moahammed Ahmed who was sacked in October 2001 -
are known to be closely associated with this Group. This Group can create
trouble for Musharraf - and might even try to oust him from power. All
regime changes in Pakistan have been abrupt in the form of palace coups.
General Ayub Khan removed Iskander
Mirza. Yahya Khan removed Ayub. General Zia removed and hanged Zulfiqar
Ali Bhutto; Farooq Leghari, Benazir Bhutto's chosen President, dismissed
her and Musharraf himself replaced Nawaz Sharief. The United States may
have had a hand in all developments, but, as of now Washington wants Musharraf
and is giving him plenty of leeway. But it cannot allow him to keep fostering
terrorists. Hence the strong words used by Straw in condemning Pakistan.
That can be said to be just the beginning. If Pakistan will not give in
there are other ways of squeezing Islamabad by refusing him economic aid.
Only recently the World Bank granted Pakistan a loan of $ 500 million but
Japan is now saying that if Islamabad will not put a halt to terrorism,
it may discontinue aid. That is a sign of things to come.
Pakistan can be brought to its knees
without India firing a single shot. All that it has to do is to persuade
the western powers to withhold aid to Pakistan. That,one suspects is already
being done. That explains Delhi's somewhat relaxed attitude towards Pakistan.
If by now Musharraf has not learnt that his bluff has been called, he must
be a very stupid person indeed. A senior US administrative official has
been quoted as saying that the US has "reason to believe that President
Musharraf will live up to his promises". He will. He has no alternative.
But what will that do to him? He
could be, of course, ousted, with just the ruthlessness he showed in ousting
Nawaz Sharief. He could be killed, as Zia was killed, even if that meant
sacrificing a senior US official in the bargain. He could seek asylum in
the United States or some other country of his choice. Why, even India
may offer him residence in his ancestral home in Delhi. Musharraf has already
said in public that he wished he could share power with a Prime Minister.
If he is ousted, the Army, or the ISI could name their own man. But will
the US permit it? The greater likelihood is that Benazir Bhutto can then
be brought back to the scene so that she can take the rap for halting terrorism
in Jammu and Kashmir and even for making peace with India brokered by a
western power or by the United Nations itself. If it won't be Musharraf,
it could be someone else who will usher in a new Tashkent. Putin may be
used as an instrument for ushering in peace in south Asia not only on behalf
of western powers but on behalf of the United Nations itself. Right now
Pakistan has no friends, even if Musharraf is sending his emissaries to
friendly - predominantly Muslim - countries to win their support.
So, it behoves India to maintain
a low profile and to let the western powers do its job, albeit unwillingly
and even hesitatingly. It should not, of course, withdraw its forces from
the LoC until Pakistan shows on the ground that no more infiltration of
terrorists will be permitted. It may be too early to make surmises, but
one suspects that peace moves are on and that a lot of bargaining is going
on behind our backs. Jaswant Singh may say for the record that there are
no chances of Vajpayee meeting Musharraf in Almaty, since he cannot say
anything else without needlessly raising high hopes. But after all that
has been said and done by western powers, it is clear that Musharraf will
have to give in. India may be asked to provide him with some face-saving
moves which India should be willing to make. Peace is more important than
vengefulness. But these moves should not be of the kind that Indira Gandhi
conceded in Simla. Therein lies true diplomacy.
