Author: Irfan Husain
Publication: Dawn
Date: November 1, 2003
Extracting concessions aimed at
promoting peace with our neighbour out of the Pakistani establishment is
as tough as yanking out a healthy tooth from the jaws of a difficult patient.
The grudging, ungracious response
to India's 'peace package' took a week of foot-dragging; in this week,
hardly a day passed without the labels 'unoriginal' and 'rehashed' being
applied to the Indian proposals by spokesmen and 'sources' at the foreign
office. But it must be noted that many of New Delhi's suggestions were
aimed at undoing the mischief their own earlier decisions had caused. Sporting
ties as well as air, road and rail traffic had all been shut down by the
BJP government.
Seldom have there been two such
reluctant participants of a peace process. Over the last 55 years, attitudes
have calcified in the military and foreign affairs bureaucracies on both
sides. Simultaneously, the virulent propaganda that hangs over the subcontinent
like a permanent stench has done its work, poisoning the minds of successive
generations.
Journalists on both sides have fallen
in line, seldom questioning the status quo and the unimaginative mindset
that drives the Kashmir policies of both countries.
But it is Pakistan that suffers
far more, given the fragility of its economy and the proportionately heavier
burden the defence establishment imposes on us. In this space last week,
Akbar Zaidi, an economist had detailed the decline of the Pakistani economy
comparing it with India's robust performance over much of the past decade.
Even Bangladesh and Nepal have been performing better than we have.
Among the host of statistics he
gives to prove his point, for me the most telling were those for poverty:
while the number of those living below the poverty line in India has decreased
from 45 per cent in 1983 to 26 per cent today, in Pakistan the size of
this unfortunate group has increased from 17 per cent in 1987 to 33 per
cent today.
The writer concludes by saying:
"The difference is clear: India's economic growth has by far overtaken
Pakistan's, a trend that is unlikely to be reversed for some time to come.
The implications of this should be obvious to all. It is high time that
Pakistan's leadership realizes this fact and starts putting its economic,
social, political and foreign affairs houses in order".
So far, there is no sign that our
leadership has taken these unpleasant facts into their calculations. While
India with its huge economy can afford to maintain the present level of
confrontation indefinitely, we simply cannot. If the events following 9/11
gave our economy an infusion of dollars, this has not changed the macro-economic
realities. There are barely any fresh investments in industry; exports
continue to languish; expenditure on development is minimal; and unemployment
is soaring.
Any leadership concerned with the
well-being of the country would have taken steps to cut spending on defence.
But since our military establishment is thriving even if the rest of the
country is not, it continues its sabre-rattling to keep the Kashmir issue
alive instead of agreeing to put it on the back burner.
Let me quote another economist from
another country and another era: John Maynard Keynes was an iconic figure
among policy makers and economists and wrote many books and articles which
changed the direction of economic policy. As a student of the subject,
I read many of them, but none has lingered longer than this simple, elegant
truth: "Nothing is required, and nothing will avail, except a little, a
very little clear thinking."
Alas, this precious commodity is
in very short supply in our part of the world. Anybody with an ounce of
intelligence will tell you that when bargaining over something, it is best
to do so from a position of strength: the weaker you are compared to the
other side, the worst will the final settlement be for you. If, as is the
case currently, India is getting stronger while Pakistan is becoming progressively
weaker, our bargaining position is being constantly eroded.
A couple of years ago, I met a senior
Congress MP at a dinner in New Delhi where I asked him what his party would
do vis-a-vis Kashmir and Pakistan if it was in power. "We might accept
the Line of Control as the international border; you should not expect
anything more."
Clearly, time is not on our side.
As it is, apart from economic arguments, we have been steadily losing diplomatic
support. In the 1965 war, China, Turkey, Iran and Indonesia helped us in
many ways; in 1971, Nixon ordered the famous 'tilt' towards Pakistan; and
Clinton bailed us out of the Kargil mess. Who would lift a finger if there
were another war?
Our closest allies and friends have
long been advising us to enter into bilateral talks with India to sort
out the Kashmir issue. The rest of the world is bored stiff. And the people
of both countries are being held hostage by the rigid attitude among the
establishments of both countries.
But to be fair, the Indian prime
minister has shown more flexibility and far more willingness to go the
extra mile. And by taking the initiative time and again, he has made the
Pakistani leadership seem unreasonable and bellicose. The world simply
cannot understand why Pakistan won't agree to normalize relations while
continuing talks on Kashmir.
China and India went to war over
their respective claims to land in NEFA over 40 years ago, and the dispute
is still unresolved. But the two Asian giants went on trading and talking,
and now there is every chance that they will settle this problem through
long, patient negotiations involving considerable give-and-take.
Out of the dozen proposals from
New Delhi aimed at normalizing relations, Pakistan has put several in cold
storage, saying they should be studied and discussed further. This has
been the standard bureaucratic response to fresh ideas on both sides. Some
15 years ago, I led an official delegation to New Delhi to negotiate a
cultural agreement between the two countries. Simultaneously, a colleague
from the interior ministry was holding talks to ease travel restrictions,
and turned down proposal after proposal to permit freer movement of students,
tourists and businessmen.
Since then, things have got even
worse. Isn't it time we grew up?
