Author: Natalie O'Brien
Publication: The Australian
Date: January 11, 2006
URL: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,17787751%255E2702,00.html
Jemaah Islamiah-linked terrorists in southern
Thailand are believed to be planning to transform their insurgency from attacks
against the Thai state to bombings of Western tourists.
US terrorism expert Zachary Abuza has told
The Australian that the Muslim insurgency could spread from the hinterland
to beach resorts, such as Phuket, frequented by Western tourists.
Dr Abuza will tell the Foreign Correspondents
Club in Bangkok tonight there are also reasons to believe that JI may become
involved in such a plan being hatched by Thai insurgents.
The two-year insurgency, which has killed
more than a thousand people, has until this point been dominated by attacks
against symbols of the Thai state, such as police stations, and dominant religion,
such as Buddhist temples.
Attacks against Western tourists would mark
a turning point in Thailand's war on terror, and Dr Abuza said the shift could
be being driven by JI's sense of Islamist obligation to join battle with fellow
Muslims.
"An attack on an out-of-area soft target
is being considered as an option. They have not ruled it out," he said
yesterday. "They would target Phuket because, like Bali, it is a soft
target that would severely impact the economy and drive away foreigners in
droves."
The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade
has issued general travel warnings for Thailand, advising travellers to "exercise
a high degree of caution ... because of the high threat of terrorist attack".
"We continue to receive reports that
terrorists are planning attacks against a range of targets, including places
frequented by foreigners," the DFAT website warns. But the threats have
been more specific, with past intelligence acknowledging that the areas of
Phuket, Pattong Pattaya, Bangkok and the island of Samui could be targeted.
Another terrorism expert, Rohan Gunaratna,
also warned this week that terrorists were likely to attack Bangkok within
the year.
Neil Fergus, the chief executive of Intelligence
Risks, said tourist spots including beach resorts had been broadly considered
as targets, but Bangkok remained the biggest problem.
Although security in Thailand has been dramatically
improved in many areas, Mr Fergus said it would be difficult for any authority
to protect expatriate and bar areas frequented by tourists.
In the past 10 days, 19 people - five of them
policemen - have been killed in attacks in southern Thailand.
While a raid by militants two years ago on
a weapons depot in Narathiwat province is generally regarded as the start
of the Muslim insurgency, Dr Abuza said the violence had been spreading, albeit
slowly, for several years.
Dr Abuza said that while Thai authorities
claimed to have arrested 190 insurgents responsible for conducting or planning
operations in the past two years, very few of the insurgency's leaders had
been picked up.
The Government has also consistently denied
the trouble is part of any international terrorist network or that JI is involved.
Dr Abuza has warned that there are insurgent
leaders who want to take terrorism to the next level, and they could be helped
by JI or whatever form al-Qa'ida might take, by attacking places such as Bangkok
or Phuket.
