Author: IANS
Publication: The Times of India
Date: July 1, 2006
URL: http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/1695996.cms
President Pervez Musharraf is likely to be
ruling Pakistan for another 10 years amid signs that the country could become
more and more Islamic, according to an Indian strategic expert.
With the army backing him, Musharraf is determined
to win next year's general election and that means India will have to deal
with him for at least a decade more, Vikram Sood told a gathering here.
"Musharraf being the general that he
is, he would eventually want to make sure that he wins (the election) hands
down," Sood told a discussion at the Institute of Peace and Conflict
Studies.
"A general who has given the impression
that he is the saviour of Pakistan cannot afford to lose," he said. "I
don't think the army wants to lose either.
"At the same time, he also has to give
the impression of holding a free and fair election. How he is going to fine-tune
this has to be seen."
Sood quoted some Pakistani analysts as saying
that Musharraf planned to consolidate "Islamic democracy" for the
next five years and economic growth for another five.
"If that is the agenda, Musharraf is
going to be our neighbour for the next two parliamentary elections in our
country," said Sood, a former head of the Research and Analysis Wing
(RAW), India's external intelligence agency.
"Barring a bullet or a massive upheaval,
he will be around for (10 years)."
Sood, however, warned that if there was no
decisive verdict in favour of any party in Pakistan's elections, the vacuum
could get filled by rightwing parties of the Islamic variety.
He said Pakistanis might not want Islamists
in power but that country could end up electing an Islamist government like
it happened in Palestine.
"So we need to reckon the fact that Pakistan
is going to be get more and more Islamic," he warned, adding that the
idea of jehad was getting ingrained in that country's rural areas.
And despite the peace process, Pakistan remained
obsessed with the aim of neutralizing India's military superiority, Sood said.
"This obsession will not change unless
Pakistan's rulers realize or are made to realize that Pakistan has to pay
a price."
He also pointed out that Pakistan's anti-India
phobia had deprived it of a one billion-strong market and the chance of tapping
the booming Indian middle class eager to visit the country.
Sood said the US was getting somewhat impatient
with Pakistan because it felt it was not doing enough in the war on terror.
At the same time, Islamabad distrusted New
Delhi's growing ties with Washington and was trying to get further close to
Beijing as a counter.
