Author: Arindam Banerji
Publication: Rediff on Net
Date: November 5, 2003
URL: http://us.rediff.com/news/2003/nov/05ariban.htm
Remember those good old days when
the Pakistan army masterminded and participated in the Taliban's genocidal
war against the Afghan populace -- well, worry not, those good days are
back.
Afghanistan's Zabul province is
now back under Taliban control and a few weeks ago, four Pakistani army
officers actively working with the Taliban in Zabul were arrested and handed
over to the US forces. Welcome to the swamp -- we're open for business
again!!
Ah!! but the story gets even better.
Recollect those nerve-wracking days,
when Uncle Sam would not stoop to negotiate with those vile, villainous
Taliban -- they were instead bombed into oblivion, along with a few thousand
Afghan civilians. Well, those days of diplomacy-through-B52s are gone --
the Taliban are back in favour in Washington.
US Assistant Secretary of States
Richard Armitage met with Taliban's ex-foreign minister Wakeel Ahmad Mutawakil
in Kandahar during his recent visit to Afghanistan. Mutawakil was recently
released from custody for helping the US smoke the peace pipe with other
senior members of the Taliban.
In short, Uncle Sam may be 'preparing
to sub-contract its Afghanistan policy to Pakistan and the Taliban' and
as The Telegraph puts it:
'Pakistan will once again get an
instrument to interfere in Afghan affairs directly. The situation may begin
to look a little bit better in the short run but eventually it would lead
to the unraveling of the entire arrangement put together by the international
community in Afghanistan.'
As if to prove this very point,
on October 17, 40 Taliban prisoners, including several Taliban commanders
and the brother of former Taliban defence minister Mullah Ubaidullah, mysteriously
'disappeared without detection' from a high-security prison in southern
Afghanistan. And now, we hear that Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai is
beginning discussions with 'moderate elements within the Taliban' -- the
release of swamp-monsters-2. (see article.)
So, the very combination -- Pakistan
and Taliban, that helped bring down the WTC on 9/11 and
ethnically cleansed hundreds of
thousands of Afghans, are now being resurrected in Afghanistan - - and
this time with US blessings.
So, what happened here? Wasn't it
just a few days ago, that we had President Bush's special representative
to Afghanistan, Zalmay Khalilzad, tell The Washington Post that 'This Pakistan's
attitude to the Taliban is simply unacceptable. We want good relations
with Pakistan, and we appreciate their partnership in the campaign against
Al Qaeda but Pakistan must do more.'
And wasn't it just a few weeks ago,
that State Department officials were complaining to Time, as in 'a State
Department official: Even the Saudis are doing better than Pakistan in
countering Al Qaeda. The only thing Pakistan does is skim 10% off the top
of the Al Qaeda presence when we complain. The margin decreases when it
comes to the Taliban.'
Something sure has changed here!!
It's called weakening poll numbers.
Things start revealing themselves
when you study the recent Newsweek poll. 'Fifty percent of US voters would
replace Bush. Forty-nine percent of those polled disapproved of Bush's
handling of Iraq, the highest percentage so far on a Newsweek poll, while
44 percent approved.' Apparently, Bush's poll numbers have been going south
and fast.
You guessed it -- November 2004
elections are just over a year away -- national security be damned, local
US politics will rule decisions henceforth. Apparently, the daily procession
of body bags from Iraq, has the Americans a little peeved about this war
on terror. So, it is no comfort to the pS President when he finds out that
'A Taliban army is mobilizing in Pakistan for an attack into Afghanistan
before the start of winter. Up to 2,500 fighters are in Baluchistan province
preparing to cross the border on motorcycles and attack United States and
Afghan government forces, according to Western and Afghan intelligence
officials.'
Trouble at this point on the Afghan
front would spell disaster for the 2004 presidential campaign.
With the Pakistanis doing their
bit to help out their 'ally in the terror war' in the small matter of shipping
body bags from Afghanistan, it's no wonder that Uncle Sam may decide to
hand over 'nation-building' activities in Afghanistan to the Pakistani
army and the Taliban -- at least no American body bags from Kabul.
But, given the stalwart success
of these very same parties in 'building the nation of Afghanistan' during
the entire decade of the nineties, what are the implications for India
in all this?
There will be some miscellaneous
amounts of money put into the grubby hands of Pakistani generals -- like
the $400 million debt rescheduled by South Korea recently. But the Pakistanis
are looking for more than money -- they want help with India.
