Author: Rajendra Prabhu
Publication: Organiser
Date: June 6, 2004
Our media analysts seem to be as
eager to be seen on the bandwagon of success as the political figures.
Only last December, these analysts were praising the 'spin doctors' of
the BJP, more specifically Arun Jaitley and Pramod Mahajan to the skies,
attributing the sweeping victory of the party in the Assembly elections
in three out of four major states to their 'brilliant' strategy, their
data banks and their computer-based analysis of every constituency, almost
streetwise.
This time the tables have been turned
against the BJP and its alliance, the praise is all for the Congress strategists
like Congress economic think-tank Jairam Ramesh and public relations consultant
Dilip Cherian (of Perfect Relations). How the underdog managed to come
from behind and surprise the upper dog! The much praised brilliance of
the earlier spin doctors was forgotten; here are the new spin doctors.
The spin doctors of both combinations
have had their day of glory. But now they seem to say the same thing. If
Arun Jaitley is the author of the thesis that it is not the business of
the government to run business, Jairam, who made a brilliant impact while
at Boston University and is as eloquent a speaker as Arun Jaitley, is not
singing a different tune. Jairam told Shekhar Gupta, editor of Indian Express
in the NDTV interview: "You really do require a public sector in some areas
but you don´t need a public sector to run airlines, to run hotels,
make bread, make soft drinks..." BJP´s two Aruns-targets of some
of the party´s own critics-should be happy at the unintended compliment.
Just look at the events between
May 15 and May 25. On May 17 the markets crash a second time over fears
of Congress succumbing to the Leftist rhetoric against free enterprise
and economic reforms. The Congress goes into action with Dr Manmohan Singh
issuing a statement and asking the government to act to stop the slide.
By May 19 it is clear that Sonia Gandhi is 'renouncing' the crown and Dr
Singh would be the new Prime Minister. The markets bounce back. Some of
the Left leaders continue to say their Marxist litany. But the Congress
gets P. Chidambaram, the Harvard educated former Finance Minister of the
'dream budget' fame to man the North Block and another business- friendly
face, Kamal Nath to preside over Udyog Bhavan. The markets stop their wild
swing.
The draft common minimum programme
of the UPA says: "The UPA government will ensure that public investment
in agriculture and irrigation is stepped up in a signifciant manner. .
. ensure that flow of rural credit is doubled. . . ease the burden of debt
and high interest rates on farm loans... a special programme for dryland
farming. . . controls that depress incomes of farmers will be systematically
removed... fair and renumerative prices for farmers across the country..."
Is this a mirror image of what the
NDA also promised in its manifesto? "...Make agriculture renumerative even
to small and marginal farmers... double the rate of growth of public and
private investment in agriculture...a national mission for rainfed agriculture...
completion of all the ongoing irrigation projects within five years. .
. ensure enhanced credit flow to the (farm) sector, make credit affordable
at interest rates lower than the PLR... strengthen co-operative banks and
other cooperative credit institutions... comprehensive crop insurance..."
and so on. Both documents say much the same thing, though the NDA, as the
then ruling party, is more detailed and specific in its commitments.
You may even ask what is the difference
between what the NDA says about the contentious Ayodhya issue and what
the UPA lays down: NDA: "judiciary´s verdict should be accepted by
all. At the same time, efforts should be intensified for dialogue and a
negotiated settlement. . ." UPA: "will await the verdict of the courts,
while encouraging negotiations... for an amicable setlement". Both promise
6 per cent of GDP on education, both call for economic reforms, both say
about public-private partnership in infrastructure development and so on.
While NDA is committed to the riverlinking project, UPA draft says that
this project will be examined. There are all manner of degrees of differences
in emphasis, actual allotments, etc., but in details and specifics, NDA
scores. One is more right of Centre, the other is more left of Centre,
specially on issues like future of the public sector. It seems econo-mics
unite while politics divide.
