Author: Manoj Joshi
Publication: The Times of India
Date: June 10, 2002
URL: http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow.asp?art_id=12498206&sType=1
Introduction: Silver Lining in Kashmir's
Cloud
Conventional wisdom suggests that
the 13-year-long Pakistan-backed insurgency in Kashmir has not only taken
the lives of over 30,000 persons, but has, in the process, altered the
social and cultural fabric of the state. What has been lost in this time,
say observers, is Kashmiriyat, the unique culture of the state that defies
the religious divide and celebrates its ethnic and religious diversity.
The 13 long years have seen militancy
turn from an emotional upsurge demanding azadi in the Valley, to a Pakistani
proxy war against India using a slew of Islamic fundamentalist organisations
like the Lashkar-e-Taiba and the Jaish-e-Mohammed. The years have also
seen the systematic elimination of 'Kashmiri' leaders - be they secular
radicals like Abdul Ahad Guru and Abdul Ghani Lone, or religious leaders
like Mirwaiz Mohammed Farooq and Qazi Nisar.
Last week, the findings of a poll
conducted by Britain's largest independent market research agency, Mori,
have turned conventional wisdom on its head. This is all the more remarkable
considering that the poll was commissioned by Lord Eric Avebury, a British
human rights activist who backs virtually every separatist movement in
the world, not excluding those in Kashmir and Punjab.
The prominent finding of the poll,
as reported by Indian newspapers, has been that 61 per cent of the respondents
would like to remain Indian citizens with just 6 per cent opting for Pakistan.
Separatist views are presumably hidden in the 33 per cent of those who
came up with the answer 'don't know' to the question: "Do you think you
would be better off politically and economically as an Indian citizen or
as a Pakistani citizen?"
But the heart of the poll is elsewhere:
The 81 per cent who want the unique cultural identity of J&K to be
preserved and feel that the return of Kashmiri Pandits to their homes would
help in restoring peace. Buttressing this: An overwhelming 92 per cent
oppose the religious and ethnic division of the state. A segmental analysis
of the poll confirms the failure of the jehadis to alter the warp and woof
of Kashmir's culture. By and large, Muslim and Hindu respondents have come
up with similar responses. Despite years of fundamentalist propaganda and
bloodletting, Kashmiriyat is alive.
The surprise finding of the poll
is Pakistan's poor image in Kashmir. Distrust of Islamabad and its motives
show up repeatedly in responses to the questions. While the majority of
Muslims do feel that Pakistan's involvement in the issue is altruistic,
there is no special enthusiasm for involving Pakistan in the resolution
of the problem. This is underscored by the response of 66 per cent that
Pakistan's involvement has been bad for the region and a like number who
believe that the presence of foreign militants has only damaged the Kashmiri
cause.
A selection of responses provides
a pointillist image: 88 per cent believe that stopping infiltration of
militants across the LoC will help bring peace to the region; 93 per cent
believe that economic development and reduction of poverty will help toward
the same end; rejecting fundamentalist causes, 72 per cent believe that
banning TV, beauty parlours and cinemas will not bring about peace. The
Mori poll provides a critical opening for policy-makers in New Delhi. It
endorses India's strategy of winning peace by conducting 'free and fair'
elections. It also points to the need to adopt an integrated set of policies
that will get the security forces back to the barracks and address the
issue of better governance.
Prime minister Atal Behari Vajpayee
raised the slogan 'free and fair' for the coming elections in the state.
The challenge now is to make sure that the elections meet this criterion.
The task is not easy and opposition will come not just from the separatists
and jehadis, but from the existing power structure dominated by the Abdullah
family. Support for the National Conference is at 18 per cent and for the
Hurriyat at 22 per cent. The figures could be skewed because the polling
was done in and around urban centres. The Congress with 29 per cent of
respondents' support and Shabbir Shah's J&K Democratic Freedom Party
(16 per cent) displayed a surprising reservoir of strength. The Hizbul
Mujahideen found favour with 11 per cent and the jehadi groups just 9 per
cent support from the respondents.
Beyond the elections, there are
other policy lines that can be worked upon; 87 per cent of those polled
believe that direct consultations between the Indian government and the
people of Kashmir will help in bringing about peace. There may be a message
for the government in this, but the Hurriyat should not ignore the message
either. So far, the Hurriyat has shown little inclination to be anything
but naysayers. Their reaction to the Mori findings was typical: To hark
back to the sterile suggestion of holding a plebiscite in the Valley.
It is not easy to be neutral about
Jammu and Kashmir. Pakistan claims that Kashmir runs in its blood, while
India believes that it is its very marrow. The poll's findings are bound
to be seen through varying perspectives. But at the end of the day, the
poll is what it is - a useful statistical device that provides a reality
check of sorts for all the parties, India, Kashmiri separatists and Pakistan,
to come up with workable options to resolve the problem.
