Author:
Publication: News Insight
Date: October 15, 2004
Harkishen Singh Surjeet is wrecking
our lever against China.
It is the usual story, but now,
the Stalinist commissar, Harkishen Singh Surjeet, has inserted himself
to wreck the remains of India-Taiwan relations. Taiwan-India trade was
$1.4 billion last year and $1.8 billion in six months since and could close
at $2.5-3 billion, but the CPI-M is bringing enormous pressure on the UPA
to clamp down on ties with the breakaway republic. Surjeet's demolition
job on Taiwan is infinitely worse than his sanctions against the actor
Anupam Kher in the censor board, but it has unfortunately got no press
so far.
In September, Surjeet spoke to the
foreign minister, Natwar Singh, not to follow a dual relationship with
China and Taiwan. Like most of the world, including the United States,
India has adopted a one-China policy since the time of Nehru, but like
everyone else, we pursue a relationship with Taiwan in the interstices,
a relationship first daringly advanced by P.V.Narasimha Rao even as he
pursued friendship with the Mainland. Subsequent governments have built
on this in small and big ways, and last year, during the 92nd anniversary
of the establishment of Kuomintang led by Chiang Kai-shek, Taiwan's founding
father, the Indian and Taiwanese flags were set together, possibly for
the first time in a public reception at a New-Delhi five-star hotel. The
foreign office was duly represented by two middle-level officials.
With the UPA in power, there was
a sense that things would change, because the CPI-M, its external ally,
is fraternally joined to the Chinese Communist Party, but Natwar himself,
to his credit, made no anticipatory attempts to reorient old policies.
The policies themselves were old Congress, so there was no disconnect.
Independently, in his report in August, the then foreign secretary, Shashank,
favoured a strong non-military relationship with Taiwan. In other words,
more trade and investments, more inbound tourists, greater scientific and
technological cooperation, because Taiwan has world-class tool manufacturing
capabilities and makes very advanced software applications, plus limited
but significant political engagement. The report envisioned intelligence-sharing
against terrorists, and Taiwanese cooperation in case terrorists use their
amazing banking services.
The present foreign secretary, Shyan
Saran, is also of a mind to pursue a strong relationship with Taiwan. His
argument is if the rest of the world can do it, why can't we. There is
indeed more proactivity in favour of Taiwan than ever before. While the
US has consistently covered it against Chinese military threats, surprisingly,
some African countries sought in the latest UN General Assembly session
to readmit it as a member, but of course China used its enormous clout
to stall it. The UN membership transferred from Taiwan to China in 1971,
when it was simultaneously admitted to the UN Security Council and Taiwan
expelled. Risking China's anger, Japan, ASEAN, South Korea and others in
the Asia-Pacific region all do business with Taiwan. Taiwan is a lever
against growing Chinese hegemony that no country wants to give up, including
India.
But Surjeet has gone about dangerously
wrecking this leverage. Not convinced that Natwar would actively follow
his instructions against Taiwan, he reportedly spoke to Sonia thereafter,
stressing to go against Taiwan, Israel, US arms to Nepal, and so on. Subsequently,
foreign-office officials say, Natwar had to sanction links with Taiwan,
and this reached ridiculous levels at the 93rd founding day celebrations
of Kuomintang recently in Delhi.
The Taiwan Economic and Cultural
Centre, which enjoys the private status of an embassy, was instructed not
to set India and Taiwan's flags together at the celebrations, the Taiwan
ambassador, Andrew Kao, was advised not to make a formal speech, invitation
cards could not carry the Taiwanese national symbol, and predictably, Indian
foreign-office officials were anxious not to appear officially. This could
all be dismissed as a harmless joke, but the Taiwanese are beyond taking
it lying down. They are sickened being treated as pariahs, and we could
lose a lever, and crucial investments, technologies, and security advantages.
Right now, a Taiwanese delegation
is examining prospects of fisheries, food processing, finished timber export,
small tools production, water processing, chemicals, and computer hardware
manufacture in Kerala, a backward state. Besides Kerala, Taiwan is keenly
considering Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Chhatisgarh for
investments. So far, investments have been largely through third countries.
If the Indian government is not receptive, Taiwanese investments would
flow into Nepal, Bangladesh or Sri Lanka. Surjeet's wrecking is perverse,
if you consider that China has actively encouraged more than five thousand
large and medium Taiwanese investments in the Mainland.
The security deficit from disengaging
with Taiwan is many times more considerable, over and above leverage considerations.
India believes that it can and should project force westward all the way
to the Persian Gulf and eastward upto the South China Sea, but without
an ally like Taiwan, this would be impossible at least in the east. If
India were to, say, deploy attack submarines in the South China Sea, China
would certainly cripple them with cyber warfare, and only Taiwan can provide
a cover against this in the vicinity, because for years now, they have
countered Chinese cyber terror.
On all aspects of China, Taiwan
has more advanced intelligence. Such intelligence-sharing would entail
give and take, some secretly negotiated Indian political concessions, well
worth given to contain a ruthless strategic rival, but unbelievably, one
man is coming in the way, Surjeet, and it is no more clear that the CPI-M
backs him all the course. At least two or three CPI-M leading lights are
privately questioning China's intentions towards India, but it has obviously
not built up to such opposition as to obstruct Surjeet's destructive enterprise.
Surjeet's relationship with the Chinese ambassador, Hua Junduo, is causing
concern in diplomatic circles (Commentary, "New game," 16 August 2004),
and the distance he is forcing on Taiwan flatly contradicts the view of
Indian intelligence, which wants the closest ties. Under Surjeet's pressure,
the foreign office has "advised" Taiwan to issue only eight-thousand visas
a year, while the demand is higher.
Viewed from a distance, Harkishen
Surjeet's meddling in foreign affairs is dangerous and destructive. Since
the death of M.Basavapunniah, the CPI-M has not had a dedicated foreign-policy
analyst, and anyhow, being in government and analysing foreign policy from
the outside are two different things. The CPI-M has never been in the Centre,
and has, therefore, no hands-on experience of finance, defence, home, or
foreign affairs, but it is standing on judgement on all these matters,
and forcing a weak coalition government to enforce it. In the Taiwan case,
it seems one man's whim against the weight of establishment experience
and thinking. There cannot be a worst case of a tail wagging the dog.