When the Turks were offered many
billions as baksheesh for their support in the war on Iraq, the Pakistanis
were mighty peeved. They felt they had prostituted themselves to the US
for too little money. So, this time any Pakistan support for reduction
of trouble in Afghanistan will cost the US tax-payer an arm and a leg and
probably way more than a few arms and legs to the Afghans and Indians.
Pakistan is going to extract its pound of flesh -- quite literally.
One-sided Arms Race
First, this constant blackmailing
whine of 'we need conventional parity, otherwise nobody knows what we'll
do with our nukes' will get some listening to.
I do not know, if it'll be F-16s,
more P3Cs or some ABM batteries -- but, permission to buy some or all of
the above will be given. Nothing, however, comes for free -- Uncle Sam
does not hand out weapons for free so Pakistan will have to pay. The Pakistani
shopping list is too long to be satisfied with the $1.5 billion military
aid that the US has promised; so a significant amount will have to come
from other sources -- such as cancelled social programmes, non-adopted
development plans, selling arms to terrorists and of course the ever dependable
drug-trade.
Does this pose a threat to India?
Certainly, it does, but let us not go overboard about the threat. That
our adversaries will update their weapon systems is to be expected. In
any case, India is already on a multi-year programme to enhance and modernise
its own armed forces. At least one of the goals of this modernisation is
to force exactly the Pavlovian reaction from a delusional $60 billion economy
that we're beginning to see now. For India's nearly $600 billion economy
the current upgrade is very modest and well under the 3 to 3.5 per cent
that it should be spending on defense. For Pakistan's economy, this is
going to be an expensive arms race -- so, in a sense this is exactly what
we were hoping for.
For Pakistan, this kind of spending
will mean that its already weak institutions will further deteriorate,
the confrontations between the army and average citizens will increase,
the long desired Pakistani transition to the seventh century will hasten
and centrifugal forces like the Baloch and Sindh nationalist fronts will
strengthen. Overall, Pakistan in 2005 to 2008 may well start looking like
Pakistan in 1971.
So, taking this line of thinking
a little further one of two things will happen -- either Pakistan will
implode or Uncle Sam fearing WMDs in the wrong hands, will issue some serious
jhapads to Pakistan and enforce some form of democracy. Either situation
is not wholly unacceptable to India.
Double Standards Strengthened
The second reward for this new Afghan
strategy will be America's full-fledged attempts to thwart any retaliation
against Pakistan's escalating attacks.
After the recent Israeli attacks
against Syrian terrorist camps, Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf complained
to the US that they would start a war (read nuclear war), if India carried
out pre-emptive strikes against Pakistani terrorist training camps. After
all Pakistani terrorists, oops freedom-fighters, are well within their
rights to go and beat in the brains of 9 year olds, shoot down two-year-old
informers or play ethnic-cleansing games at the expense of Pakistani Shias
-- what ever could be wrong in setting up camps for such brave jihadis.
Pakistan, however, has become desperate
on the Kashmir issue -- it has noticed that due to the growth of the Indian
economy, its extortion and threats against India work less and less every
year in most national capitals around the world. Furthermore, major jhapads
like the deep US- supported ties with Israel, invitation from the Gulf
Cooperation Council to which they were not invited in spite of repeated
begging and constant support for Indian position by the UK have all had
serious impact on the dignity of the jihadi generals.
Pakistani generals now understand
that another few years of 6 to 8% Indian growth will mean that they will
have to bid goodbye to their 'Kashmir cause' and hence, to their pampered
lives and even possibly to their country and source of loot. This has made
them extremely needy -- the water situation in Punjab and Sindh has only
exacerbated this. Hence, you are beginning to see some of this desperation
come out in the open, as in:
* Cross-border attacks by Pakistani
SSG/BAT commandos in the past month are a new escalation -- this kind of
a thing does not happen every year.
* Given that the immediate US needs
disappear after the November 2004 elections -- expect the Pakistanis to
try stupid stunts like trying cross-border attacks in the middle of winter
in order to precipitate things before the music stops (see rediff article.)
* A large number of the terrorist
deaths in the last few weeks have been due to full frontal attacks on security
forces -- this is a very rare happening. What has suddenly caused this?
Reports state that Pakistani terrorists are being encouraged to 'make things
happen' quickly.
* Reactivation of Dawood Ibrahim's
D-company in terrorist activities against India has been reported by Indian
intelligence.
* The not-so subtle threat by Musharraf's
buddy about 'retarding Indian economic growth,' unless Kashmir is taken
care of.
* The 100 detonators found near
Nasik just half an hour before a pilgrim filled train passed through the
tunnel makes it clear that the intent was to trigger another communal carnage.