"I came to privatisation not out
of any ideological conviction. I came to reform the public sector purely
out of pragmatic reasons. Having worked in the government for 15 to 20
years, I became convinced in the early 90s that the political economy of
the Indian state-the Indian neta and the Indian babu-will never allow the
public sector the true managerial and commercial autonomy. . ." Not just
Jairam, this could well be the statement of P. Chidambaram, Dr Singh and
many Congressmen in the new government as well; those who have been exposed
to the Knowledge Economy and know what the compulsions of globalisation
are.
But do we not discern in these words
a bit of an echo of what Arun Shourie-much maligned by the Left-has also
been saying all along? "Those who have denounced the reforms when they
were out of office have, when they assumed office, continued them in the
same direction,"-that is Arun Shourie in the Indian Express of last February
5.
"Mr Rajiv Gandhi assumed office
amidst great hope. Not burdened by the past, he looked to the future. He
initiated changes of various kinds-from technology missions to retraining
of civil servants. . ." Is this well-deserved praise of the Congress icon
from Jairam Ramesh or Kamal Nath, both of whom were working with Rajiv?
No. These are the words of Arun Shourie in the same newspaper.
Are the two alliances closely parallel
at least in economic policy? What difference does it make to the polity
if alternatively the one is elected first and then the other, and again
the first and again the second? This is what is called "the chapati effect"-to
quote Prof. Raj Krishna, who coined the word long back in the 70s. First
you press the chapati with right hand and then with the left hand and then
again with the right and so on; the more you do that, the better the product
gets.
The Indian polity is the chapati
and the government and the Opposition are the two hands, alternately changing
the seat. Last December it was the turn of the BJP, this summer it is the
turn of the Congress and its allies. Within a year there would be more
elections-to the state Assemblies-and the chapati effect might still be
seen-the underdogs and overdogs changing places with some help from their
respective spin doctors.
Nor are the political targets static.
In the 70s and the 80s, everyone else wanted to isolate and defeat the
Congress. Throughout the 1970s, the then Jan Sangh and the CPM were working
together in Parliament to pin down the Congress government. In 1977, Jan
Sangh merged into the Janata Party to be part of the Morarji Government
and the Left supported that government. On Bofors, BJP and the Left acted
together against the Congress, quit Lok Sabha en masse and thus forced
an election. The V.P. Singh government that emerged after the fractured
results remained in power for 11 months-only so long as the BJP and the
Left could support it like its right hand and the left hand, as this correspondent
commented at that time.
Earlier too, in the state government,
there were the alliances of everyone, from Jan Sangh to the CPI and Congress
defectors forming the Samyukta Vidhayak Dal governments that came down
crashing as easily as they went up to displace elected Congress governments.
Remember Charan Singh and Govind Narayan Singh and B.P. Mandal governments
in 1967). In the 90s, there was a dramatic turn and others began to join
to isolate BJP. In 1996-98 the DMK was in the anti-BJP alliance. In 1999
it was with the BJP-led alliance; it is back again with the Congress-led
alliance now.
In the 90s the Congress moved away
from the licence raj to launch liberalisation and consort with globalisation.
In the year 1999, the BJP in alliance with others was changing from its
traditional economic orthodoxy to embrace liberalisation and confront globalisation
and shed the Fortress India attitude. Who knows what will be the contentious
issue in 2009 or even earlier? There are no permanent enemies in politics
and once Advani frankly admitted that even BJP and Congress could come
together to isolate someone else. Friends, enemies, allies-they change
places rapidly.
The NDA government was constantly
pulled back by the lack of majority in the Rajya Sabha. Now it would be
the turn of the Congress led alliance: After last December´s state
Assembly elections, the BJP can send more MPs to the Rajya Sabha. This
time, the Congress has Andhra with a big majority and BJP has Karnataka
with a sizeable strength. The UPA´s majority in Lok Sabha will have
to gain cooperation from the NDA´s majority in the Rajya Sabha. The
chapati effect will continue... To quote Vajpayee´s parting comment
again: "We have lost, India has won."
