Author: Ashok K Mehta
Publication: The Pioneer
Date: June 15, 2005
The Assam Government is at it again.
Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi is at loggerheads with the Governor, Lt Gen
(Retd) Ajay Singh, and just stopped short of calling the President's nominee
to the State a liar. Gen Singh had written to the President in his report
that 6,000 migrants are crossing over into Assam from Bangladesh every
day. Not true, says Mr Gogoi, what does the Governor know? The fact, he
says, is that the minorities voted against the Congress in the last election.
Mr Gogoi also questioned a similar
statement made by Union Minister of State for Home, Mr Sriprakash Jaiswal.
The Prime Minister, who is a Rajya Sabha MP from Assam, is maintaining
a diplomatic silence and is confining himself sensibly to ensuring more
and more schools are opened in Assam so that the children of migrants don't
grow up feeling alienated from India.
Whatever be the Prime Minister's
strategy and the Chief Minister's views, what the Governor does know, however,
is that Assam faces an Assembly election next year and it is vital for
the Congress to win it. So the alteration of the demographic boundaries
of constituencies continues unabated, taking advantage of the fact that
the opposition is weak in Assam.
Today, no one remembers the historic
operation that the Bhutanese Royal Army fought against the ULFA to remove
camps from Bhutanese territory. Operation All Clear, as it was known, had
to be resorted to, because of the cumulative effect of the process we see
today: Migrants came to Assam, banded together to demand their political
and economic rights and, over a period of time, turned into militant organisations.
They had then to be eliminated by the forces of the state. Wouldn't it
have been simpler to have not encouraged migration at all?
Sometimes, the Indian Army can be
excused for wondering why so many State governments are so keen to create
problems for themselves. Every Northeastern State has a history of first
colluding with the militants and then asking the Army to crush them. In
October 2002, Chief Minister of Meghalaya admitted two of his ministers
had links with the UG. One of them, whose real name was Adolf Lu Hitler,
was arrested.
Similarly, a minister was arrested
in Arunachal Pradesh in May 2003. Things were so bad in 1995, that the
Chief of Army Staff, Gen SR Chowdhury, and Eastern Army Commander, Lt Gen
RN Batra, had publicly elaborated on the infamous nexus and how it was
undermining operations of the security forces. In Manipur, the State Government
was even accused of hindering security force operations against UG. In
1997, Union Home Minister Indrajit Gupta and Manipur Chief Minister signed
an MoU to investigate the nexus but the report remained underground.
The joke at the time was that while
Manipur Chief Minister Reishang Keishing, a failed politician, was trying
to be a good soldier, Gorkhaland's Subash Ghisingh, a failed soldier, was
attempting to become a good politician. It is not just in J&K but in
the Northeast too, where the security forces have been combating insurgency
with one hand tied behind their back, while the State cohabits with non-state
actors.
In Assam, the problem is an institutional
one. It is relatively straightforward. Over successive years, Congress-led
governments have encouraged settling migrants illegally along the Assam-Bangladesh
border.
This was at the core of the growth
of the Asam Gana Parishad (AGP) and gave rise to the ULFA when the migrants
got together to protect their interest. The Illegal Migrants (Determination
by Tribunals) Act, 1983, applicable only in the State of Assam for the
purpose of detecting foreigners, was created but it was felt that the Act
did not really work because the onus of proving an illegal migrant was
put on the accuser rather than the accused. Migration is a social, economic
and political problem. When claims of ownership of land are questioned,
it can lead to an explosive situation.
When current Governor of J&K,
Gen SK Sinha, was posted in Guwahati, he sent a 42-page report to the President
expressing his alarm at the manner in which the demographic structure of
Assam was being altered. He pointed out in his report that (a) Fifty-seven
of Assam's 126 constituencies have shown more than 20 per cent increase
in the number of voters between 1994 and 1997 whereas the all-India average
is just 7.4 per cent. (b) Muslim population in Assam has shown a rise of
77.42 per cent over what it was in 1971 (there was no census in Assam in
1981). (c) Four districts in the State (Dhubri, Goalpara, Barpeta and Hailakandi)
are already Muslim-majority whereas three more are fast approaching that
stage. At the time of Independence, only Dhubri was a Muslim-majority district.
By conservative estimates, at least
1.5 million Bangladeshis are said to be living in the State. He attributed
all the above factors to population movement from Bangladesh which, he
said, would reduce the indigenous people of Assam to a minority.
These are more or less the same
charges that have now been made by Gen Ajay Singh. At that time, Mr Gogoi,
who was the Assam Congress chief, had said: "By saying that the Muslim
population in districts like Dhubri and Goalpara may one day demand secession
from India, the Governor has cast aspersions on their loyalty and commitment
to the country. This is unacceptable and unprecedented. We have, in fact,
called for his recall."
Now, Mr Gogoi is the Chief Minister.
So far Gen Ajay Singh's "recall" hasn't been sought, but who knows, in
these days of desperation, that might come as well. The UPA Government,
which incidentally is not for scrapping the IMDT Act and believes migration
should be viewed with sympathy and understanding, appears now to be caught
in a cleft stick. Its Home Minister says the influx of migrants is alarming.
But its Chief Minister says he can handle migrants fine - thank you. No
doubt we will know the exact extent of migrants when elections are held
and reports come in of clashes between the majority and the minority in
the lower Assam region that the Army will be required to sort out.
The 168-year-old Assam Rifles, called
the sentinels of the Northeast, may soon be taking over operational control
from the Army in the region. This is both a reflection of the capacity
of the Assam Rifles and the improved security situation. In its new role,
it will also be manning the border with Myanmar. By 2007, it will expand
from the present 40 to 46 battalions and in time take charge of Assam,
too. The pressure on the Army will reduce.
But before that, the Government
should reconsider its Northeast policy, especially its view of Assam. At
a seminar, Lt Gen (Retd) SK Pillai, former Deputy Chief of Army Staff and
DG Infantry, said that when the State becomes "a willing or unwilling collusive
partner with terrorist and secessionist groups, it begets a stable anarchy".
It is this condition of "stable anarchy" that currently prevails in many
areas of India's Northeast. Assam should draw some lessons from Operation
All Clear. Once insurgency begins, it is hard to put down and easier to
collaborate with. But in the end, the results are harmful all round. The
Army should know.
If development is the best safeguard
against insurgency, creating a middle class of stakeholders is vital for
its sustenance. Some bold steps are needed to strengthen internal security
and stability. Foremost among these is depoliticising national security
and cobbling together a consensus on it. Politicians with proven links
with UG should be sent to Siachen and left there. Governors from the military
act in national interest, whereas other governors and chief ministers act
in the interest of their party, and sometimes the UG.