* Reports from Intelligenceonline.net
like 'The British foreign intelligence service, MI-6, has warned India
to expect a major terrorist strike from PoK, and while the immediate target
could be military sites along the border and Line of Control, attacks on
nuclear installations are not ruled out. In the past weeks, Pakistani military
officers and commentators have been speaking of India's resilience to terrorist
attacks, and the suggestion is that India could be staggered only by a
13-December-like attack on the Houses of Parliament, but this time, MI-6
has warned of targeting atomic installations.'
This desperation and the resulting
cost in Indian lives, will be met with strong US pressure on India and
even possibly subtle threats not to retaliate against the terrorist state.
Pakistan in return will feel further emboldened to carry out escalating
attacks on India, with fairly limited possibilities of facing any retaliatory
action. So, expect more 9 year olds beaten to death and 4 year olds shot
through their chests, by Pakistani braves.
Musharraf also needs some gesture
of Indian capitulation, to keep his jihadi populace happy -- so, there
will also be significant US pressure on Vajpayee to go back on his statement
of 'no bilateral talks with Pakistan at SAARC.' This pressure will take
the form of both bribes like access to dual use technologies, as well as
threats or the odd planted hatchet-job articles.
Of course, to give the quid pro
quo a touch of reality, you can always count on the nautanki factor. A
couple of days ago, over generous helpings of nimbu pani and samosas, invited
international reporters feasted close-up, over the killing of Al Qaeda
keedas by the brave army of Pakistan. As B Raman suggested -- some magical
shooting happened; the bullets only struck the non-Pakistanis in the group.
Drama over, everything is back to safe and sound -- for Al Qaeda of course.
In return for the matinee and free munchies, the press-wallahs gushed all
over Western media 'wah-wah!! Totaal Al Qaeda killers - these Pakees yaar!!
Pass the chutney, please.' Oscar nominations may follow for jihadi General
Aziz Khan -- who knows.
Now, here's a short compilation
of things that I expect to happen in the coming months:
* Pakistan's war on Indian civilians
will continue with increasing involvement from Pakistani regulars and special
forces. India will be strongly dissuaded from retaliation or self-defence.
Expect, winter attacks this year, though.
* Pakistan will get some more arms
and probably will get Indian acceptance to come to the table for talks,
in spite of continuing terrorism.
* The US will get a quieter Afghanistan
till 2004, but also the risks against the US public will increase -- since,
the Pakistan-Afghan swamp has just been refilled with state (Pakistani)
supported terrorists -- now with a wink and a nod from the US.
* Pakistan will play little brother
at meetings such as OIC to try and scuttle anti-US resolutions. As a country,
whose leadership decrees are issued from somewhere in Virginia, Pakistan's
leaders will prove to be a much better spokesperson for US views in the
Islamic world, than Saudi Arabia.
* India will increase its arms purchases
and so will Pakistan. The cost to Pakistan will be tremendous, since India
will raise the stakes in weapon systems. Ships, aircraft, BVR missiles
and submarines do not come cheap. Destabilisation in Pakistan due to excessive
army spending is a definite possibility and so are highly dangerous transfers
of WMD technologies to terrorists or rogue states.
* India willy-nilly will have to
respond with some covert activities within Pakistan and some support for
the Baloch and Sind national fronts. Pakistani institutions cannot handle
such attacks and will reply with untold aggression against Pakistanis.
Essentially, the US will have achieved exactly what it has been trying
to avoid.
* Of course, the Afghans will increasingly
come under Pakistani-Taliban edicts, like no school for girls and no music.
Uncle Sam will play the fiddle till November 2004, as the Taliban is reinvented
as a moderate entity
All this, basically because George
junior wants 'peace in Afghanistan' till November 2004 -- but at what cost
to Indian and Afghan lives. At this point, I like many other Indians, feel
much more comfortable with General Wesley Clark's foreign policy vision
than what Bush is putting out. In his interview with Newsweek's Evan Thomas,
Clark identifies what should be the central focus of the war on terrorism:
Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. Without drastic change in Pakistan and Saudi
Arabia, the benefits of a democratic Iraq to the war on terror will likely
be marginal -- at least he's put his finger squarely on where the issues
need to be worked. The rest of the Democratic field hasn't exactly made
Saudi Arabia or Pakistan high priorities, even as they attack Bush's stewardship
of the war on terror. By and large, the candidates echo Bush's silence
on Pakistan. Though the observation cries out for elaboration, Clark is
identifying what it will take to win the war on terrorism. And Clark has
won wars before.
