Author: Tim Luard
Publication: BBC News
Date: November 4, 2003
URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/3236683.stm
"As close as lips and teeth" is
how China always described its ties with its oldest friends. Apart from
North Korea, the most frequently quoted example was Pakistan.
But during a visit to Beijing, President
Pervez Musharraf has found that Pakistan may no longer be quite such a
special friend of its major arms supplier after all.
Like North Korea, it looks like
being a victim of China's newfound desire to be friends with almost everyone.
In his first day of talks with the
new Chinese leadership, General Musharraf had hoped to finalise an agreement
for them to help him build a nuclear power plant - the second such facility
to be built in Pakistan with Chinese assistance.
But there was no mention of it among
the eight agreements signed after his talks with Chinese President Hu Jintao
on Monday.
Diplomatic sources were quoted as
saying that the two sides could not conclude a deal on the nuclear project
and that negotiations were continuing.
Perhaps even worse for Pakistan's
leader was the news that China is now preparing to hold joint military
exercises with his country's arch enemy, India.
The Chinese and Indian navies will
conduct joint operations in the Bay of Bengal later this month and their
air forces are also considering joint fighter jet operations, according
to reports in the Chinese state media.
China and Pakistan did hold unprecedented
naval exercises of their own off the coast of Shanghai last month. And
Beijing continues to reassure Islamabad that their friendship is "one of
a kind".
But Pakistan is worried about the
growing warmth of China's relations with India, said Professor Zhu Feng
of the School of International Studies at Beijing University.
"China still takes its traditional
ties with Pakistan seriously, but it is trying to soften its old strategic
alliance and encourage Pakistan to respond to India's moves towards peace,"
he told BBC News Online.
"China's original alliance with
Pakistan was based on the threat to both countries from India and its allies.
But since the end of the Cold War and the events of 9/11 such military
alliances have weakened. China is now developing sound and healthy relations
with India."
There are already signs that China
has become more balanced in its position on the conflict between the two
South Asian powers over Kashmir, said Raja Mohan, Strategic Affairs Editor
of The Hindu newspaper.
"Over a period of time China will
have to factor into its overall stance in the region its growing stakes
in its trade, political and military relations with India," he said.
Beijing and Delhi resumed high-level
talks last month to resolve their long-running border disputes in Kashmir
and Arunachal Pradesh, which led to war in 1962. Beijing media have also
ceased to refer to another disputed territory, Sikkim, as being outside
India.
Trade
And the trade relationship between
the two Asian giants has become one of the fastest-growing in the world.
India, for its part, wants to make
sure that the flow of nuclear and missile technology that China has allegedly
been providing to Pakistan is halted for good.
India would like China to have the
same restraining influence on Pakistan that it is now exerting on North
Korea, Raja Mohan said.
Beijing has been nudging its old
communist allies in Pyongyang towards nuclear disarmament talks with the
United States and regional powers, as part of a more positive and engaging
foreign policy style adopted by the new Chinese leadership.
China's diplomatic and economic
influence is growing and it is no longer acting in a way that is openly
confrontational, according to China specialist Michael Yahuda, professor
emeritus of international politics at the London School of Economics and
visiting scholar at George Washington University.
"It will not abandon Pakistan. It
is playing a canny game, seeking to have the best of all worlds - and to
a certain extent it is succeeding," he said.
Few observers believe China will
apply the sort of pressure on Pakistan over the nuclear issue that it has
on North Korea - however much the United States would like it to.
"Pakistan is very different from
North Korea", said Jia Qingguo, professor of international relations at
Beijing University.
In his view, China will continue
to maintain its close political and military ties with Pakistan.
After all, he said, other countries
such as the United States and Japan are using their close relations with
India in the same way, to counterbalance Chinese and Pakistani power.
But China does take concerns about
non-proliferation seriously these days, as part of its more open, flexible
and co- operative foreign policy, according to Professor Jia's colleague,
Zhu Feng.
The deal to help build the latest
nuclear plant will probably still go ahead, since it has already been agreed
in principle and China has a long history of close military cooperation
with Pakistan, he said.
"But China may be slowing things
down by insisting on stricter compliance with international safeguards,"
he said.
Other sources say the whole deal
may have stalled because of Chinese alarm at unconfirmed reports of Pakistani
nuclear supplies to Saudi Arabia.
There is no doubt that General Musharraf's
influence over the Taleban - and his presumed ability to help stem the
tide of Islamic separatism - make him a friend worth hanging onto for China.
According to Chinese state television,
the Pakistani president vowed on Monday to oppose terrorism as well as
the East Turkestan Islamic Movement, which China accuses of seeking independence
for the Xinjiang region in China's north-west.
Xinjiang's Communist Party secretary
alleged in September that the group's members have trained in Pakistan
and have links to al-Qaeda.
